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MNI BOC Preview - December 2021: Hawkish Hold?

MNI BOC Preview - December 2021: Hawkish Hold?

MNI BOC Preview - December 2021: Hawkish Hold?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Adept at threading the policy needle over the past one-plus year, the challenge for the Bank of Canada is weighing the rise in inflation, surge in employment and uncertainty over the Omicron-Covid heading into the winter.
  • While markets are pricing in a March 2022 liftoff, the first rate hike since October 2018, some dealers posit the pace may accelerate with the bank giving a nod toward tighter policy at the December meeting for a hike in January or January nod for March.
  • Sell-side analysts are in unanimous agreement the Bank of Canada will hold the policy rate at 0.25bp Wednesday. The days of holding policy rate at the lower bound are growing short, however. Sell-side analyst opinions vary on the timing and pace of liftoff in 2022, while current market pricing in .25bp hike in March 2022.
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MNI Bank of Canada December 2021 Preview.pdf

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