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At least two provinces in China have reported new swine fever cases in recent days, according to local media, raising concerns over a virus return, which could drive up pork prices which are heavily-weighted in China's CPI index. The hangover from 2018's African Swine Fever kept pork prices elevated for almost two years, pushing CPI above 5% at one point. However, as the fever dissipated through 2019 and 2020, supply returned to more normal levels, pushing prices lower and CPI eventually troughed at -0.3% in November.
Any reduction in supply will push prices higher, threatening the outlook for China's 2021 inflation outlook.