MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Threat In Bunds Remains Present
Price Signal Summary - Key Support In Bunds Remains Exposed
- A bear cycle in the E-mini S&P contract in play. Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme and suggests the recent shallow correction higher is over. Key short-term support has been defined at 4483.25, the Sep 7 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development and open 4397.75, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last Thursday but are pulling away from the recent peak. Last week’s gains threaten the recent bearish theme and signal a possible short-term reversal with a key support defined at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. A resumption of gains would expose resistance at 4388.00, the Aug 30 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case. For bears, a break of 4210.00, resumes the recent downtrend.
- In FX, EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the pair traded lower last week, breaching 1.0686, the Sep 7 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611,38.2% retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg. Initial firm resistance is 1.0786, the 20-day EMA. The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low last week. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is 1.2369 next, the Jun 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. Moving average studies remain in bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. On the downside, 144.45 represents key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. Initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.
- On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from last week’s $1901.1 low on Sep 14. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1927.9, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, a cleared break would be a bullish development and open key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading higher today. Last week’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The $90.00 handle has been cleared, this opens $92.17 next, the Nov 8 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is $85.46, the 20-day EMA.
- In the FI space, Bund futures reversed lower Friday and are starting the week on a bearish note. The contract is approaching last week’s low of 129.95 on Sep 13. A break would reinforce a bearish theme and pave the way for weakness towards support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is 131.49, the Sep 14 high. A break would be a bullish development. Gilt futures traded higher last week, extending the recovery from 93.36, the Sep 6 low. Key short-term resistance at 95.79, the Sep 1 high, has been breached and this signals a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17, opening 96.66 next,0.764 projection of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing. Price has pulled back from last week’s high and firm support is seen at 94.70, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support would signal a possible reversal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
- RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 1.0853 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0774 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0668 @ 05:30 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.0611 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg
- SUP 2: 1.00551 Low Mar 16
- SUP 3: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6
EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the pair traded lower last week, breaching 1.0686, the Sep 7 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 1.0786, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2637 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2548 High Sep 11 and Low Aug 25
- PRICE: 1.2394 @ 05:48 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.2369 Low Jun 5
- SUP 2: 1.2308 Low May 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2227 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2120 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 14 bull leg
The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low last week. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is 1.2369 next, the Jun 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8686 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
- RES 2: 0.8669 High Aug 11
- RES 1: 0.8631 High Sep 13
- PRICE: 0.8607 @ 05:59 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
- SUP 3: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.8489 1.0% 10-dma envelope
A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP, remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The cross has breached resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for 0.8639 next, the Aug 14 high. Note that the 100-day MA at 0.8611, has been pierced. The average represents an important resistance. Initial key support to watch lies at 0.8524, the Sep 5 low. A break would be bearish.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
- RES 3: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
- RES 1: 147.95 High Sep 15
- PRICE: 147.68 @ 06:11 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 145.91/07 Low Sep 11 / High Jun 30
- SUP 2: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
- SUP 3: 144.66 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 143.30 Low Aug 10
The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. Moving average studies remain in bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. On the downside, 144.45 represents key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. Initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
- RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 157.55 @ 06:52 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
- SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
- SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally
EURJPY key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.97. This average has been pierced. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal and expose 155.54, the Aug 3 low. On the upside, the bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, the Aug 30 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
- RES 3: 0.6520 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 and the key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6481 High Sep 4
- PRICE: 0.6446 @ 07:21 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Watching Key Support
- RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
- RES 3: 1.3726 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3714 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
- RES 1: 1.3593/95 High Sep 12 / 7
- PRICE: 1.3505 @ 07:24 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 1.3490 Low Sep 1 and key support
- SUP 2: 1.3474 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
- SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
USDCAD traded lower last week and the pair has approached key support at 1.3490, the Sep 1 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent bullish theme and suggest potential for a deeper pullback near-term. This would open 1.3474 initially, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3695, the Sep 7 high and bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support
- RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
- RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
- RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
- RES 1: 131.07/131.49 20-day EMA / High Sep 14
- PRICE: 130.09 @ 05:11 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 129.95 Low Sep 13
- SUP 2: 129.72 Low Aug 15 and key support
- SUP 3: 129.30 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
- SUP 4: 128.45 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
Bund futures reversed lower Friday and are starting the week on a bearish note. The contract is approaching last week’s low of 129.95 on Sep 13. A break would reinforce a bearish theme and pave the way for weakness towards support at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 131.49, the Sep 14 high. A break would be a bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
- RES 2: 116.890 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 116.740 High Sep 14
- PRICE: 116.130 @ 05:24 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 116.030 Low Sep 13
- SUP 2: 116.000 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 115.620 1.236 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb
- SUP 4: 115.385 1.382 retracement of the Aug 15 - Sep 1 climb
Bobl futures have reversed lower from last Thursday’s high and the contract is approaching the key support at 116.00, the Aug 15 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 1. This would open 115.620, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.740, the Sep 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a possible short-term base.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Southbound
- RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
- RES 3: 105.395 High Sep 5
- RES 2: 105.240/310 High Sep 12 / 8
- RES 1: 105.170 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 104.970 @ 10:07 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 104.940 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 104.930 1.50 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 104.880 1.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
- SUP 4: 104.819 1.764 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and Friday’s move lower reinforces this condition. Last week’s break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.930, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z3) Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 97.57 High Jul 24(cont)
- RES 3: 97.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 96.66 0.764 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: 96.49 High Sep 14
- PRICE: 95.37@ Close Sep 15
- SUP 1: 94.95 High Sep 8
- SUP 2: 94.70 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 94.05 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 93.36 Low Sep 6 and a key support
Gilt futures traded higher last week, extending the recovery from 93.36, the Sep 6 low. Key short-term resistance at 95.79, the Sep 1 high, has been breached and this signals a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17, opening 96.66 next, a Fibonacci projection, ahead of 97.00. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 94.70, the 20-day EMA. A reversal lower and a break of this support would signal a possible reversal.
BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bear Trend Intact
- RES 4: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
- RES 3: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 114.01 High Sep 8 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 112.45 @ Close Sep 15
- SUP 1: 111.97 Low Sep 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111.38 2.618 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
- SUP 3: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
- SUP 4: 110.00 Round number support
Friday’s sharp sell-off cancels a recent bullish threat and BTP futures remain in a downtrend - for now. The move lower Friday refocuses attention on key support at 111.97, the Sep 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 111.38, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 114.01, the Sep 8 high. A break would highlight a possible base.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Intact - For Now
- RES 4: 112-24+ High Jul 27
- RES 3: 112-14 High Aug 10
- RES 2: 112-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 110-07+ /111-12+ 20-day EMA / High Sep 1 key resistance
- PRICE: 109-14 @ 17:35 BST Sep 15
- SUP 1: 109-03 Low Sep 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 109-00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 108-20 1.000 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
- SUP 4: 107.23 1.236 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
The trend direction in Treasuries remains down and Wednesday’s low print of 109-03 reinforces the bearish theme. However, the recovery from Wednesday’s low was a bullish development and a hammer candle formation - a reversal signal - was confirmed at the close. This pattern suggests scope for a correction near-term. First resistance to watch is 110-07+, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 109-03 would resume the downtrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
- RES 3: 4409.60 61.8% retracement of the Jul 31 - Sep 8 downleg
- RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and key resistance
- RES 1: 4359.00 High Sep 15
- PRICE: 4322.00 @ 05:39 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 4305.50 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4210.00 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4163.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply higher last Thursday and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains threaten the recent bearish theme and signal a possible short-term reversal with a key support defined at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. A continuation higher would expose resistance at 4388.00, the Aug 30 high where a break would strengthen a bullish case. For bears, a break of 4210.00, resumes the recent downtrend.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and key resistance
- RES 3: 4673.50 High Aug 1
- RES 2: 4617.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 sell-off
- RES 1: 4566.00/4597.50 High Sep 15 / 1 and a near-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 4505.75 @ 06:31 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: 4483.25 Low Sep 7 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 4444.89 76.4% retracement of the Aug 18 - Sep 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 4412.25 Low Aug 25
- SUP 4: 4397.75 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
A bear cycle in the E-mini S&P contract remains in play. Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme and suggests the recent shallow correction higher is over. Key short-term support has been defined at 4483.25, the Sep 7 low. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bearish development and open 4397.75, the Aug 18 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead open 4597.50, the Sep 1 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $100.50 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
- RES 3: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
- RES 2: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
- RES 1: $94.79 - High Nov 16
- PRICE: $94.58 @ 06:52 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $89.06 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $85.28 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
- SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17
The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The extension confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on $96.95 next, the Nov 14 2022 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at the 20-EMA which intersects at $89.06 today.
WTI TECHS: (V3) Northbound
- RES 4: $97.15 - 2.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
- RES 3: $96.04 - 2.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
- RES 2: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
- RES 1: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
- PRICE: $91.57 @ 07:01 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $85.46/81.46 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $77.59 - Low Aug 24
- SUP 3: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
- SUP 4: $69.72 - Low Jul 3
The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the contract is trading higher today. Last week’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. The $90.00 handle has been cleared, this opens $92.17 next, the Nov 8 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is $85.46, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
- RES 2: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
- RES 1: $1939.0 - High Sep 5
- PRICE: $1930.1 @ 07:18 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $1901.1 - Low Sep 14
- SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
- SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg
Gold has recovered from last week’s $1901.1 low on Sep 14. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and highlight the fact that the recovery between Aug 21 - Sep 1 has been a correction. This would expose $1884.9, Aug 21 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $1927.9, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, a cleared break would be a bullish development and open key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high.
SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Recovery Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
- RES 1: $23.549/25.014 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
- PRICE: $23.126 @ 07:53 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $22.301 - Low Sep 14
- SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
- SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
Silver maintains a softer tone despite the recovery from last week’s low. The metal has recently breached $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The break signalled scope for a deeper pullback and a continuation lower would open $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. Initial firm resistance is at $23.529, the 50-day EMA.