MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: $0.7749 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: $0.7708 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 1: $0.7627 - High June 8

*PRICE: $0.7574 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7548 - Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: $0.7523 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The dip back towards the bull channel base off 2018 lows lacked

follow through. Bears now need a close below $0.7513 to return focus to tests of

2018 lows. Correcting modestly O/B studies are less than ideal for bears. In

saying that, bulls still need a close above $0.7627 to gain breathing room and

above $0.7682 to pressure $0.7708-49 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are

noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     KIWI TECHS: Below $0.6960 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7118 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7079 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7059 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7019 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7000 - Hourly support June 13

*SUP 2: $0.6973 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.6960 - High May 28 now support

*SUP 4: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through remains lacking with bulls needing a close

above $0.7059 to confirm initial focus on $0.7079-0.7200 where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs & 21, 55, 100 & 200-WMAs are noted. Initial support is noted at $0.7000

with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Overall below $0.6960

is needed to return focus to $0.6849-80 where 2018 lows are situated. The

Bollinger top ($0.7075) and correcting O/B studies are key concerns for bulls.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0697 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 3: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0875 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*PRICE: NZ$1.0786 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0762 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0746 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0734 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out NZ$1.0906 reconfirmed its significance with a

sell-off Friday reconfirming a return in focus to NZ$1.0697-1.0762 where 55 &

100-DMAs and the 100-WMA are noted. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0697 to

confirm breaks and return overall focus to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close

above NZ$1.0854 to gain breathing room and return focus to the NZ$1.0906-62

resistance region.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.27 - Hourly resistance June 7a 

*RES 1: Y83.98 - High June 13

*PRICE: Y83.62 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.34 - Alternating support/resistance

*SUP 2: Y82.77 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: Y81.99 - Low May 31

*SUP 4: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance having stalled the correction

lower from last week's high and provided the base for a bounce to start the new

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y84.27 to gain breathing room and

return focus to Y84.53-85.59. Bears continue to look for a close below the

55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to Y80.51-81.04 although Y81.99

may slow the move.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.5618-51

*RES 4: A$1.5756 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5670 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5651 - Low May 19 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5618 - High May 23

*PRICE: A$1.5561 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5510 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5470 - Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 3: A$1.5439 - Low June 12 

*SUP 4: A$1.5391 - High June 6 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to close below the 55-WMA

(A$1.5345) last week with the close above A$1.5558 and bear channel top

confirming initial focus on A$1.5618-51 and hinting at a move to A$1.5756-70

where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The 200-DMA is now initial support but bears look

for a close below A$1.5470 to ease renewed bullish pressure and below A$1.5391

to shift initial focus to A$1.5256-74.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 2: 94.028 - High June 13 

*RES 1: 93.714 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 93.582 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.366 - Low June 11

*SUP 2: 93.213 - Low June 7

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 14

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of 93.933 leaves

the index looking a little offered with focus back on the 93.213 support. Bears

now look for a close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of

92.028-223 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located. Bulls now need a close above 94.028

to gain breathing room and above 94.450 to initially focus on 2018 highs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1708 & 55-WMA Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.1985 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1891 55-WMA

*RES 2: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 1: $1.1820 High June 11

*PRICE: $1.1790 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Low June 13 

*SUP 2: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 3: $1.1616 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to trade sideways in a $1.1723-1.1820 range with

daily studies at modestly O/B the key concern for bulls. The 21-DMA is noted at

$1.1725 with bears needing a close below $1.1708 to confirm a break and return

initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located. The $1.1820-91

resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to shift

initial focus to $1.1985-1.2053 where the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.84

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.31 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.10 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.88 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite closes above the 200-DMA (Y110.21), the lack of follow

through on the break of Y110.72 has left the pair looking a little heavy.

Initial support remains at Y110.10 with bears needing a close below Y109.84 to

ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to pressure Y107.85-108.09 where the

100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above Y110.84 to confirm traction above

the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Returns To 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.28 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.18 21-WMA

*RES 2: Y130.87 Daily bear channel top

*RES 1: Y130.49 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.08 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.48 Low June 12 

*SUP 2: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y128.49 Hourly support June 11 

*SUP 4: Y128.09 Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls as the pair

continues to hesitate ahead of the 55-DMA and layers of resistance

Y130.49-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated.

Bears need a close below Y129.26 to gain breathing room and below Y127.10 to

shift focus back to 2018 lows. Overall bulls need a close above Y132.59 to shift

initial focus back to Y134.12-136.00 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Narrowing Bollinger Bands Hint At Breakout

*RES 4: $1314.6 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.8 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7

*PRICE: $1299.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.1 - Low June 13 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.0 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Lacklustre trading continues with gold remaining capped ahead of

the 200-DMA. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase the risk of a break out in

coming days. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to ease bearish pressure and shift

immediate focus to $1314.6-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Bears need a

close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm a bearish bias and target $1233.4-1234.3

where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) 55-DMA Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $68.67 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $68.17 - Hourly resistance May 31 

*RES 2: $67.49 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $67.34 - High June 1

*PRICE: $66.62 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $66.34 - Hourly resistance June 13 now support 

*SUP 2: $65.52 - Low June 12 

*SUP 3: $64.93 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $63.87 - High Apr 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA with focus having returned to $67.49-68.67 where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted.

Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above $68.67 to

shift focus higher. Initial support is noted at $66.34 today with bears needing

a close below to gain breathing room. Below $63.87 is needed to shift initial

focus to $61.73.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]