MNI: China’s Steel Exports Seen Down As Protection Spreads
MNI (BEIJING) - China will export about 80-100 million tonnes of steel this year, down from 2024’s 110 million tones, local analysts told MNI, noting U.S. tariffs targeting the commodity will likely have little impact and have already been factored in.
“Exports will decline but remain relatively firm given price competitiveness against other major exporters such as India and Japan,” said an analyst at one commodity research firm, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the matter, noting China faced 33 trade investigations with several countries in 2024, up from 15 cases filed from 2021 to 2023.
But tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump make little difference to the outlook, according to Vivian Yang, senior analyst at Mysteel, a commodity research firm in Shanghai, who noted that direct shipments to the U.S. account for only 0.8% of China's total steel exports.
"Rising trade tensions will see outbound volumes fall to about 100 million tonnes, an outlook unmodified by Trump’s steel tariffs," Yang said.
Similarly, Lange Steel chief researcher Wang Guoqing pointed to rising global protectionism as a constraint on overall sales.
Brazil, a major importer of Chinese steel, introduced an additional 25% tariff on ferrous imports in 2024, while Mexico imposed duties up to 80% on Vietnam, which accounted for 23% of China's steel exports, to address concerns over transit shipments.
“We still expect steel exports between 80-100 million tonnes this year, unchanged since U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement,” Wang said. (See MNI: Firm China Copper Demand To Support Prices)