MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

4 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

     Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7718

*RES 4: $0.7820 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7718 - Hourly resistance Mar 27

*PRICE: $0.7684 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7595 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7579 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains heavy with pressure back on 2018 lows and the

100-WMA just below. Bears look for a close below the 100-WMA to add weight to

the case for a test of $0.7500-80 where the weekly bull channel off 2016 lows is

noted. Bulls now need a close above $0.7718 to gain breathing room and above the

55-DMA ($0.7845) to shift initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to

$0.8135-62.

     KIWI TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 3: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7285 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7274 - High Mar 28

*PRICE: $0.7254 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7152 - 21-WMA

*SUP 3: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21

*SUP 4: $0.7147 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the falling daily TL off Feb highs

resulted in a sharp sell-off and bearish focus having returned to layers of

support $0.7130-81 where key DMA and WMAs are situated. Bears need a close below

the 55-WMA to shift initial focus to the $0.6952-0.7042 support region. Bulls

need a close above Wednesday's high to gain breathing room and above $0.7315 to

hint at a move back to 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0762 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*RES 2: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 1: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*PRICE: NZ$1.0614 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0559 - 2018 Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Last week's 2018 & 9mth lows lacked follow through with the bounce

seeing initial focus back on NZ$1.0669. Bulls still need a close above NZ$1.0669

to ease bearish pressure and above the 55-WMA (NZ$1.0818) to target NZ$1.1073

2018 highs. While NZ$1.0669 caps immediate bearish focus remains on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0468 today.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y81.96 - High Mar 28

*PRICE: Y81.93 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.50 - Hourly support Apr 3

*SUP 2: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows were seen in recent weeks with Bulls

failing to trouble Y82.70. Bulls look for a close above Y82.70 to hint at a move

back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. While Y82.70 caps bears focus on

the break of Y80.24 needed to target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y80.21)

remains the key concern for bears with daily studies back at more neutral

levels.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 1: A$1.6032 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5966 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5935 - Low Apr 3 

*SUP 2: A$1.5918 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 & 2+yr highs

is a concern for bulls with O/B studies and the Bollinger band top (A$1.6198)

seeing the pair correct back towards A$1.5940 with a close below the 21-DMA to

shift focus back to A$1.5795-1.5858. Resistance layers accumulating is less than

ideal for bulls with a close above A$1.6117 needed to reconfirm focus on

A$1.6191-1.6263 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 89.714

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.240 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.445 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 90.194 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 90.134 - Hourly support Apr 3

*SUP 2: 89.797 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 4: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the

pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where

the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher

with bears now needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

return initial focus to 88.955.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Initial Focus On $1.2225-1.2240

*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2282 Low Apr 2 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2269 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.2225 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on gains was a concern for bulls last week

and left the pair looking offered with immediate focus back on $1.2225-1.2240

where the bull channel base is noted. Layers of resistance accumulating add

weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above $1.2371 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT bear

channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.49 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: Y106.61 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.37 Hourly support Apr 3 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.28 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Despite the correction lower from last week's highs bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears need a close below Y105.29 to add to

confidence and below Y104.28 to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows

are noted. The 55-DMA is now key resistance. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA

to shift immediate focus to Y108.03-42 and to hint at a move targeting

Y109.50-110.71 where key WMAs and the 200-DMA are located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y132.59 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y132.08 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.29 High Apr 2

*PRICE: Y130.78 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.39 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.37 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.10) key topside. Bulls need a

close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018

highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to

start the new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to

Y128.94-129.39 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1328.3

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1347.0 - High Mar 28 

*RES 1: $1335.8 - Hourly support Apr 3 now resistance

*PRICE: $1332.5 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.3 - High Mar 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1310.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from ahead of the $1318.3 support

with focus having returned to layers of resistance $1361.7-1374.9 where 2018

highs are located. The Bollinger band top ($1349.4) is the key concern for bulls

with potential to limit follow through. Bears now need a close below $1328.3 to

ease bullish pressure and below $1318.3 to pressure 100 & 200-DMAs

$1293.9-1310.4.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Below $62.52 To Target 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $63.86 - High Apr 3

*PRICE: $63.57 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $62.75 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 3: $60.72 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: The rejections ahead of 2018 highs combined with correcting O/B

studies have taken their toll with a sharp sell-off and bearish close Monday

that left the contract pressuring 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears now need a close below

$62.52 to confirm breaks and shift focus back to $59.91-60.72 where the 100-DMA

is noted. Bulls now need a close above $63.86 to gain breathing room and above

$65.42 to target 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]