MNI China Press Digest Sep 14: Yuan, Exports, Q4 GDP

The following lists highlights from Chinese press reports on Wednesday:

• The yuan is unlikely to depreciate over the long term as China's economy is stabilising and the trade surplus remains high, the China Securities Journal reported citing analysts. Any short-term currency fluctuations will be controlled by authorities as they have sufficient tools to prevent overshooting. The yuan's recent weakness reflects the Fed’s monetary tightening and the impact of the European energy crisis, the newspaper said citing CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming. Ming said the yuan breaching the 7 mark against the U.S. dollar was not as important as it had been in the past. Both the onshore and offshore yuan rebounded over the past week after approaching 7 several times. The onshore yuan closed at 6.9311 on Tuesday.
• China’s foreign trade may build on the positive momentum recorded in the first half of the year, with net exports likely to contribute more to GDP in H2 than H1's 0.9pps, the Securities Times reported citing CASS Institute of World Economics and Politics research fellow Ni Yueju. Ni believes China will remain an attractive supplier of goods as its stable supply of raw materials and energy allows manufacturers to enjoy lower costs at a time of elevated global inflation. China is expected to expand exports into the ASEAN market to offset falling demand in developed economies. It should also benefit as demand for high energy consuming manufactured products is transferred to China while Europe is gripped by an energy crisis.
• China should continue to roll out stimulus to boost consumption and investment to offset any slowdown in external demand, the Securities Daily reported citing analysts. China can increase the quota of targeted lending that policy banks can allocate to infrastructure projects, while local governments can issue more consumer coupons to promote car sales and expand subsidies for buying new cars. It is expected that Q4 GDP may fall within a range of 4.5-5%, dragged down by slower export growth despite improvements in consumption and investment, the newspaper said citing AVIC Securities chief economist Dong Zhongyun.