MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7985 Targets $0.8118-62

*RES 4: $0.8043 - High Feb 2

*RES 3: $0.7985 - Low Feb 1 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7961 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7954 - High Feb 5

*PRICE: $0.7930 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7890 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7867 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7819 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7771 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from another dip back towards the 200-DMA has been

aggressive and sees bulls looking for a close above $0.7985 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA and return focus to the $0.8118-62 region where 2018 highs are

noted. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears need a close

below $0.7867 to gain breathing room. Overall below $0.7729 confirms breaks of

DMA & WMAS & shifts focus back to $0.7500 Dec lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7458 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28 

*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: $0.7420 - High Jan 31

*PRICE: $0.7403 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7364 - Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 3: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7238 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low has seen higher daily highs and

lows with Wednesday's gains enough to return focus to tests of 2018 highs. Bulls

look for a close above to then target $0.7558 2017 highs. Daily studies are well

place for gains. Bears now need a close below $0.7328 to gain breathing room and

below $0.7230 to shift focus back to $0.7130-74 where 55 ($0.7154) & 200

($0.7158) DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Close Below NZ$1.0700 To Confirm 100-WMA Break

*RES 4: NZ$1.0883 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0716 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - 2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: The pair has remained capped ahead of the 200-DMA with fresh 2018 &

6mth lows continuing and bears taking comfort as the pair tries to gain traction

below the 100-WMA. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0700 to confirm a break of

the 100-WMA and shift focus to NZ$1.0446-91 where the LT rising TL is located.

Bulls now need a close above the 200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

NZ$1.1073 to target 2017 highs (NZ$1.1290).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y86.56 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: Y84.31 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 2: Y83.62 - 100-WMA

*SUP 3: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*SUP 4: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the 100-WMA continue as does a lack of downside follow

through. Bears take comfort in the Y84.89 level capping Thursday as bulls now

need a close above Y84.89 to gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus

back to Y86.59-87.50 where key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on

Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows while Y84.89 caps. O/S studies remain a concern for

bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: O/B Studies Limit Topside Follow Through

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5857 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5756 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5673 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb so far with fresh

2018 & 2yr highs Wednesday suffering the same fate. Daily studies at O/B levels

and the weekly Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close

below A$1.5673 to gain breathing room and below A$1.5601 to shift initial focus

to A$1.5456-1.5546 where 21 (A$1.5525) & 55 (A$1.5459) are situated. Overall

below the 100-DMA (A$1.5363) targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 90.177 - High Feb 13 

*RES 3: 89.647 - Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: 89.429 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 

*RES 1: 89.057 - Hourly support Feb 14a now resistance

*PRICE: 88.660 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 87.627 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 3: 87.202 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 86.879 - Low Nov 4 2014

*COMMENTARY: The index remains heavy having failed to break above last week's

highs with immediate focus now back on 2018 lows and then the weekly bear

channel base (87.202). Daily studies are well placed for further losses. Bulls

now need a close above 89.647 to gain breathing room and above 90.567 to hint at

a move to 91.526-751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Focused On LT Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: $1.2665 LT Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 2: $1.2522 High Feb 1

*RES 1: $1.2510 High Feb 15

*PRICE: $1.2497 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2442 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2384 Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1.2330 Hourly resistance Feb 14a now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2277 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: Having closed above the 21-DMA ($1.2254) Tuesday gains Wednesday

see immediate focus back on the $1.2522-1.2665 region where the weekly bear

channel top and 2018 highs are situated. Daily studies are ideally placed for a

fresh leg higher. Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now

needing a close below $1.2384 to ease bullish pressure and below $1.2163 to

initially pressure $1.2017-92.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y108.03

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.54 Hourly resistance Feb 14a 

*RES 2: Y107.17 Hourly resistance Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y106.64 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: Y106.38 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.98 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 2: Y105.89 High Nov 9 2016 now support 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018/15mth lows leave the pair offered and open up for Y99.08

2016 lows. Immediate bearish focus is on the Y105.89 support with a close below

needed to add weight to the bearish case. The Y108.03 resistance remains key

with bulls needing a close above to hint at a decent correction. Overall bulls

need a close above Y109.79 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA (Y109.16) and bear

channel top (Y108.92) with above Y110.47 to shift focus higher.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Downside Follow Through Remains Lacking

*RES 4: Y134.49 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.94 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.43 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: Y131.59 2018 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.98 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018/3mth lows lack follow through which is a concern when

combined with daily studies at O/S levels. Bulls now need a close above Y133.78

to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (Y134.89) to hint at a move back

to 2018 highs with above Y135.95 to confirm. Bears need a close below Y132.43 to

gain breathing room. Overall a close below Y131.15 hints at a move back to

Y125.80-127.54 with below Y130.59 to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1374.9 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1359.7 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1357.0 - High Jan 26

*PRICE: $1354.4 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1345.5 - Hourly support Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1337.3 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1336.8 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dip back towards the 55-DMA saw an

aggressive break of the 21-DMA with focus now back on layers of resistance

$1357.0-1374.9. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1374.9 to confirm

focus on $1391.8-1433.3. Daily studies are well placed for gains. Bears need a

close below $1345.5 to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to $1302.5-1306.9.

NYMEX WTI TECHS: NYMEX WTI: (J18) Above $63.94 Targets 2018 High 

*RES 4: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 3: $63.08 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: $61.82 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: $61.40 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 3: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support 

*SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from very O/S are well placed for gains

following the bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA. The contract is gaining traction

above the 55-DMA ($60.90) adding to bullish confidence. Overall bulls look for a

close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close

below $59.60 to gain breathing room and below the 100-DMA to target the 200-DMA

($53.20).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]