MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Key DMAs $0.7739-0.7840

*RES 4: $0.7814 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7739 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7714 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7662 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7598 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Recent hesitation ahead of 2018 lows has seen the pair correct

higher with immediate focus now on DMAs $0.7744-0.7840. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 55-DMA ($0.7840) to shift initial focus to $0.7916 and

overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum has corrected to more neutral levels

but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S with bears now needing a close below

the 100-WMA to reconfirm focus on $0.7500-80.

     KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7315 Targets 2018 High

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 1: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7303 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7274 - High Mar 28 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7243 - Hourly support Apr 3

*SUP 4: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to the 200-DMA has taken its toll

with gains this week that sees immediate pressure back on the $0.7315

resistance. Bulls need a close above this level to shift focus back to 2018

highs ($0.7436). Daily studies have room to move before O/B is an issue. Initial

support is noted at the 55-DMA but bears now look for a close below $0.7274 to

ease pressure on $0.7315 and return focus to the 200-DMA.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.0659 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0601 - Low Apr 2 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0565 - Hourly resistance Apr 4

*PRICE: NZ$1.0551 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0523 - 2018 Low Apr 4

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirm immediate bearish focus on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0469 today with a close

below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June lows. Accumulating resistance layers add

weight to the bearish case with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0601 to

ease immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA and initially target the 55-DMA.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y84.16 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.35 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.16 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: Y81.93 - Hourly support Apr 4

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 & 18mth lows has seen the pair work

its way back towards the Y82.70 resistance. Bulls look for a close above Y82.70

to hint at a move back to Y84.16-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Initial

support is now noted at the 21-DMA bear bears look for a close below Y81.93 to

signal a false break of the 21-DMA and to return initial focus to retests of

2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.5795-1.5856

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 1: A$1.5939 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5912 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 2: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5823 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on last week's 2018 & 2+yr highs

sees the pair flirting with the 21-DMA (A$1.5919) and focus now on

A$1.5795-1.5856 where the daily bull channel base is located. Bears now look for

a close below A$1.5795 to target A$1.5598-1.5688. Bulls now look for a close

above A$1.5939 to gain breathing room and above A$1.6117 to reconfirm focus on

A$1.6191-1.6287 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 89.714

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.203 - 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.445 - High Mar 20

*PRICE: 90.129 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 89.790 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 3: 89.534 - Hourly resistance Mar 28a now support

*SUP 4: 89.251 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of 88.960 has seen the

pendulum swing back the other way and focus having returned to 90.445. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm a shift in focus to 91.011-751 where

the 100-DMA is located. Layers of support are again following the index higher

with bears needing a close below 89.714 to ease renewed bullish pressure and

return initial focus to 88.955.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.2433 Hourly support Mar 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 1: $1.2337 55-DMA

*PRICE: $1.2277 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $1.2231 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on gains was a concern for bulls last week

and left the pair looking offered with immediate focus on $1.2231-1.2240 where

the bull channel base is noted. Bulls still need a close above $1.2371 to gain

breathing room and above $1.2477 to retain focus on $1.2555-1.2625 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located. A close below the channel base

initially targets 1.2092-1.2153.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.33 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y107.01 High Mar 28

*PRICE: Y106.75 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.37 Hourly support Apr 3 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.28 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Despite the correction lower from last week's highs bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips. Bears need a close below Y105.29 to add to

confidence and below Y104.28 to confirm focus on Y99.08-101.15 where 2016 lows

are noted. The 55-DMA is now key resistance. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA

to shift immediate focus to Y108.03-42 and to hint at a move targeting

Y109.50-110.71 where key WMAs and the 200-DMA are located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y128.94 Targets Y125.80-127.54

*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 3: Y132.42 55-DMA

*RES 2: Y132.11 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.29 High Apr 2

*PRICE: Y131.08 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.39 200-WMA, 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA (Y133.06) key topside. Bulls need a

close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018

highs with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 to

start the new week with bears needing a close below to return focus to

Y128.94-129.39 where WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1318.4-1328.3 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1332.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1328.3 - High Mar 29 now support 

*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 3: $1310.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Follow through remains lacking on approach to the $1350 level with

gold looking a little offered and pressuring $1328.3. Bears need a close below

$1328.3 to ease bullish pressure and below $1318.3 to pressure 100 & 200-DMAs

$1294.3-1310.9. While $1328.3 supports bulls remain focused on the

$1361.7-1374.9 region where 2018 highs are located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Focus Back On $63.86 Today 

*RES 4: $65.67 - Hourly resistance Mar 27 

*RES 3: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 2: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: $63.86 - High Apr 3

*PRICE: $63.56 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $62.69 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $62.06 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: $60.78 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.91 - Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on 21 ($63.02) & 55 ($62.74) DMAs resulted in a dip below

Wednesday only to be aggressively reversed and pressure back on $63.86. Bulls

need a close above $63.86 to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target 2018

highs. Bears now look for a close below $62.69 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs

and shift focus to $59.91-60.78 where the 100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]