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BLOCK, Sep'22 1Y Strip

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  • In line with the guidance from the October meeting statement, the Copom will likely raise the Selic rate by a further 150bp this week, to 9.25%.
  • IPCA inflation hovering just below 11%, as well as the continued pressure on 2022 inflation expectations, confirm the need for further aggressive monetary tightening.
  • Calls for an even greater acceleration of the hiking pace have largely been dispelled given the latest dip in GDP figures, combined with the reductions to 2022 growth expectations.
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