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Economists Survey Raises 2021 CPI Forecast To 4.9%

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Governing Council members at September's ECB monetary policy meeting were divided over whether asset purchases under PEPP should be higher or lower than the more moderate pace proposed by the Philip Lane, the official account shows, although no figures are given, and all members agreed with the proposal in light of persistently favourable financing conditions and an improved inflation outlook.

Dissatisfaction with the ECB's macroeconomic modelling was expressed by some participants, with a suggestion that closer attention should be paid to data collected from businesses, unions and households given the possible "regime shift" taking place post-Covid 19.

It was noted that even if the current inflation shock were to prove temporary, it would only require a relatively small percentage of the current shock to become permanent for inflation to be close to 2 per cent at the end of the projection horizon. Some members suggested that the inflation outlook for 2023 is more uncertain than the ECB's baseline scenario assumes, with the risk that inflation in 2023 might turn out to be higher than projected.