MNI BRIEF: Eurozone Faces 2023 Gas Shortage-IEA

The eurozone faces a gas supply crunch next year as Chinese output returns to 2019 levels, Russian supply dries up and global LNG supplies rise only slightly, the International Energy Agency and the European Commission said on Monday.

“Next year, we will likely not have any Russian gas in our system,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, adding that Europe’s supply demand gap may reach 30bcm.

In response, the IEA and Commission propose policies including efficiency measures, joint purchases, consumer behaviour changes and incentivising exporters not to flare gas.

Russian supply has fallen to 60bcm from 140bcm in 2021, with only 20bcm of additional LNG capacity available from the U.S. and elsewhere this year, Birol said. But EU gas storage build has been successful ahead of the 2022-23 winter, with capacity now filled to over 90%, he said. (See MNI INTERVIEW: EU Needs Cheap U.S. LNG To Avert IRA Trade War)

Speaking at the same press conference, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Commission’s joint-purchasing proposal should be politically agreed this week. She will discuss how to lower gas prices in the short-term and secure longer-term supplies with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and French President Emmanuel Macron tonight, with long-term contracts and joint purchasing among options.