MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7326 To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18

*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7366 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7344 - 2018 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 has resulted in fresh 2018 &

12month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017 lows.

Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close above

$0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus back to

$0.7527-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7535) & 55 ($0.7575) DMAs are noted. Bears now need

a close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Pressuring 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6918 - Low June 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6894 - Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: $0.6860 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6849 - 2018 Low May 16

*SUP 2: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: $0.6779 - 2017 Low Nov 17

*SUP 4: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through the past week or so and

hesitation ahead of $0.7059 combined with daily studies at O/B levels resulted

in losses last week with immediate focus on 2018 lows. Fresh 2018 lows are now

required to confirm focus on $0.6779 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above

$0.6918 to gain breathing room and above $0.6999 to return focus to layers of

resistance $0.7054-0.7198.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0759-93 Resistance Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.0811 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0759 - High June 15

*RES 1: NZ$1.0748 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0737 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0715 - Hourly support June 20

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support has so far lacked follow

through which is less than ideal with daily studies at O/S. The NZ$1.0759-93

resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0759 to gain breathing

room and above NZ$1.0793 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0854-1.0906 where the

200-DMA is noted. Bears now focus on a close below NZ$1.0655 to add weight to

the case for a test of NZ$1.0486-00 where the LT rising TL is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Close Above Y81.89 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: Y81.89 - Low June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.31 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.99 - Low June 20

*SUP 2: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.73) resulted in a close below

last Thursday, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 2018 lows. Daily

studies approaching O/S is an issue as is the Bollinger base (Y80.95) limiting

follow through. Bulls need a close above Y81.89 to gain breathing room and above

Y82.97 to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.63-85.16 where the

200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5771 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 2: A$1.5771 - Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 1: A$1.5770 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5703 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5664 - Hourly support June 20 

*SUP 2: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5541 - Low June 18 

*SUP 4: A$1.5477 - Hourly support June 15

*COMMENTARY: Last week's late recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (A$1.5356)

saw gains continue Tuesday only to remain capped ahead of the key A$1.5771

resistance. Bulls need a close above A$1.5771 to confirm breaks of 55 &

100-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to A$1.5887-1.5967 and overall focus to tests

of 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below A$1.5615 to gain breathing room

as daily studies linger at O/B levels.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.575 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: 95.296 - 2018 High June 19

*PRICE: 95.121 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.534 - Low June 19

*SUP 2: 94.164 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.043) is less than ideal with the 100-WMA lurking just above. Bulls need a

close above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617. Daily studies approaching

O/B is now an issue. Bears now need a close below 94.534 to gain breathing room

and below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back

to 93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 2018 Lows

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1673 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1618 Hourly support June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1570 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1528 Low June 19 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears remain focused on tests of 2018 lows although follow through

remains lacking with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows. The Bollinger base

($1.1511) is the key concern for bears and limits follow through. Bears continue

to look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1429) & 200-WMAs,

shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to shift focus back to $1.1854-94.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 2: Y110.62 Hourly resistance June 8 

*RES 1: Y110.23 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y110.34 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.25 Hourly resistance June 20 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.82 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.53 Low June 19 

*SUP 4: Y109.24 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the close above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) but

look for a close above Y110.90 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and shift

initial focus to Y111.39-98. Y109.01 support remains key this week. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially pressure

Y107.85-108.16 where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back

to 2018 lows. Daily studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.00 Hourly support June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.71 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.09 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off this week follow through has been

lacking. Bears focus on the Y126.22 support with a close below to add weight to

the case for a test of 2018 lows and a potential move back to the bull channel

base (Y122.89). Bulls continue to look for a close above Y128.64 to gain

breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA once again.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Look For Weekly Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1293.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 2: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 1: $1275.3 - 100-WMA

*PRICE: $1267.7 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue with bears now looking for a weekly

close below the 100-WMA to add significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. Gold remains heavy with the Bollinger

base ($1273.9) the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above $1284.1

to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to return pressure to $1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $61.43 & $68.52 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $67.38 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $66.77 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.35 - High June 20

*PRICE: $65.34 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $64.79 - Low June 20 

*SUP 2: $64.23 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: $63.98 - Low June 18 

*SUP 4: $63.36 - Daily bull channel base off Aug 30 low

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil remaining capped ahead of

layers of resistance. The $66.77-68.52 resistance region where the 21 & 55-DMAs

are located remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below the

bull channel base ($63.36) off Aug 30 lows to reconfirm the bearish bias and

initially pressure $61.43.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]