MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD/USD Clears Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – AUD/USD Clears Key Resistance

• E-Mini S&P futures traded to a fresh weekly high Thursday and moved above the 20-day EMA at 4393.16. The break of this EMA suggests scope for an extension of the current corrective recovery and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 4473.77. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded lower again today to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. The contract has retraced just over 50.0% of the entire bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21.
• In FX, EURUSD has resumed its downtrend and technical signals suggest an extension lower is likely near-term. Moving average studies point south and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. GBPUSD is consolidating. A bearish theme continues to dominate following the sell-off on Jan 24 and attention is on that day's 1.3273 low. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. AUDUSD continues to climb as the pair extends the rebound from 0.6968, the Jan 28 low. The pair has cleared resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher.
• Gold is trading near its recent highs and has again tested levels above the top of its bull channel. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1943.4. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains have highlighted a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This rally has also confirmed an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend following a sharp rally Tuesday. This resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 168.44. The average represented a key resistance area and the clear break of it signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures rallied Tuesday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher highlights a short-term bullish theme and marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery from 121.10, the Feb 16 low.

• Price action in AUD has been solid across 2022, with AUD the best performing currency in G10 year-to-date. The strength in AUD comes despite the ongoing Ukraine crisis and the spike higher in equity and US Treasury volatility - which is usually correlated with AUD weakness.
• Instead, AUD rates have become more clearly determined by monetary policy expectations, with the row back in pricing for ECB rate hikes this year contrasting with more solid RBA pricing. Read more here: https://marketnews.com/cautious-rba-could-work-against-further-aud-progress

EUR/AUD through horizontal setup across the mid-2018 and 2021 lows

Source:MNI/Bloomberg

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.1396 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 1.1328 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1257/80 20-day EMA / Low Feb 14
• RES 1: 1.1121 Low Jan 28
• PRICE: 1.1027 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.1010 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0976 2.00 projection of the Jan - Jun - May ‘21 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0934 Low May 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0871 Low May 25, 2020

EURUSD has resumed its downtrend and technical signals suggest an extension lower is likely near-term. Moving average studies point south and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. 1.1040, 76.4% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 bull cycle has been cleared. This opens 1.1000 and 1.0976, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1121, Jan 28 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Pressure Likely To Resume

• RES 4: 1.3749 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3662 High Jan 20 and the 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• RES 1: 1.3439/87 High Feb 25 / Low Feb 15
• PRICE: 1.3342 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.3273/72 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3240 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 1.3174 Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: 1.3163 Low Dec 8 and a key support

GBPUSD is consolidating. A bearish theme continues to dominate following the sell-off on Jan 24 and attention is on that day's 1.3273 low. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of support at 1.3358, the Jan 27 low. 1.3301, 76.4% of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 rally has also been probed. A clear break of the retracement would reinforce bearish conditions and open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. Resistance is seen at 1.3487.

EURGBP TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 3: 0.8406 High Feb 25 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8353 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8306 Low Feb 24
• PRICE: 0.8266 @ 06:27 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 2: 0.7218 50.0% retracement of the 2015 - 2019 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.8193 1.236 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8169 1.382 proj of the Feb 7 - 24 - 25 price swing

EURGBP continues to head south. This week’s move lower has resulted in a break of support at 0.8285, Feb 3 low and a move through key support at 0.8282/77, the Feb ’20 and Dec’19 lows and a key bear trigger. Note that prices below 0.8300 highlight a potential break of the base of a multi-year range - a key bearish development if confirmed. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8306, the Feb 24 low. The focus is on 0.8242 next.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidating But Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.87 High Feb 15
• PRICE: 115.52 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 114.41 Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY is unchanged but maintains a bullish theme. The pair continues to trade above the Feb 24 low of 114.41 and more importantly above a key support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low. While the latter support holds, the trend condition remains bullish highlighted too by a positive moving average set-up. Stronger gains would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. A break of 114.16, would instead highlight a bearish threat.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• RES 2: 129.94 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 128.77 High Mar 2
• PRICE: 127.29 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 126.93 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 126.71 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 126.44 Low Feb 9 2021
• SUP 4: 125.82 1.236 proj of the Jan - Sep - Oct ‘21 price swing

EURJPY has traded lower today to confirm a resumption of its current downtrend. The cross has this week cleared key support at 128.25, Jan 25 low and traded below the December 3/6 2021 low of 127.39. This opens 126.44 next, the Feb 9 2021 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 128.77, the Mar 2 high ahead of the 50-day EMA at 129.94. A break of this EMA is required to suggest a base.

AUDUSD TECHS: Through Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.7432 High Nov 9
• RES 3: 0.7393 High Nov 10
• RES 2: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7363 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7349 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 0.7239/7197 Low Mar 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7095 Low Feb 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020

AUDUSD continues to climb as the pair extends the rebound from 0.6968, the Jan 28 low. The pair has cleared resistance at 0.7314, Jan 13 high, reinforcing bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher Moving average studies are turning bullish. A confirmed reversal to bull-mode in these indicators, would highlight a positive medium-term outlook. Key support has been defined at 0.7095, Feb 24 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2878 High Feb 24 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2750 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.2696 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2451 LowJan 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded lower Thursday but has recovered from this week’s low of 1.2587. The move lower marks an extension of the recent reversal from 1.2878, Feb 24 high and signals potential for a deeper retracement of the recent Jan 19 - Feb 24 upleg. The pair has breached 61.8% of this bull cycle and this has opened 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement. Initial resistance is seen at Tuesday’s 1.2750 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Bullish Tone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 172.50 76.4% retracement of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 3: 172.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.53 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 170.94/171.12 61.8% of Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg / High Mar 1
• PRICE: 169.89 @ 05:06 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 168.46 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 167.31 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 165.87/16 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend following a sharp rally Tuesday. This resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA at 168.44. The average represented a key resistance area and the clear break of it signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on 170.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement that was also probed Tuesday. A resumption of gains would open 172.00. Initial support is at 168.46, yesterday’s low.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.400 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 134.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 133.980 High Dec 22
• RES 1: 133.740 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 133.080 @ 05:14 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 132.360 Low Mar 3
• SUP 2: 131.762/130.710 20-day EMA / Low Feb 22 and 23
• SUP 3: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain bullish following Tuesday’s sharp rally that marks an extension of the recovery from the Feb 10 low of 130.080. This week’s impulsive gains have resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs to reinforce and strengthen the current bullish theme. Price has also breached resistance at 133.250, the Jan 24 high and this opens the 134.00 handle next. Initial support is seen at Thursday’s low of 132.360.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Northbound

• RES 4: 112.708 1.500 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 112.623 1.382 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 112.519 1.236 proj of the Feb 2 - 22 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 112.465 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 112.295 @ 05:18 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 112.050 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 111.815/635 Low Feb 28 / Low Feb 23
• SUP 3: 111.545 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 111.420 Low Feb 11

Schatz futures remain bullish. Tuesday’s climb resulted in a clear breach of resistance at 112.145, the Jan 24 high. The break significantly strengthens the current bullish outlook and also confirms a full reversal of this year's initial bearish price action. With 112.305 cleared too, the Nov 26 high, scope is seen for gains towards 112.519, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, support is seen at 112.050, Thursday’s low.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 127.47 2.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 126.90 2.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 126.81 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 124.41 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 123.50 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 122.76 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 122.04 Low Feb 23 and a key intraday support
• SUP 4: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures rallied Tuesday and this resulted in a break out of its recent range. The move higher highlights a short-term bullish theme and marks an impulsive extension of the current recovery from 121.10, the Feb 16 low. This signals scope for a climb towards 126.90 and 127.47 next, Fibonacci projections based on a recent price swing. Key S/T support has been defined at Tuesday’s low of 123.50. Pullbacks, for now, are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 148.02 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 147.39 High Jan 3
• RES 2: 147.06 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 145.87 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 143.29 @ Close Mar 3
• SUP 1: 141.91 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 138.63/06 Low Feb 22 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)

The BTP futures short-term outlook remains bullish following Tuesday’s strong gains as the contract extended the retracement of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. Price has breached 144.94, 76.4% of the Jan 31 - Feb 16 downleg. This has opened 147.06 next, the Jan 31 high. A break of 147.06 would further strengthen the current bullish condition. Firm support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 141.91.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4671.75 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4586.00 High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4473.77 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4418.75 High MAr 3
• PRICE: 4338.75 @ 06:58 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 4227.50/4101.75 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P futures traded to a fresh weekly high Thursday and moved above the 20-day EMA at 4393.16. The break of this EMA suggests scope for an extension of the current corrective recovery and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 4473.77. This average represents a key near-term resistance, with trend conditions still highlighting a downtrend. Initial support is seen at 4227.50, Feb 25 low.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 3: 4250.00 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 4086.00 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3.847.00/4003.30 High Mar 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3640.00 @ 05:47 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: 3620.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3560.30 1.764 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3468.606 61.8% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded lower again today to confirm a resumption of this year’s downtrend. The contract has retraced just over 50.0% of the entire bull cycle between Mar ‘20 - Nov ‘21. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode condition and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs suggests more weakness lies ahead. The focus is on 3560.30, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is at 3847.00.COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $132.33- 3.382 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $129.43 - 3.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $124.74 - 3.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• PRICE: $111.82 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $106.83 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $98.30 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Fev 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: $89.65 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures continued to climb Thursday but did face resistance just ahead of the $120.00 handle. The outlook remains bullish and this week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and resulted in a clear break of the psychological $100.00 mark. The focus is on $120.00 where a break would signal scope for a climb towards 124.74, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at Wednesday’s $106.83 low.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Bulls Still In The Driving Seat

• RES 4: $128.13 - 3.382 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 3: $125.27 - 3.236 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 2: $120.64 - 3.00 proj of the Aug - Oct - Dec ‘21 price swing
• RES 1: $116.57/120.00 - High Mar 3 / Psychological round number
• PRICE: $109.23 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $105.18 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $95.32 - Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $87.46 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and this week’s gains have highlighted a significant acceleration of the uptrend. This rally has also confirmed an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The $100.00 level has been cleared and strengthens current trend conditions. The focus is on the $120.00 handle next, a psychological hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $105.18.

GOLD TECHS: Testing The Bull Channel Top

• RES 4: $1992.5 - High Sep 1 2020
• RES 3: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $1974.3 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $1950.9 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1937.4 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $1853.9 - High Jan 25
• SUP 3: $1844.7 - Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold is trading near its recent highs and has again tested levels above the top of its bull channel. The channel is drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low and intersects at $1943.4. A clear break higher would reinforce bullish conditions and open the Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Key short-term support is unchanged at the Feb 24 low of $1878.4 low where a break would suggest the tide has turned and instead signal scope for a deeper pullback within the channel.

SILVER TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: $26.775 - High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
• RES 1: $25.541/625 - High Mar 1 / High Feb 24
• PRICE: $25.129 @ 08:07 GMT Mar 4
• SUP 1: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 2: $23.651 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver remains below last week’s high of $25.625. Despite a recent pullback and volatile price action, the outlook remains bullish and scope is seen for a continuation higher to retest $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high. This level was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.850, the Feb 24 low. Dips would be considered corrective.