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MNI BoJ Preview - March 2024: Policy Normalisation Is Here

BOJ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Regarding the decision this week the primary question revolves around whether the central bank will immediately terminate its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) or postpone such action for another month and a half.
  • While a move in March is not set in stone, we anticipate the BoJ to announce the attainment of its 2% price stability target and exit NIRP.
  • This decision is likely to have been ‘green-lighted’ by the technical recession in 2H-23 being revised away, recent wage negotiations indicating a significant increase, and the BoJ’s preferred inflation measure expected to remain above 2% this year.
  • Despite the debate in the markets over March versus April, the key takeaway from tomorrow’s meeting is that the BoJ seems to have made up its mind to act by the end of spring.
  • Therefore, even if the BoJ opts to hold off in March, it would be expected to provide a clear indication that it is contemplating action at its next policy meeting scheduled for April 25th-26th
  • Full preview here:
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