MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

13 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Recovering From 200-DMA Test

*RES 4: $0.7967 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*RES 2: $0.7911 - High Feb 6

*RES 1: $0.7847 - Hourly resistance Feb 12

*PRICE: $0.7842 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7809 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7756 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7625 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from 200-DMA test when combined

with daily studies correcting from O/S and the Bollinger base ($0.7777) limiting

follow through. Initial support is now noted at $0.7809 with bears needing a

close below to retain focus on $0.7729-56 where the 200-DMA is noted. Bears need

a close below $0.7729 confirm breaks of MAs & shift focus back to $0.7500 Dec

lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus to 2018 highs.

KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7345 To Target 2018 Highs

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: $0.7325 - Hourly resistance Feb 7a 

*RES 2: $0.7302 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7276 - High Feb 12

*PRICE: $0.7242 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7230 - Low Feb 12

*SUP 2: $0.7196 - Low Feb 9

*SUP 3: $0.7174 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: $0.7149 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday lacked follow through with bulls taking

comfort in support emerging ahead of the 200-DMA the recovery back towards the

21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to

2018 highs with a close above $0.7345 needed to return initial focus to

$0.7420-88. Bears currently focus on $0.7042-0.7149 where key DMAs are noted

with a close below to confirm focus on tests of 2017 lows ($0.6779).

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: NZ$1.0992 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0947 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0894 - High Feb 8

*RES 1: NZ$1.0847 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0825 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0798 - Hourly support Feb 12

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0743 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0728 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll last week with a sharp

sell-off back towards the 100-WMA. Follow through has been lacking with bears

needing a close below the 100-WMA to shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT

rising TL is located. The rally Thursday was aggressively rejected ahead of the

21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and

above NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y85.98-87.50 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y86.73 - High Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y86.56 - 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 1: Y85.37 - High Feb 9

*PRICE: Y85.21 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.76 - Low Feb12

*SUP 2: Y84.01 - 2018 Low Feb 9

*SUP 3: Y83.72 - Low June 22

*SUP 4: Y83.62 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with immediate bearish focus now on the

100-WMA. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to shift overall focus to tests of

the Y81.49 2017 low. O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Bulls still need a close above Y85.98 to ease bearish pressure and

above Y87.50 to confirm breaks of DMAs & shift focus back to Y88.50-89.09 where

the bear channel top is situated.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5834 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5805 - Daily Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5796 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: A$1.5662 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5620 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: A$1.5586 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: A$1.5510 - Hourly support Feb 1 

*SUP 4: A$1.5469 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 & 2yr highs remains less

than ideal for bulls who look for a close above to reconfirm initial focus on

A$1.5968. The dip below A$1.5630 has lacked follow through with bears now

needing a close below A$1.5620 to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and

below A$1.5586 to shift focus back to A1.5453-95 where 21 & 55-DMAs are

situated. Correcting O/B studies are now seen weighing.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 91.689 - Hourly support Jan 12a now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.523 - Hourly resistance Jan 12 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.227 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.013 - Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: 89.854 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.720 - Hourly resistance Feb 6 now support

*SUP 4: 89.373 - Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to 2018 lows failed to produce the close below

needed to add weight to the case for a test of the weekly bear channel base

(87.177). The close above 90.113 eased bearish pressure and shifted focus to

91.011-751. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

89.373 to return initial focus to 88.438 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above

90.567 to reignite bullish momentum.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1.2406 High Feb 7

*RES 3: $1.2363 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2327 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2296 Hourly resistance Feb 12

*PRICE: $1.2286 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2233 Low Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1.2204 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bears maintain their focus on $1.2092-1.2156. Daily studies

approaching O/S are a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls continue to look

for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above $1.2433 to return

focus to 2018 highs and then the weekly bear channel top ($1.2665). Overall

bears need a close below $1.1914 2018 lows to confirm a break of the 100-DMA

($1.1917) & shift focus back to $1.1489-1.1552.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.78-110.47 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 3: Y110.47 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 1: Y109.29 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*PRICE: Y108.68 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.42 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y108.03 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y107.89 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The pair remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA last week resulting in

fresh 2018 & 5mth lows. The lack of downside follow through is less than idea

with the Bollinger base noted at Y107.97. The Y109.78 resistance is key this

week. Bulls need a close above to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.67) and

bear channel top (Y109.39) to ease bearish pressure and above Y110.47 to

initially target Y111.22-112.49 where key DMAs and a bear channel top are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y134.79

*RES 4: Y135.09 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 2: Y134.15 Hourly resistance Feb 9

*RES 1: Y133.61 100-DMA

*PRICE: Y133.50 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.61 Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: Y131.96 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.83 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on last week's 2018 lows has seen

support start to emerge on dips with the pair currently pressuring the 100-DMA.

Bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to gain breathing room. A close above

Y134.79 is needed to hint at a shift higher in focus with above Y135.95 to shift

focus back to 2018 highs (Y137.50). While Y134.79 caps immediate focus remains

on Y130.59-131.15 where monthly lows and 200-DMA are noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1352.3 - High Jan 29 

*RES 3: $1339.0 - Hourly support Feb 6 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1332.6 - High Feb 7 

*RES 1: $1326.2 - High Feb 12

*PRICE: $1323.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1316.5 - Hourly support Feb 12 

*SUP 2: $1314.1 - Low Feb 12 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1303.1 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 highs continues and has seen a dip

back towards $1302.5-1305.9 where the 55-DMA is located only to bounce

aggressively which is less than ideal for bears. Bulls still need a close above

$1332.6 to ease bearish pressure and above $1374.9 to confirm focus on

$1391.8-1433.3. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight the

case for a test of the 200-DMA.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) 55-DMA Caps, Below 100-DMA Targets 200-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.57 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 2: $61.82 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: $60.65 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $59.11 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $58.55 - Hourly support Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $57.52 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $55.97 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Repeated failures to trouble 2018 highs resulted in a sell-off that

sees immediate focus now on the 100-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the

100-DMA to add weight to the case for a move then targeting the 200-DMA ($53.16)

although the 200-WMA may slow the move. Resistance layers have accumulated with

bulls now needing a close above the 55-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

$63.94 to initially target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]