MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

11 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7749 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: $0.7722 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7627 - High June 8

*PRICE: $0.7590 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7565 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7552 - Low June 4 

*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off last following the topside failure around the 200-WMA

($0.7676) sees the pair flirting with the 21-DMA with bears needing a close

below $0.7552 to shift focus to $0.7410-74 where 2018 lows are noted. Initial

resistance is noted at $0.7627. Bulls now need a close above to gain breathing

room and above $0.7682 to pressure $0.7722-50 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 &

55-WMAs are noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     KIWI TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $0.7121 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7091 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7059 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7019 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6993 - Hourly resistance June 4 now support

*SUP 2: $0.6959 - High May 28 now support

*SUP 3: $0.6955 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking with bulls needing a close

above $0.7059 to confirm initial focus on $0.7091-0.7200 where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs and 21, 55, 100 & 200-WMAs are situated. Initial support is noted at

$0.6993 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Overall below

the 21-DMA is needed to return focus to $0.6849-80 where 2018 lows are situated.

The Bollinger top ($0.7066) is the key concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0697 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0879 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*RES 1: NZ$1.0827 - Low June 5 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0803 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0774 - Low June 1

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0762 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0749 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0723 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out NZ$1.0906 reconfirmed its significance with a

sell-off Friday reconfirming a return in focus to NZ$1.0697-1.0774 where 55 &

100-DMAs and the 100-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0697 to

confirm breaks and return overall focus to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close

above NZ$1.0584 to gain breathing room and return focus to the NZ$1.0906-62

resistance region.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 3: Y84.27 - Hourly resistance June 7a 

*RES 2: Y83.88 - Hourly resistance June 7 

*RES 1: Y83.34 - Low June 5 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.65 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: Y81.99 - Low May 31

*SUP 3: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of the Y84.51 resistance was quickly reversed

Thursday with a sell-off that leaves the pair looking offered and focus back on

the 55-DMA. The close below Y83.93 provides bears breathing room with a close

below the 55-DMA needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

Y80.51-81.04 although Y81.99 may slow the move. Bulls now need a close above

Y84.18 to gain breathing room and return focus to Y84.51-89.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above A$1.5558

*RES 4: A$1.5748 - 21-WMA

*RES 3: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*RES 1: A$1.5558 - High June 8

*PRICE: A$1.5510 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5464 - Low June 8 

*SUP 2: A$1.5424 - High June 1 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5391 - High June 6 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5348 - Low June 7

*COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 55-WMA (A$1.5345) saw bears fail to gain

traction below with the bounce Thursday buying bulls breathing room. Failure to

close above A$1.5529 Friday is less than ideal and sees bears needing a close

below Friday's low (A$1.5464) to confirm a false break of the 21-DMA (A$1.5511)

and hint at a move back to A$1.5256-74 with below A$1.5391 to confirm. Bulls now

need a close above A$1.5558 to confirm initial focus on A$1.5618-51.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 93.933

*RES 4: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 3: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 2: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 1: 93.933 - Hourly resistance June 5

*PRICE: 93.537 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.497 - Hourly resistance June 8 now support

*SUP 2: 93.213 - Low June 7

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 14

*COMMENTARY: The closes below the 21-DMA adds weight to the bearish case for a

move back to 91.976-223 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. The break of 93.291

has so far lacked follow through which is less than ideal for bears but bulls

now need a close above 93.933 to ease renewed bearish pressure and above 94.450

to regain the upper hand and initially focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Above 55-WMA To Target $1.2009-53

*RES 4: $1.2009 200-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1891 55-WMA

*RES 2: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 1: $1.1793 Hourly support June 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1774 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1724 Low June 8 

*SUP 2: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1616 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the $1.1854-91 resistance last week is less

than ideal for bulls who need a close above the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus

back to $1.2009-53 where the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. The dip below the

21-DMA ($1.1737) Friday is a concern for bulls but a close below $1.1708 remains

needed to return initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located.

Daily studies now approaching O/B is a concern for bulls.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y109.01 To Pressure 100-DMA

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y110.26 High June 6 

*RES 1: Y109.81 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.31 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 2: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.64 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.06 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The rally from dips back to the 100-DMA in May have seen the pair

correct higher only to fail at the 200-DMA hurdle. The sell-off last week

resulted in an easing of bullish pressure with bears now looking for a close

below Y109.01 to shift focus back to Y107.85-108.06 although the 55-DMA may

support along the way. Bulls look for a close above Y110.72 to confirm traction

above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y127.10 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y130.53 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y130.27 High June 7

*RES 2: Y129.78 Hourly support June 7 now resistance

*RES 1: Y129.26 Low June 7 now resistance

*PRICE: Y128.70 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.09 Low June 8 

*SUP 2: Y127.56 Low June 4 

*SUP 3: Y127.10 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows is in trouble with the failure ahead of

the 55-DMA resulting in a sell-off and bearish close Friday. The Y127.10 support

is key this week with bears needing a close below Y127.10 to shift focus back to

2018 lows. O/B Daily studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a

close above Y129.26 to gain breathing room and return pressure to Y130.27-132.59

where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1310.5 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1317.3 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1307.2 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7

*PRICE: $1298.0 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 2: $1282.9 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.4 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Pops above the 21-DMA ($1297.1) lack follow through with the

200-DMA just above. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to confirm breaks of 21 &

200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1317.3-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs & the

21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close below the 100-WMA to target

$1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30

*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 

*RES 2: $67.40 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.35 - Low May 30 now resistance

*PRICE: $65.74 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.15 - Low June 8 

*SUP 2: $64.82 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $63.87 - High Apr 5 

*SUP 4: $61.73 - Monthly Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA with focus having returned to $66.35-68.97 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA ($67.40) to gain breathing room and above

the 21-DMA ($68.97) to shift focus higher. While the 55-DMA caps bears retain

the advantage and need a close below $63.87 to shift initial focus to $61.73 and

overall focus to $56.93-59.70 where the 200-DMA and Feb lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]