MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Extend Recent Pullback

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Extend Recent Pullback

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last Friday’s gains reinforce a bullish condition. The contract has pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, this week’s corrective pullback remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4339.10.
• EURUSD is trading lower and is testing support at last 1.0835, the Jun 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, the move lower highlights a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0858, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and this week’s continuation lower reinforces a bearish theme. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high. A break of this level is required to resume the recent uptrend and signal scope for a stronger correction towards 0.8719. The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared support at the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6562.
• The trend condition in Gold is bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. Fresh lows last week reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is $72.72, the Jun 21 high. A break would expose $75.70, the Jun 5 high, where a break is required to signal a reversal.
• Bund futures remain soft and the contract is trading lower again today. This marks an extension of the pullback from 135.00, the Jun 27 low. A continuation lower signals scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. Gilt futures remain soft following the recent move lower with price trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. The contract weakened again yesterday, reinforcing bearish conditions and the focus is on key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 2: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0934 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 1.0841 @ 05:54 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.0824/04 50.0% of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0779 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally
• SUP 3: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 1.0724 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally

EURUSD is trading lower and is testing support at last 1.0835, the Jun 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, the move lower highlights a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.0858, signalling scope for a deeper retracement. This has opened 1.0804, the Jun 15 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.0934, the Jul 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Support Stays Intact

• RES 4: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 2: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2760 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.2704 @ 06:10 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 1.2569 50-day EMA and trendline drawn from the Mar 8 low
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

GBPUSD is unchanged and continues to consolidate. 1.2591, the Jun 29 low and a key support, remains intact. The recovery on Jun 30 could be an early reversal signal that suggests the recent corrective pullback is over. Resistance to watch is 1.2760, Jun 27 high. A break would expose key resistance at 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection. For bears, a break of 1.2591 would resume the recent downtrend and expose the 50-day EMA at 1.2569.

EURGBP TECHS: Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8619/58 High Jun 30 / 28 and a short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8590 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8532 @ 06:27 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8502 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and this week’s continuation lower reinforces a bearish theme. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high. A break of this level is required to resume the recent uptrend and signal scope for a stronger correction towards 0.8719, the May 23 high. The focus is on the bear trigger at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 147.06 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 2: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 145.07 High Jun 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.74 @ 06:41 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 142.73 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 142.14 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 3: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 4: 139.85 Low Jun 16

USDJPY is trading lower and has breached Monday’s 143.99 low. The primary trend direction remains up and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Support to watch is 142.73, the 20-day EMA and 142.14, the former bull channel top. A break of 142.14 would signal scope for a deeper correction. The bull trigger has been defined at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. A break would resume the uptrend and open 145.66, a Fibonacci projection.

EURJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode

• RES 4: 160.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 157.04/158.00 Intraday high / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 155.87 @ 06:50 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 155.28/06 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 154.05 Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 152.09 50-day EMA

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest move lower is likely a correction. This corrective phase is allowing an overbought trend condition to unwind and attention is on the next support at 155.28, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 152.09. For bulls, clearance of 158.00, the Jun 28 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6857 High Jun 20
• RES 3:0.6768 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 0.6806 High Jun 22
• RES 1: 0.6721/0.6736 High Jun 27 / 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• PRICE: 0.6669 @ 07:23 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared support at the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6721, the Jun 27 high. Clearance of this level would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.3462 High Jun 5
• RES 3: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.3362 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3306 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3288@ 08:00 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 1.3190/3117 Low Jun 28 / 27 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022

USDCAD has traded higher and managed to push through resistance at the 20-day EMA. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction and the trend is bearish. Looking at MA studies, they remain in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.3117, the Jun 27 low and bear trigger. On the upside, an extension higher would expose the next important resistance at 1.3362, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 2: 134.14/135.00 High Jul 3 / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 133.64 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.44 @ 05:19 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 132.34 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain soft and the contract is trading lower again today. This marks an extension of the pullback from 135.00, the Jun 27 low. A continuation lower signals scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. A break would open 131.89, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 134.14, Monday’s high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Heading South

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 115.946/450 20-day EMA / High Jun 26
• PRICE: 115.280 @ 05:22 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 115.240 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below 116.450, the Jun 29 high. The trend outlook remains bearish and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Support at 115.320, the Jun 26 low has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend and the focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 116.450, the Jun 26 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.041 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.915 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 104.765 @ 05:44 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 104.705 Low Jul 3
• SUP 2: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 3: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The move down earlier this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.695 next, the Mar 10 low (cont). Initial firm resistance to watch is at 105.041, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 2: 96.34/97.00 High Jun 27 / 23
• RES 1: 95.52 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 94.33 @ Close Jul 5
• SUP 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Gilt futures remain soft following the recent move lower with price trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. The contract weakened again yesterday, reinforcing bearish conditions and the focus is on key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. On the upside, a fresh recovery would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. 97.00 is the bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 95.52, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.10/60 High Jun 29 / 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 116.52 High Jul 3
• PRICE: 115.36 @ Close Jul 6
• SUP 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures remain soft following this week’s move lower and attention is on support at 114.61, the Jun 15 low. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a deeper pullback and expose 113.83, the Jun 8 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 116.52, Monday’s high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 117.60, the Jun 26 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 4501.60 1.618 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4413.00/4448.00 High Jul 5 / High Jan 2008 (cont)
• PRICE: 4351.00 @ 06:02 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 4339.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4262.00 Low Jun 26
• SUP 3: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4200.00 Round number support

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact, however, this week’s corrective pullback remains in play and price has traded through the 20-day EMA. Attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4339.10. A break of the 50-day EMA would expose 4241.00, the May 31 low and bear trigger. Clearance of resistance at 4448.00, the Jan 2008 high (cont) would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4552.12 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4498.00 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 4456.50 @ 06:51 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: 4405.73/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4316.55 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4269.50 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 4216.00 Low May 31

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Last Friday’s gains reinforce a bullish condition. The contract has pierced key resistance and the bull trigger at 4493.75, the Jun 16 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 4532.08, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch is 4405.73, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $84.02 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.00 - High Apr 24 / 25
• RES 2: $79.61 - High Apr 12
• RES 1: $77.25/78.47 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.32 @ 06:55 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.00 - Low May 4
• SUP 3: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

A short-term bullish theme in Brent futures remains in play, however, recent gains are considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is $77.25, the Jun 21 high. A break of $78.47, the Jun 5 high, is required to alter the picture and signal a reversal. A resumption of weakness would open $71.00, the May 4 low, ahead of $69.95, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $71.63 @ 07:01 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains still appear to be a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is $72.72, the Jun 21 high. A break would expose $75.70, the Jun 5 high, where a break is required to signal a reversal. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, was pierced last week, a clear break of this level would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 2: 1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1931.4/1947.4 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1919.9 @ 07:18 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $1893.1 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

The trend condition in Gold is bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. Fresh lows last week reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies are in a bear mode position highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1931.4, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.480/24.530 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 9 and key resistance
• PRICE: $23.215 @ 08:07 BST Jul 6
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent Silver gains still appear to be a correction. The continuation higher this week has exposed resistance at $23.480, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement with key resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.