MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Trend in Gold Results in Show Below 200-dma

Price Signal Summary – Bear Trend in Gold Results in Show Below 200-dma

• Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. The contract is through the 50-day EMA and has breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel base is at 4461.67. A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the recent reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current bearish conditions. The contract is testing support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low.
• The GBPUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the latest bounce. The Aug 14 low of 1.2621 marks the short-term bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a test of the next objective at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair touched a fresh cycle high of 145.87 yesterday. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 145.07, Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading higher. Attention is on 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen current bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 1.3585, the Jun 1 high.
• Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower again yesterday, maintaining the bear cycle that started Jul 20. Sights are on key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Price breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded sharply lower yesterday, before finding some support. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s sharp sell-off plus this week’s extension, reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through support at 93.70, the Aug 4 low and a bear trigger.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1229 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 1.0984 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0908 @ 05:30 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.0875 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.0834 Low Jul 6 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.0804 Low Jun 151
• SUP 4: 1.0754 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 15 low

The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south. Support at 1.0912, the Aug 3 low, has been cleared and this confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 18. The move lower signals scope for weakness towards 1.0834 next, the Jul 6 low and a key level. Price is also trading lower inside a bull channel drawn from Mar 15 low. The base of the channel lies at 1.0754. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1065, the Aug 10 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 1: 1.2765/2819 20-day EMA / High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• PRICE: 1.2698 @ 05:44 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.2617 Low Aug 14
• SUP 2: 1.2591 Low Jun 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.2439 1.618 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

The GBPUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the latest bounce. The Aug 14 low of 1.2621 marks the short-term bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a test of the next objective at 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and the next important support. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.2819, the Aug 19 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.

EURGBP TECHS: Breaches Support

• RES 4: 0.8719 High May 23 and a congestion high
• RES 3: 0.8701 High Jul 19
• RES 2: 0.8665/8669 100-dma / High Aug 11
• RES 1: 0.8613 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8587 @ 06:06 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 0.8574/44 Low Aug 15 / Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 0.8529 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8504 Low Jul 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 29 2022

EURGBP has failed to hold on to its recent highs and traded lower again Tuesday to extend the reversal from 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. The break lower suggests scope for weakness towards support at 0.8544, the Jul 27 low. Clearance of this level would expose 0.8504, the Jul 11 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. The key short-term hurdle for bulls is 0.8669.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 146.59 High Nov 10 2022
• RES 2: 146.38 1.764 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 145.87 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 145.46 @ 06:22 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 143.89 High Aug 3
• SUP 2: 143.03/141.55 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 138.07 Low Jul 28
• SUP 4: 137.25 Low Jul 14 and key support

The uptrend in USDJPY remains intact and the pair touched a fresh cycle high of 145.87 yesterday. Recent gains resulted in a break of resistance at 145.07, Jun 30 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and maintaining the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting bullish sentiment. The focus is on 146.38, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 143.03, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.34 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 158.81 @ 07:21 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 157.10/155.54 20-day EMA / Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 155.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 150.16 38.2% retracement of the Jan 3 - Jul 21 bull cycle

EURJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains strengthened bullish conditions and key resistance at 158.05, the Jul 21 high, has been breached. This confirms a continuation of the medium-term uptrend and opens 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting a rising trend. Initial firm support is 157.10, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through Key Support

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6652 50-day EMA
• RES 2:0.6593 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6522 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 0.6462 @ 08:01 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 0.6428 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct 13 ‘22 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022

Short-term AUDUSD trend conditions remain bearish and today’s move lower reinforces the current bearish theme. The pair has breached support at 0.6458, the May 31 low and bear trigger. This reinforces a downtrend and paves the way for weakness towards 0.6403, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 0.6522, yesterday’s low. A firmer resistance is at the 20-day EMA - at 0.6593.

USDCAD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3585 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 1.3523 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.3510 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3500 @ 08:07 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 1.3413 Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: 1.3351 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3320 Low Aug 4
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair is trading higher. Attention is on 1.3523, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen current bullish conditions and pave the way for a climb towards 1.3585, the Jun 1 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.3351, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective and this would allow an overbought condition to unwind.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Resumes Its Long-Term Downtrend

• RES 4: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 3: 133.45 High Aug 8
• RES 2: 132.31 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.26/67 High Aug 15 / 14
• PRICE: 130.74 @ 04:44 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 128.80 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and the contract traded sharply lower yesterday, before finding some support. 131.12, the Aug 4 low and 130.60, the Jul 10 low, have been cleared. This strengthens the current bearish theme and marks a resumption of the long-term downtrend. Attention turns to the Psychological 130.00 handle next. A break would open 129.69, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 131.26.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 116.600 High Jul 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.868/116.340 50-day EMA / High Aug 8
• RES 2: 115.639 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.260 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 115.030 @ 04:36 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 114.710 Low Aug 16
• SUP 2: 114.550 Low Jul 7 and a key support
• SUP 3: 114.180 Low Mar 7 (cont)
• SUP 4: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support

Bobl futures remain in a bearish mode and yesterday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. Support at 115.230, the Jul 13 and Aug 4 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for weakness towards 114.550, the Jul 7 and the next key support. A clear break of this level would represent an important technical break. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 115.639, the 20-day EMA. Initial resistance is at 115.260, yesterday’s high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 105.308 100-dma (cont)
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.098/165 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• RES 1: 105.017 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 104.875 @ 05:09 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 104.760 Low AUg 15
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday, extending the current bear cycle. Support at 104.805, the Jul 17 low, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 104.741, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for weakness towards 104.570, the Jul 6 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.017, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 96.19/81 High Jul 31 / 27
• RES 3: 95.82 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 94.72 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.70 Low Aug 4 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: 92.81 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 92.13 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 92.09 Low Jul 7 and a key support
• SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 91.68 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and Friday’s sharp sell-off plus this week’s extension, reinforces this condition. The contract has traded through support at 93.70, the Aug 4 low and a bear trigger. The breach marks a continuation of the bear cycle that started Jul 19 and opens 92.09 next, the Jul 7 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 95.82, the Aug 10 high. Initial resistance is at 93.70.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Sell-Off Exposes Key Support

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.86/117.48 High Jul 24 / 19
• RES 2: 115.15/116.02 50-day EMA High Aug 9
• RES 1: 114.21 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 113.74 @ Close Aug 15
• SUP 1: 113.04 Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: 112.95 Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

A bearish condition in BTP futures remains intact following the reversal that started Jul 19 and yesterday’s sell-off, reinforces current bearish conditions. The move lower exposes the next key support at 112.95, the Jul 11 low, A break of this support would strengthen the current bearish theme and open 112.48, the May 29 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 115.15, the 50-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Testing Support

• RES 4: 4539.20 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jul 3 - 7 price swing (cont)
• RES 3: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 2: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4360.40/4420.00 50-day EMA / High Aug 10
• PRICE: 4283.00 @ 05:33 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 4276.00 Low Aug 8 / 14
• SUP 2: 4220.00 Low Jul 7 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

A bearish threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present following the recent reversal from 4513.00, the Jul 31 high. Yesterday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current bearish conditions. The contract is testing support at 4276.00, the Aug 8 and 15 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4220.00, the Jul 7 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 4420.00, Aug 10 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4593.50/4634.50 High Aug 2 / Jul 27
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4515.45 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4456.75@ 08:05 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: 4447.00 Low Aug 15 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: 4411.25 Low Jul 10
• SUP 3: 4400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4368.50 Low Jun 26

Bearish conditions in the E-mini S&P contract remain intact and this week’s move lower has reinforced current conditions. The contract is through the 50-day EMA and has breached channel support drawn from the Mar 13 low - the channel base is at 4461.67. A clear channel breakout would signal scope for a continuation lower and open 4411.25, the Jul 10 low. Initial resistance to watch is at the 20-day EMA - at 4515.45.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.10 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $84.63 @ 06:15 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $82.36/81.05 - Low Aug 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Bullish conditions in Brent futures remain intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The move lower is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Last week’s rally confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for a climb towards the psychological $90.00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position reflecting current market sentiment. First key support lies at $82.36, the Aug 3 low.

WTI TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.43 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.94 - High Aug 23 2022
• RES 1: $84.89 - High Aug 10
• PRICE: $70.70 @ 06:25 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $78.69/77.18 - Aug 3 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.78 Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.82 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.98 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. Price breached resistance at $83.59, the Nov 7 2022 high. The break strengthened a bullish condition and has paved the way for a climb towards $87.43, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bull-mode condition highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support lies at $78.69, Aug 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2022.9 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 3: $1998.1 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Jun 29 bear leg
• RES 2: $1972.4/1987.5 - High Jul 31 / High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1931.4/41.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $1905.5 @ 07:17 BST Aug 15
• SUP 1: $1896.5 - Low Aug 15
• SUP 2: $1893.1 - Jun 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Gold remains bearish and the yellow metal traded lower again yesterday, maintaining the bear cycle that started Jul 20. Sights are on key support at $1893.1, the Jun 29 low. A break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is $1941.6, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would highlight a possible short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $25.920 - High May 10
• RES 1: $23.634/25.267 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 20
• PRICE: $22.659 @ 07:26 BST Aug 16
• SUP 1: $22.227 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: $20.591 - Low Mar 13

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact following last week’s extension lower and this week’s fresh cycle low. The continuation lower signals scope for a move towards $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme. Key resistance is at $25.267, the Jul 20 high. Initial resistance to watch is $23.634, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.