MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7810 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7801 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7724 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7675 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7634 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7586 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of key DMAs $0.7724-0.7828 remain a concern for

bulls. Overall bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Momentum has

corrected to more neutral levels but the Slow Stochastic remains very O/S with

bears now needing a close below $0.7630 to reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86. Below

$0.7500 initially targets $0.7319.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7241

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 

*RES 1: $0.7322 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: $0.7271 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: $0.7181 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7173 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21, 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7315 lacked follow through which is less than ideal

as bulls now look for a close above $0.7322 to confirm focus on 2018 highs. A

close above $0.7354 is needed to add support to the case. Bulls take comfort in

support emerging around the 21-DMA and bears now need a close below $0.7241 to

confirm a break and shift initial focus back to $0.7130-81 where key DMA and

WMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0641 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: NZ$1.0553 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0522 - 2018 Low Apr 5

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirmed immediate bearish focus on the

LT rising daily TL off 2015 lows coming in around NZ$1.0470 today with a close

below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June lows. Accumulating resistance layers add

weight to the bearish case with bulls needing a close above NZ$1.0608 to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and initially target the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0740).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Still Need Close Above Y82.70

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.93 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.12 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 2: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 & 18mth lows has seen the pair work

its way back towards the Y82.70 resistance. Bulls look for a close above Y82.70

to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm. Initial

support is now noted at Friday's low with bears needing a close below to confirm

a break back below the 2-DMA and return initial focus to retests of 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.6117 To Initially Target A$1.6191-1.6311

*RES 4: A$1.6191 - 2018 High Mar 28

*RES 3: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 1: A$1.6021 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: A$1.5983 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5893 - Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5847 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 2+yr highs saw the

pair flirting with the 21-DMA (A$1.5943) last week as focus returned to

A$1.5762-1.5856 where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are located. Bulls take

comfort in Friday's bounce but now need a close above A$1.6117 to reconfirm

focus on A$1.6191-1.6311 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Another Break Lacks Follow Through

*RES 4: 91.095 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 1: 90.260 - Hourly support Apr 5 now resistance

*PRICE: 90.066 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 89.927 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.775 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 89.714 - Hourly support Mar 28

*SUP 4: 89.633 - High Mar 27 now support

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges continue to lack follow

through with the topside break failure seeing pressure back on the 89.534-927

region where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below

89.633 to confirm breaks of DMAs and return focus to tests of 2018 lows. Bulls

maintain the advantage while 89.633 supports and currently focus on 97.011-751

where the 100-DMA is noted.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2371 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1.2371 Low Mar 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2344 High Apr 2

*RES 2: $1.2337 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2290 Hourly resistance Apr 4, High Apr 6

*PRICE: $1.2277 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 2: $1.2216 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Dips below the bull channel base last week lacked follow through

with bears now looking for a close below $1.2216 to confirm initial focus on

$1.2092-1.2156 where the 100-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern

for bears ($1.2216) and limits follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.2371

to gain breathing room and above $1.2477 to focus on $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT

bear channel top off 2008 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.69 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: Y109.51 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y106.95 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.69 Low Apr 5 

*SUP 2: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 4: Y104.35 LT Rising TL off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA (Y107.19)

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. Bears look for a close below

Y106.69 to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is key

today. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03.42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.63 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

Daily studies approaching O/B is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Y133.05 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y132.27 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.14 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.25 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 3: Y129.36 200-WMA, 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: The pair currently remains supported around 55 & 200-WMAs and

capped ahead of the 200-DMA with the 100-DMA key topside. Bulls need a close

above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and hint at a move back to 2018 highs

with a close above Y134.16 to confirm. Pressure returned to Y129.97 last week

with bears still needing a close below to return focus to Y128.94-129.36 where

WMAs and 2018 lows are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1356.7 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1356.7 - High Mar 27 

*RES 3: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 

*RES 2: $1341.3 - Hourly support Apr 4 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1335.3 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: $1329.1 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 2: $1311.9 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1295.1 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with bears

needing a close below to add to confidence and below the 100-DMA to confirm

focus on tests of the 200-DMA. Layers of resistance remain in place with bulls

now needing a close above Friday's high to gain breathing room and above $1356.7

to confirm initial focus on $1366.7-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Immediate Focus On 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $65.42 - High Apr 2 

*RES 3: $64.86 - Hourly support Apr 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: $64.12 - High Apr 4 

*RES 1: $62.69 - Alternating Hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: $62.06 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $60.88 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support 

*SUP 4: $58.45 - Daily Bull channel base off 2017 Low

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from $66.55 continued last week with a bearish close

Friday seeing immediate focus back on the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below

the 100-DMA to confirm focus on layers of support $57.60-59.91 where the bull

channel base off 2017 lows is noted. The $64.12 resistance is key this week with

bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room and above $65.42 to target

2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]