MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7842 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7813 - 200-DMA, 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22

*RES 1: $0.7787 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7755 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7709 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 3: $0.7635 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $0.7630 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as the pair gains traction above the 21-DMA with

focus on $0.7781-0.7842 where key WMA and DMAs and the falling TL off 2018 highs

are found. Bulls need a close above $0.7842 to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to $0.7916 and overall focus back to $0.8135-62. Bears need a

close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7630 to confirm a

break of the 100-WMA and reconfirm focus on $0.7500-86.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7324

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7385 - High Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7360 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - Low Apr 11

*SUP 2: $0.7324 - High Apr 6 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7286 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7241 has resulted in focus having returned to

2018 highs. Overall bulls look for a close above $0.7458 to confirm focus on

$0.7558 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($0.7364) is the key concern for bulls as

it limits follow through. Bears now need a close below $0.7324 to ease bullish

pressure and below $0.7241 to confirm focus back on $0.7130-93 where DMA and

WMAs are found.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0669 To Target 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0610 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6

*PRICE: NZ$1.0541 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0501 - 2018 Low Apr 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0468 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 9mth lows reconfirm immediate bearish focus on the LT

rising daily TL off 2015 lows with a close below then targeting NZ$1.0367 June

lows. Follow through was lacking Monday courtesy of the Bollinger base

(NZ$1.0487). In saying that, bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease

immediate bearish pressure and above NZ$1.0669 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA

and initially target the 55-DMA (NZ$1.0718).

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y82.58

*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 3: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.75 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.84 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.58 - Highs Apr 6 & 9 now support

*SUP 2: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on Y82.70 took its toll with an aggressive break higher

and bullish close Tuesday. Bulls now look for a close above the 55-DMA to add

support the case for a move back to Y84.51-85.89 where key DMA and WMAs are

noted. Initial support is now found at Y82.58 with bears needing a close below

to ease bullish pressure and below Y81.87 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 3: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9

*RES 2: A$1.6017 - High Apr 10

*RES 1: A$1.5994 - High Apr 11

*PRICE: A$1.5939 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5888 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: A$1.5882 - Daily Bull channel base off Jan 29 low 

*SUP 3: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 & 2+yr highs sees pressure back

on the A$1.5781-1.5882 support region where the 55-DMA and daily bull channel

base off Jan 29 lows are noted. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift

focus to A$1.5495-1.5630 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close

above A$1.5987 to gain breathing room and above A$1.6117 to reconfirm focus on

A$1.6191-1.6346 where 2018 highs and bull channel top are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.004 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.570 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 89.194 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.253 - 2018 Low Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Follow through on breaks of recent ranges remains lacking with the

topside break failure now seeing closes below the 55-DMA (89.767) and immediate

focus back on the 88.942 support. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg

lower. Bulls now look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 91.004-751 where the 100-DMA (91.004) is

found.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above $1.2476

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 2: $1.2431 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*PRICE: $1.2365 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2325 Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's dips below the bull channel base sees

closes above the 55-DMA ($1.2338) with bulls now looking for a close above

$1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2611 where the LT bear channel

top off 2018 highs is located. Support layers accumulating is a concern for

bears. Initial support is noted at $1.2325 but bears need a close below $1.2290

to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.49 To Shift Focus Higher

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.49 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y106.79 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 2: Y106.30 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y104.55 2018 Low Mar 26

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 55-DMA Thursday

with the sell-off providing bears breathing room. A close below the 21-DMA is

now needed to shift initial focus back to Y105.29. The Y107.49 resistance is

key. Bulls need a close above to reconfirm focus on Y108.03-42 with a close

above this region to target Y109.29-110.54 where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

The Bollinger top (Y107.63) is the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.61 High Apr 10

*PRICE: Y132.08 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.99 High Apr 9 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.61 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the close above 55 &

200-DMAs with immediate focus on the 21-WMA and 100-DMA. Bulls still need a

close above these MAs to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018

highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.45) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look

for a close below Y131.99 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to shift

initial focus back to Y128.94-129.96.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus On 2016 & 2014 Highs

*RES 4: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 3 2014 

*RES 3: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 2: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 1: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25

*PRICE: $1352.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1348.4 - High Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: $1342.6 - High Apr 10 now support 

*SUP 3: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9

*COMMENTARY: The $1318.3 support confirmed significance last week with the

recovery falling just short of the 2018 high. Focus now remains on the

$1366.0-1391.8 region where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located. The Bollinger

top ($1354.8) is the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow through.

Bears now look for a close below $1342.6 to ease bullish pressure and return

focus to $1313.7-1330.9 where key DMAs are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bulls Dominate While $63.94 Supports 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.66 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 1: $67.45 - 2018 High Apr 11

*PRICE: $66.82 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $66.44 - Hourly resistance Apr 11 now support 

*SUP 2: $65.71 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 3: $65.15 - Low Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $64.37 - Hourly support Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: The bounce to start the new week has resulted in aggressive rallies

resulting in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Wednesday and bulls now targeting

$69.54-73.25. Daily studies are perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher but the

Bollinger band top ($67.02) is a concern. Bears now look for a close below

$65.15 to gain breathing room and below $63.94 to shift focus back to $61.12-81

where the 100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]