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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: UK CPI Surges To Near Decade High On Base Effects
Annual rate up by record-high 1.2 percentage points between July and August
UK consumer price inflation surged to an annual rate of 3.2% in August, up from 2.0% in July. That's the highest outturn since March 2012, and the biggest single month change in in the annual rate since the series began in January 1997.
The restaurant and hotel sector accounted for 0.69 percentage points of the change in CPI, with prices in the sector depressed in August of 2020 by the Eat Out to Help Out scheme and reduced VAT payments. ONS economists estimate that the falling away of the EOHO programme alone contributed to 0.4pp of the total rise, but noted some unrelated price increases in the sector last month. The extreme distortion of the EOHO scheme overshadowed the broad-based nature of the jump in inflation. However, ONS official did stress that the statistical agency does "expect this [month's large rise] to be a temporary effect."
Second-had car prices rose by 4.9% between July and August, or by 18.3% at an annual pace, contributing another 0.06 percentage points to the change in CPI. With a shortage of computer chips limited the supply of new cars, used-car prices could continue to lift inflation in the months to come.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.