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USDCAD TECHS

Watching The 50-Day EMA

AUDUSD TECHS

Bearish Focus

MONTH-END EXTENSIONS

Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US

US TSYS

Late Session Selling

19 April 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7718-35 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $0.7916 - High Mar 14
*RES 3: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 2: $0.7816 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7797 - High Apr 18
*PRICE: $0.7782 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7735 - Low Apr 12 
*SUP 2: $0.7718 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 3: $0.7691 - Hourly support Apr 10 
*SUP 4: $0.7641 - 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The $0.7842 resistance remains key this week with bulls needing a
close above to confirm breaks of key DMAs. The $0.7735 level provided the base
for Friday's rally with bears needing a close below this level to gain breathing
room and below the 21-DMA to return initial focus to 2018 lows and the 100-WMA
($0.7641). Overall bears need a close below the weekly bull channel base
($0.7595) off 2016 lows to initially target $0.7500 and then $0.7319.
     KIWI TECHS: Supported Ahead of 55-DMA For Now
*RES 4: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 
*RES 3: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 
*RES 2: $0.7395 - High Apr 13 
*RES 1: $0.7372 - High Apr 17
*PRICE: $0.7321 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7285 - 55-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7241 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 3: $0.7212 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7184 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: With daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels hesitation
ahead of last week's high is less than ideal for bulls. Overall bulls look for a
close above $0.7458 to confirm focus on $0.7558 2017 highs. Bears now look for a
close below the 55-DMA to initially pressure $0.7241 and below this level to
confirm focus back on $0.7130-0.7212 where key DMA and WMAs are found.
     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To NZ$1.0669-90
*RES 4: NZ$1.0692 - Bollinger band top
*RES 3: NZ$1.0690 - High Mar 23
*RES 2: NZ$1.0686 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0669 - High Mar 29
*PRICE: NZ$1.0625 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0473 - LT rising daily TL off 2015 Low
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from recent 2018 & 9mth lows confirmed the significance
of the LT rising daily TL off 2015 lows with the close above NZ$1.0608
confirming initial focus now on NZ$1.0669-90 where the 55-DMA is located. Daily
studies are well placed for gains. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0601 to
ease bullish pressure and below NZ$1.0549 to see the LT rising TL off 2015 lows
pressured once more.
     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Pressuring Key Y83.65-84.06 Resistance Region
*RES 4: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 
*RES 3: Y84.08 - Bollinger band top 
*RES 2: Y84.06 - High Apr 13 
*RES 1: Y83.65 - High Apr 16
*PRICE: Y83.46 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y82.98 - Hourly resistance Apr 13 now support
*SUP 2: Y82.58 - Highs Apr 6 & 9 now support
*SUP 3: Y81.87 - Low Apr 6
*SUP 4: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection above the 55-DMA (Y83.23) & 100-WMA
(Y83.63) Friday was less than ideal for bulls with daily studies O/B. Bulls now
need a close above Y84.06 to shift initial focus to Y84.89-85.59 where the
100-DMA (Y85.08) is found. The Y82.58 support is key this week with bears
needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below Y81.87 to confirm a
break of the 21-DMA (Y82.26) and shift focus back to 2018 lows.
     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Target A$1.6060-1.6117
*RES 4: A$1.6117 - High Mar 29
*RES 3: A$1.6084 - High Apr 2
*RES 2: A$1.6060 - High Apr 9
*RES 1: A$1.5975 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: A$1.5901 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5844 - Low Apr 16 
*SUP 2: A$1.5837 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: A$1.5771 - Low Apr 13 
*SUP 4: A$1.5642 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA last week
has seen the pair work its way back towards the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above
the 21-DMA to return initial focus to A$1.6060-1.6117 and overall focus to 2018
highs. Daily studies correcting from O/S levels remains a concern for bears.
Bears continue to look for a close below A$1.5771 to confirm traction below the
55-DMA and to shift focus back to A$1.5598-1.5642 where the 100-DMA is found.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 89.970
*RES 4: 90.597 - High Apr 6 
*RES 3: 90.273 - High Apr 9 
*RES 2: 89.970 - High Apr 10 
*RES 1: 89.805 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 89.612 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 89.448 - Low Apr 18
*SUP 2: 89.229 - Low Apr 17
*SUP 3: 89.124 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 4: 88.942 - Monthly Low Mar 27
*COMMENTARY: The 89.970 resistance confirmed significance with the index capped
ahead to start the new week. Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips
below the bull channel base with bears needing a close below 88.942 to confirm
traction below the channel base and initially target 2018 lows. Bulls continue
to look for a close above 89.970 to gain breathing room and above 90.597 to
shift immediate focus to 90.831-91.011 where the 100-DMA is found.
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above $1.2477 To Target LT Bear Channel Top
*RES 4: $1.2603 LT Bear channel top off 2008 high
*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2477 High Mar 27
*RES 1: $1.2415 Daily Bear channel top
*PRICE: $1.2374 @ 2100GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2332 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1.2290 High Apr 6 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2257 Hourly support Apr 6 
*SUP 4: $1.2209 Low Apr 6
*COMMENTARY: The daily bear channel top off 2018 highs continues to confirm
significance having capped Tuesday. Bulls continue to look for a close above
$1.2477 to confirm focus on $1.2555-1.2603 where 2018 highs & the LT bear
channel top off 2008 highs are located. Bulls take comfort in the 55-DMA
supporting with a close below $1.2290 needed to return initial focus to
$1.2153-1.2209 where the 100-DMA ($1.2197) is situated.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y108.42 To Target Key WMAs & DMAs
*RES 4: Y109.08 21-WMA 
*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 
*RES 1: Y107.77 High Apr 5
*PRICE: Y107.22 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: Y106.57 Low Apr 9 
*SUP 3: Y106.56 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y105.29 Hourly resistance Mar 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of the Y108.03-42 resistance region
bears take additional comfort in pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y106.89).
Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back
to Y105.29 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows and the LT rising TL (Y104.43)
off 2016 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y108.42 to shift focus to
Y109.08-110.49 where key DMA and WMAs are located.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: Y134.79 High Feb 8
*RES 3: Y134.16 High Feb 9
*RES 2: Y133.34 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y133.05 100-DMA
*PRICE: Y132.69 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.09 Low Apr 17 
*SUP 2: Y131.83 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y131.78 Low Apr 12 
*SUP 4: Y131.42 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 55-DMA provides bulls comfort with
bears needing a close below Y131.78 to ease bullish pressure and below Y130.82
to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus to Y128.94-129.97.
Topside hesitation continues with bulls looking for a close above the 100-DMA to
end bearish hopes and shift overall focus back to 2018 highs. The Bollinger top
and O/B studies looking to correct remain key concerns for bulls.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bollinger Band Top Capping
*RES 4: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 
*RES 3: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 
*RES 2: $1366.0 - 2018 High Jan 25 
*RES 1: $1358.3 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1348.9 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $1337.0 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $1331.6 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: $1330.9 - Low Apr 10 
*SUP 4: $1327.7 - Daily Bull channel base off Dec low
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards 21 &
55-DMAs although the topside hesitation ahead of the Bollinger top is a concern.
Bulls now focus on $1366.0-1391.8 where 2018, 2016 & 2014 highs are located.
Layers of support remain $1316.4-1337.1. Bears look for a close below the bull
channel base to hint at a shift lower in focus with below the 100-DMA to shift
immediate focus back to $1299.8-1302.5 where Mar lows and the 200-DMA are noted.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Immediate Focus On $69.37-54
*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 
*RES 3: $69.54 - High Dec 1 2014 (Cont) 
*RES 2: $69.37 - Daily Bull channel top 
*RES 1: $68.90 - 2018 High Apr 18
*PRICE: $68.83 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: $67.57 - Hourly support Apr 18 
*SUP 2: $66.54 - Low Apr 18 
*SUP 3: $65.59 - Low Apr 17 
*SUP 4: $65.09 - Low Apr 11
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have reconfirmed control with an aggressive rally, fresh 2018
& 3+yr highs and bullish close that sees immediate focus on $69.37-54 and
overall focus on $73.25. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top ($68.31) are
noted as concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below $67.57 to gain
breathing room and hint at a correction back to $64.99-65.59 where the 21-DMA
($64.99) is found.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]