MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7842

*RES 4: $0.7916 - High Mar 14

*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 2: $0.7814 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7801 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7770 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 

*SUP 4: $0.7641 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $0.7842 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a

close above to confirm breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and the falling daily TL

($0.7768). $0.7735 provided the base for Friday's rally with bears needing a

close below to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to return initial focus

to 2018 lows and the 100-WMA. Overall bears need a close below the weekly bull

channel base ($0.7594) off 2016 lows to initially target $0.7500.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $0.7324

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7395 - High Apr 13

*PRICE: $0.7355 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - Low Apr 11

*SUP 2: $0.7324 - High Apr 6 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7287 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from $0.7241 has resulted in focus having returned to

2018 highs. Overall bulls look for a close above $0.7458 to confirm focus on

$0.7558 2017 highs. The Bollinger top ($0.7389) is the key concern for bulls as

it limits follow through. Bears need a close below $0.7324 to ease bullish

pressure and below $0.7241 to confirm focus back on $0.7130-96 where DMA and

WMAs are found.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: LT Rising TL Confirming Significance

*RES 4: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23

*RES 3: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29

*RES 2: NZ$1.0608 - High Apr 6

*RES 1: NZ$1.0596 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0561 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0482 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0473 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0394 - Monthly Low July 7 2017

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from recent 2018 & 9mth lows confirmed the significance

of the LT rising daily TL off 2015 lows. Bears need a close below the LT TL to

target NZ$1.0367 June lows. Follow through remains lacking courtesy of the

Bollinger base. Bulls now look for a close above NZ$1.0608 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and to shift initial focus to A$1.0669. Correcting O/S studies are

also noted as a concern for bears.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 3: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y84.08 - High Apr 13 

*RES 1: Y83.48 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y83.33 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.98 - Hourly resistance Apr 13 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.58 - Highs Apr 6 & 9 now support

*SUP 3: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6

*SUP 4: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection above the 55-DMA (Y83.57) & 100-WMA

(Y83.59) is less than ideal for bulls with daily studies at moderately O/B

levels. Bulls now need a close above Y84.06 to shift initial focus to

Y84.89-85.59 where the 100-DMA (Y85.14) is found. The Y82.58 support is key

today with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below Y81.87

to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Aggressive Rejection Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2

*RES 3: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9

*RES 2: A$1.5976 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5904 - Low Apr 11 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5868 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5856 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: A$1.5811 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5771 - Low Apr 13 

*SUP 4: A$1.5634 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 2018 highs may be in trouble given the lack of

follow through and aggressive rejection below the 55-DMA Friday. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.5771 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and to shift

focus back to A$1.5598-1.5634 where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close

above A$1.5904 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return initial

focus to A$1.6060-1.6117. Daily studies at O/S levels is a concern for bears.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970

*RES 4: 90.905 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.597 - High Apr 6 

*RES 2: 90.273 - High Apr 9 

*RES 1: 89.970 - High Apr 10

*PRICE: 89.770 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 89.660 - Hourly support Apr 12

*SUP 2: 89.373 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low

*SUP 3: 89.189 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the daily bull

channel base off 2018 lows following the most recent topside failure. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above

90.597 to shift immediate focus to 90.905-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found. The

88.942 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm traction

below the channel base and to initially target 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2290 & $1.2253 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $1.2477 High Mar 27

*RES 3: $1.2425 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: $1.2395 High Apr 11

*RES 1: $1.2353 Hourly support Apr 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2329 @ 2100GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 

*SUP 3: $1.2209 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 4: $1.2183 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bear channel top sees the pair

flirting with the 55-DMA ($1.2335) and pressuring initial support. Bears

continue to look for a close below $1.2290 to return focus to $1.2153-1.2209

where the 100-DMA is located. Bulls need a close above $1.2353 to gain breathing

room and above $1.2477 to confirm a return in focus to $1.2555-1.2606 where the

LT bear channel top off 2018 highs is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y108.42 To Target Y109.26-110.47

*RES 4: Y109.49 100-WMA 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.77 High Apr 5

*PRICE: Y107.44 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.00 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: Y106.44 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging at Y106.57 last week but

still need a close above the Y108.03-42 region to target Y109.29-110.54 where

key DMA and WMAs are situated. Follow through was lacking Friday courtesy of the

Bollinger band top (Y107.97) and this remains the key concern for bulls. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to

shift initial focus back to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 100-DMA To Focus On 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8

*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9

*RES 2: Y133.06 100-DMA

*RES 1: Y132.84 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Y132.42 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.82 Hourly support Apr 4 

*SUP 3: Y129.97 High Mar 23 now support 

*SUP 4: Y129.61 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The break of Y131.99 lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (Y131.14) and shift initial focus to Y128.94-129.96. Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift

overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top (Y132.84) and O/B studies

are now recognized as key concerns for bulls.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1326.9 Support Now Key

*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: $1353.2 - High Apr 12

*PRICE: $1345.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: $1326.9 - Low Apr 9 

*SUP 3: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1314.8 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of 2018 highs resulted in a sharp correction lower

with focus back on $1326.9-1330.9. Bears need a close below $1326.9 to confirm

initial focus on $1314.8-1318.3 where the 100-DMA is noted. Below the 100-DMA is

needed to initially target 2018 lows and then the 200-DMA ($1297.9). Bulls now

need a close above $1353.2 to return focus to $1366.0-1391.8 where 2018, 2016 &

2014 highs are located.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) $65.68-66.59 Support Now Key 

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 

*RES 2: $69.18 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $67.63 - 2018 High Apr 13

*PRICE: $67.33 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $66.59 - Low Apr 13 

*SUP 2: $65.94 - Low Apr 12 

*SUP 3: $65.68 - Hourly support Apr 11 

*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs defined last week with bulls now focused on

$69.11-73.25 where a daily bull channel top is noted. Daily studies are

perfectly placed for a fresh leg higher but the Bollinger band top ($67.55)

remains a concern. Bears now look for a close below $66.59 to gain breathing

room and below $65.68 to shift initial focus back to $64.10-22 where the 21-DMA

($64.22) is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]