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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI CBRT Preview - September 2022: Expected Unchanged Despite August Surprise
Executive Summary:
- CBRT is expected to leave rates at 13.00%, with risks skewed to the downside
- The bank remains under considerable political influence and is willing to look through inflation in excess of 80%
- Looking ahead, rate cuts are the more likely tail risk, with Erdogan appearing unwilling to tighten policy ahead of an election campaign next year
Full piece here: MNICBRTPrevSep22.pdf
Since March 2021, Governor Kavcıoğlu has overseen 600bps of rate cuts for the CBRT, clearly going against the trend of global tightening. Markets perceive this as suggestive of political motivation underpinning this unorthodox approach during a rapid inflationary phase. The August 100bp repo-rate cut contradicts the 'Liraization' strategy as it pushes real yields to deeper negative territory. This should continue to weigh on the TRY in the medium term, in line with the depreciation experiences in economies with deep negative real rates this year.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.