MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish GBP Theme Builds
Price Signal Summary – Bullish GBP Theme Builds
- The latest move down in S&P E-Minis appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low, that was pierced on Tuesday. The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
- The current bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact, with the pair building on its recent gains. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains in place and note that moving average studies have crossed into a bull-mode position. USDJPY bears have paused for breath. The trend needle points south and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Note that support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced.AUDUSD has traded lower this week. The latest pullback appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6316. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- Despite a pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures are holding on to this week’s gains. Recent gains still appear corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract has traded higher this week and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0467 @ 06:09 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 1.0438/01 50-day EMA / Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.0373 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
- SUP 4: 1.0280 Low Feb 10 and a key support
Short-term bullish conditions in EURUSD remain intact and attention is on a key resistance at 1.0533, the Jan 27 high and a reversal trigger. A clear breach of this level would strengthen a bullish condition and pave the way for a climb towards 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. For bears, initial firm support to watch is unchanged at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. A breach of this support would signal a potential reversal threat.
GBPUSD TECHS: Moving Average Bullish Crossover
- RES 4: 1.2877 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 1.2657 @ 06:27 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 1.2606 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 1.2534 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
The current bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact, with the pair building on its recent gains. A positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains in place and note that moving average studies have crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. An extension would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2534, the 50-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8332 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8315 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8270 @ 06:37 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 0.8265/8248 Low Feb 21 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded lower Wednesday and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent lows. A resumption of bearish price action would expose the key short-term support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish condition. Note that the early February bounce continues to highlight a possible reversal. Clearance of 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key S/T pivot level, would be a positive development for bulls.
USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 153.20 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.75 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 150.30 High Feb 25
- PRICE: 149.27 @ 07:01 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 147.68 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
USDJPY bears have paused for breath. The trend needle points south and the pair is trading at its recent lows. Note that support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 151.75, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 159.95 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 158.40 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.28 @ 07:17 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 155.82/155.61 Low Feb 21 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is in consolidation mode and continues to trade at its recent lows. Key short-term support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, remains exposed. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish break and set the scene for an extension towards 155.15, the Sep 16 ‘24 low, and 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low and a key medium-term bear trigger. Initial firm resistance to watch is 158.40, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.95, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6409 High Feb 21
- PRICE: 0.6298 @ 07:59 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 0.6286/6231 Intraday low / Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD has traded lower this week. The latest pullback appears corrective, however, the pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6316. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6231, the Feb 10 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6397/14 - the 100-dma and 38.2% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg respectively.
USDCAD TECHS: Correction Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.4641 76.4%retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4472 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4337 @ 08:07 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 1.4240 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction that started Feb 14 remains in play for now. Resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal, and open 1.4472, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. A move through this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and expose 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Tests Resistance
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24
- RES 2: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 132.97 High Feb 13 / 26 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 132.83 @ 05:50 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 131.83/26 Low Feb 24 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
Bund futures are holding on to this week’s gains. Recent gains still appear corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal and expose 133.71, the Feb 5 high. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this support would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Holding On To This Week’s Gains
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 117.740 High Feb 25
- PRICE: 117.430 @ 06:02 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 117.240/116.870 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a S/T bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract is holding on to this week’s gains. Price has cleared resistance at 117.600. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead, the move higher exposes resistance at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 116.870, the Feb 19 low. A break of this level is required to resume a bear cycle.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 106.975 High Feb 10
- RES 1: 106.895 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 106.880 @ 06:13 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 106.755/630 Low Feb 24/20 and a key near term support
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle that started on Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. A continuation of the latest recovery would open 106.975, the Feb 10 high, ahead of the next key resistance at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would instead expose the key short-term support that has been defined at 106.630, the Feb 20 low.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 93.51 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 93.16 @ Close Feb 26
- SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24
- SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract has traded higher this week and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, Feb 20 low. A breach of it would strengthen a bear threat.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.62 Intraday high
- PRICE: 120.44 @ 08:01 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Attention is on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the current bull cycle. Initial firm support lies at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Continues To Point North
- RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5588.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 1: 5555.00 All-time high (cont), Feb 18
- PRICE: 5515.00 @ 06:38 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 5393.82 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5249.76 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5407.46, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 6205.38 0.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 24 - Feb 3 price swing
- RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 1: 6060.01/6166.50 20-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6001.00 @ 07:43 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 5924.00 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
The latest move down in S&P E-Minis appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low, that was pierced on Tuesday. A clear break of it would allow for a deeper retracement. MA studies are in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: $82.86 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: $80.09 - High Jul 18 ‘24
- RES 2: $76.26/78.96 - High Feb 20 / 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $74.26 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $71.66 @ 07:14 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: $71.50 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $70.72 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $69.96 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.55 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures have traded lower this week. The move down has resulted in a clear break of support at $72.96, the Feb 4 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move towards $70.72, the Dec 20 low. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $76.26, the Feb 20 high.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Heading South
- RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.38/74.06 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.64 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: $6836 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, the Feb 3 high.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Theme
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2980.7 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2956.2 - High Feb 24
- PRICE: $2892.7 @ 07:29 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: $2882.6 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2834.3 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 3: $2799.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
Despite a pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Recent fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2882.6, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Tests Support Around The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $31.743 @ 08:10 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: $31.290 - Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded sharply lower Tuesday and in the process breached the 20-day EMA and pierced $31.414, the 50-day EMA. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.