MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

18 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7527

*RES 4: $0.7627 - High June 8

*RES 3: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13

*RES 2: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7481 - High June 15

*PRICE: $0.7461 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7435 - Low June 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of $0.7627 left the pair looking heavy last

week and provided the catalyst for a sharp sell-off that sees bears focused on

2018 lows once more and then the $0.7368 June 2017 low. Layers of resistance

have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close above $0.7480 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7627 to shift initial focus back to layers of

resistance $0.7682-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Focused On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7059 - High May 4 

*RES 3: $0.7021 - Hourly resistance June 14a 

*RES 2: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 1: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6939 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6923 - Low June 15

*SUP 2: $0.6880 - Low May 30

*SUP 3: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through the past week or so and

hesitation ahead of $0.7059 combined with daily studies at O/B levels have

resulted in a sharp sell-off with immediate pressure now back on 2018 lows.

Fresh 2018 lows are now required to confirm focus on $0.6779 2017 lows. Bulls

now need a close above $0.6969 to gain breathing room and above $0.6999 to

return focus to layers of resistance $0.7059-0.7198.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0697 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.0854 - High June 8

*RES 3: NZ$1.0846 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0759 - High June 15

*PRICE: NZ$1.0703 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0697 - High May 9 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: Bears have not been disappointed with the failure to take out

NZ$1.0906 reconfirming a return in focus to NZ$1.0697 and confirming the

significance of this support. Bears now need a close below NZ$1.0697 to confirm

traction below 55 & 100-DMAs and return overall focus to 2018 lows. Bulls now

look for a close above NZ$1.0759 to gain breathing room and above NZ$1.0793 to

shift focus back to NZ$1.0846-1.0906.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y82.97

*RES 4: Y83.98 - High June 13 

*RES 3: Y83.63 - High June 14 

*RES 2: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 1: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.33 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.99 - Low May 31

*SUP 2: Y81.04 - Low May 30

*SUP 3: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*SUP 4: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.79) resulted in a close below

Thursday, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to Y80.51-81.04 although

Y81.99 may slow the move. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case.

Bulls now need a close above Y82.97 to gain breathing room and above Y83.63 to

shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.98-84.53.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5771 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: A$1.5761 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: A$1.5743 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: A$1.5692 - High June 14

*RES 1: A$1.5618 - Hourly support June 14a now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5560 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5477 - Hourly support June 15 

*SUP 2: A$1.5424 - Low June 14 

*SUP 3: A$1.5391 - High June 6 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5348 - Low June 7

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading defined the end of last week with the pair

recovering ground lost Thursday to end the week. The A$1.5771 resistance remains

key. Bulls need a close above this level to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs,

shifting immediate focus to A$1.5967 and overall focus to tests of 2018 highs.

While A$1.5571 caps bears remains focus on tests of 2018 lows with a close below

A$1.5391 to add weight to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-WMA

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 95.131 - 2018 High June 15 

*RES 1: 94.979 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 94.789 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.587 - Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with an aggressive rally Thursday

that sees immediate pressure on 94.980-95.167 where the 200-WMA and 2018 highs

are located. Bulls look for a close above 95.167 to initially target 96.512

weekly highs from July 2017. Bears continue to look for a close below 94.587 to

gain breathing room and below 94.028 to shift focus back to 92.841-93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1697 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1627 High June 15

*PRICE: $1.1599 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1541 Low June 15 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-WMA and the $$1.1854-94 resistance

region combined with O/B studies looking to correct took its toll with a sharp

sell-off that sees immediate focus on 2018 lows. Bears continue to look for a

close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs, shifting

immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above $1.1723 to

shift focus back to $1.1854-94.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.84

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.65 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.24 Hourly support June 14, 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.05 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 200-DMA but now need a close

above Y110.90 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return immediate focus

to Y111.39-98. Initial support is noted at Y110.24 with bears still needing a

close below Y109.84 to ease bullish pressure and below the Y109.01 now to

pressure Y107.85-108.13 where the 100-DMA is found. Daily studies at O/B levels

is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.10 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.55 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y128.07 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.56 Low June 4 

*SUP 2: Y127.10 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA (Y130.37) and

Y130.37-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated

combined with O/B studies looking to correct provided the impetus for a sharp

sell-off that shifted overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bears now need a close

below Y127.10 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above Y128.64

to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $1295.9 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15

*PRICE: $1279 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1275.8 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 2: $1275.0 - 2018 Low June 15 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support 

*SUP 4: $1234.1 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1310.5 resistance reconfirmed significance with the pop above

the 200-DMA ($1306.4) lacking follow through. Friday's sell-off resulted in 2018

lows with immediate pressure on the 100-WMA. Bears need a close below the

100-WMA to add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA. Bulls now need a

close above $1286.2 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return

pressure to $1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $65.42 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: $67.25 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $66.18 - Low June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $65.42 - Low June 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: $64.95 - Hourly resistance June 15

*PRICE: $64.85 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $64.09 - Low June 15 

*SUP 2: $63.14 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low 

*SUP 3: $62.52 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $61.43 - Low Apr 6

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA reconfirmed significance with the contract aggressively

rejected ahead of this level Friday. The sell-off that followed leaves the

contract looking heavy and bears now focused on the bull channel base off Aug 30

lows coming in around $63.14 today. Bears need a close below the channel base to

add weight to the case for a test of the 200-DMA ($59.83). Bull snow need a

close above $65.42 to ease bearish pressure.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]