MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bull Cycle Persists in WTI

Price Signal Summary – Bull Cycle Persists in WTI

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal signal highlighting the end of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement.
• A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play, and this week’s low print reinforces the current trend set-up. Key support at 1.2670, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584, the May 15 low. The trend in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair has traded higher today. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend. AUDUSD continues to trade inside a range that highlights two important levels; a key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and a key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers.
• A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.1. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract is trading higher today. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been pierced.
• Bund futures have traded lower this week - a correction. A bull cycle is in play and the latest pause still appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 132.83, May 16 high. These factors strengthen a bullish theme. A pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains resulted in a break of 97.86, Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend that started May 29.

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0775 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0749 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0691 @ 06:14 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD is trading inside a range as the pair remains in consolidation mode, for now. The trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies have crossed and are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a downtrend. 1.0675, 76.4% of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.0650 next, the May 1 low. Initial firm resistance is 1.0775, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Short-Term Structure

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12 And the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2629 @ 06:36 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.2613 Low June 27
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

A bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play, and this week’s low print reinforces the current trend set-up. Key support at 1.2670, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 3: 0.8538 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8504 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8470/78 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
• PRICE: 0.8463 @ 06:51 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. The latest move down, reinforced the bear cycle and has maintained the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is at 0.8470, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.8504.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 163.362.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 162.27 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 161.50 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 161.27 Intraday high
• PRICE: 161.05 @ 05:59 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 159.62/158.30 Low Jun 26 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.96 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
• SUP 3: 156.49 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair has traded higher today. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 161.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend. Initial key support to watch is 158.30, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 173.84 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 173.05 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 172.71 1.00 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 172.38 Intraday high
• PRICE: 172.09 @ 07:11 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 170.14 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.01/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
• SUP 3: 167.33 Low May 16
• SUP 4: 165.64 Low May 7

The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above key resistance and the bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high. The price appreciation confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are set on 172.71, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 170.14, the 20-day EMA. Key trendline support, drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low, is at 169.01.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6631 @ 07:55 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

AUDUSD continues to trade inside a range that highlights two important levels; a key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and a key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break through 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. Looking at MA studies, they are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3734/3792 High Jun 27 / Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3716 @ 08:04 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.3626/3590 Low Jun 25 / Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD has recovered from its most recent lows. Price has recently traded through the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3677, the 50-day EMA. The break signals scope for a continuation lower, potentially towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. Clearance of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish and a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 133.94 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.71 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 133.21 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 131.97 @ 05:32 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 131.81/68 50-day EMA / Low Jun 27
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Bund futures have traded lower this week - a correction. A bull cycle is in play and the latest pause still appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 132.83, May 16 high. These factors strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher towards 133.42, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support at 131.80, the 50-day EMA, has been tested. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 117.440 High May 16 2024 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 116.550 @ 05:46 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 116.387/380 20-day EMA / Low Jun 27
• SUP 2: 115.790 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10

Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. This confirmed a stronger bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 117.380 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 116.366, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support Is Intact

• RES 4: 106.225 3.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.091 2.618 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.975 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 105.730 @ 05:59 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 105.625 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is still in play. The recent move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 / 5 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 106.009 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined at 105.625, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 100.21 1.50 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 98.54/99.25 High Jun 26 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
• PRICE: 98.00 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 97.63 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 97.50 Trendline support drawn from the May 29 low
• SUP 3: 96.89 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support

A pullback in Gilt futures is considered corrective - for now. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains resulted in a break of 97.86, Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend that started May 29. Note too that 98.89, the May 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions. Support to watch lies at 97.50, a trendline. A break would undermine the bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 115.67 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures traded lower yesterday. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high, confirmed the end of the correction between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low. The contract did also rebound from the Jun 11 low. Initial key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. First resistance is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5017.00/39.84 High Jun 26 / 61.8% of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off
• PRICE: 4950.00 @ 06:26 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The recovery from the Jun 14 low appears to be an early reversal signal highlighting the end of the May 16 - Jun 14 correction. Attention is on 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would be a positive development. For bears, a reversal lower would signal a resumption of the bearish corrective cycle. This would open 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 5561.50 @ 07:24 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 5480.29/5386.53 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and signals remain bullish with price trading closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is 5480.29, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $86.33 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $85.78 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $84.74 @ 07:03 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $82.79 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain in a bull-mode condition and the contract is trading higher today. Recent gains resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at $84.25, the May 29 high. This undermines a bearish theme and instead signals scope for a bullish continuation near-term. Sights are on $86.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $82.79, the 50-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Heading North

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.24 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $82.80 - High Apr 26
• PRICE: $82.26 @ 07:20 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $78.76 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract is trading higher today. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break would open $85.24, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $78.76, the 50-day EMA. A break would be seen as a potential reversal signal.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2326.7 @ 07:23 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

A bear threat in Gold remains present and the yellow metal continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.1. A clear break of this EMA would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Support

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21
• PRICE: $29.236 @ 08:07 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Support in Silver at $28.659, the Jun 13 low and bear trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, the May 13 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a medium-term uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high.