MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below $0.7326 To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18

*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7375 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 continues to result in fresh

2018 & 12month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017

lows. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close

above $0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus

back to $0.7526-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7526) & 55 ($0.7569) DMAs are noted. Bears

now need a close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6918-99 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.6999 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: $0.6969 - Low June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6918 - Low June 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6894 - Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: $0.6865 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6863 - Hourly support June 21

*SUP 2: $0.6846 - Hourly support June 21a

*SUP 3: $0.6823 - 2018 Low June 21

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow through on fresh 2018 & 7mth lows is

less than ideal for bears given daily studies approaching O/S and the Bollinger

base at $0.6859. Bulls look for a close above $0.6918 to gain breathing room and

above $0.6999 to return focus to $0.7039-0.7198 where key DMAs are noted. Bears

now look for a close below $0.6815 to add weight to the case for a test of

$0.6779 2017 lows with overall focus on the weekly bear channel base ($0.6580).

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above NZ$1.0793

*RES 4: NZ$1.0810 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0793 - High June 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0777 - High June 21

*RES 1: NZ$1.0748 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0738 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0715 - Hourly support June 20

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0655 - Low May 9 & June 19

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key NZ$1.0697 support has lacked follow through

which is less than ideal with daily studies at O/S. The NZ$1.0777-93 resistance

remains key. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0793 to shift focus back to

NZ$1.0854-1.0906 where the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0865) is noted. Bears now focus on a

close below NZ$1.0655 to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0486-00 where

the LT rising TL is noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y81.89

*RES 4: Y83.37 - Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 3: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 1: Y81.89 - Low June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.08 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.99 - Low June 20

*SUP 2: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 55-DMA (Y82.71) resulted in a close below

last Thursday, ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 2018 lows. Daily

studies approaching O/S is an issue as is the Bollinger base (Y80.70) limiting

follow through. Bulls need a close above Y81.89 to gain breathing room and above

Y82.97 to shift focus back to layers of resistance Y83.63-85.12 where the

200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Above A$1.5771 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 1: A$1.5771 - Low May 11 now resistance, 100-DMA, 21-WMA

*PRICE: A$1.5724 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5676 - Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5541 - Low June 18 

*SUP 4: A$1.5477 - Hourly support June 15

*COMMENTARY: Last week's late recovery from a dip below the 55-WMA (A$1.5357)

saw gains continue Tuesday only to remain capped ahead of the key A$1.5771

resistance. Bulls need a close above A$1.5771 to confirm breaks of 55 &

100-DMAs, shifting immediate focus to A$1.5887-1.5967 and overall focus to tests

of 2018 highs. Bears now look for a close below A$1.5615 to gain breathing room

as daily studies linger at O/B levels.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 95.573 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 2: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 1: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21

*PRICE: 94.880 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.678 - Low June 21

*SUP 2: 94.534 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: 94.204 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.042) continues with the rejection around the 100-WMA resulting in a bearish

key day reversal and leaving the index looking offered. Bears continue to look

for a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial

focus back to 93.193. Bulls now need a close above 95.040 to gain breathing room

and above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Double Daily Bottom In Play

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1669 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $1.1602 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday leaves a double daily bottom in place around the

2018 low with the Bollinger base ($1.1509) remaining a concern for bears. Bears

need a close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100

($1.1429) & 200 ($1.1406) may support along the way. Bulls continue to look for

a close above $1.1660 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to shift focus

back to $1.1854-94.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 1: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.97 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.84 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.53 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y109.28 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 again having failed to

gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.23). Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to

confirm traction and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears need a close below

Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially pressure Y107.85-108.15

where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

Daily studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.01 Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: Y127.60 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off early this week downside follow

through has been lacking. Bears remain focused on the Y126.22 support with a

close below needed to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows and a

potential move back to the bull channel base (Y122.89). Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y128.64 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure

the 55-DMA once again.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Look For Weekly Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1275.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1270.0 - Low June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $1266.8 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue with bears now looking for a weekly

close below the 100-WMA to add significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. The lack of follow through Thursday is a

concern for bears with the Bollinger base ($1269.2) proving problematic. Bulls

now need a close above $1270.0 to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to

return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $63.36 & $68.52 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 3: $67.44 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $66.49 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $66.35 - High June 20

*PRICE: $65.84 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $65.19 - Hourly resistance June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $64.79 - Low June 20 

*SUP 3: $64.23 - Low June 19 

*SUP 4: $63.98 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil remaining capped ahead of

layers of resistance. The $66.49-68.52 resistance region where the 21 & 55-DMAs

are located remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes

and shift initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below

$63.40 confirm a break of the bull channel base and to reconfirm the bearish

bias initially pressuring $61.43.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]