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MNI BOE Preview: On Hold

BOE
  • There is a unanimous expectation that the MPC will vote to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% at its November policy meeting.
  • The MNI Markets team (as well as the majority of the sellside) expect a 6-3 vote breakdown with Mann, Haskel and Greene continuing to vote for a 25bp hike and Cunliffe’s replacement Sarah Breeden likely voting with the other internal MPC members and preferring rates to remain on hold.
  • Forward guidance is likely to remain unchanged.
  • In terms of market reaction, we think that the main driving factor is likely to be the vote breakdown. If there are less than three hawkish dissenters we could see a small dovish reaction in markets. If Dhingra votes for a cut, we could also see a small dovish reaction. Conversely if there is another 5-4 split this could see a hawkish market outcome.
  • We have read through and summarised 19 analyst previews:
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