MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Maintain a Firmer Short-Term Tone

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Maintain a Firmer Short-Term Tone

• S&P e-minis traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note and confirming an extension of the recovery that started Oct 27. Recent gains have resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development. Note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 4256.00.
• A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and this week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 1.2506, the Nov 14 high has been cleared. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. USDJPY has traded lower today as the pair extends the corrective pullback from 151.91, the Nov 13 high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 149.16, has been cleared. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone and the pair is trading higher once again today. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend cycle. A stronger resumption of gains would open $2022.20, May 15 high. The bull trigger is at $2009.4. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The break lower last week marks an extension of the downtrend that started late September and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 4. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and last week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next, the May 22 high on the continuation chart, and potentially 99.26.

EURUSD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11 and 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.0965 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.0959 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair continues to appreciate. Recent strong gains reinforce the current positive technical picture and the focus is on 1.1005, the Aug 11 high and 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. Moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Support lies at 1.0825, the Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2643 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 1.2608 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2589 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2540 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2527 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.2374/23274 Low Nov 17 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.2138 Low Nov 2

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and this week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 1.2506, the Nov 14 high has been cleared The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.2589, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support has been defined at 1.2374, the Nov 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• PRICE: 0.8746 @ 06:14 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 0.8716 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8683/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday. Resistance at 0.8754, Oct 31 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Firm support is at 0.8683, the 50-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 1: 149.16 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.67 @ 06:37 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 147.25 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 146.00 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY has traded lower today as the pair extends the corrective pullback from 151.91, the Nov 13 high. Support at the 50-day EMA, at 149.16, has been cleared. This strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction, towards 146.00, a trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 163.56/164.30 High Nov 20 / 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 161.70 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 161.35 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 159.63 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact, however, the cross has entered a corrective cycle and this has resulted in a pullback from recent highs. The cross is approaching the 20-day EMA - at 161.35. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 159.63. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 164.30, the Nov 16 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6656 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6644 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6616 High Oct 8
• PRICE: 0.6570 @ 07:54 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 0.6426/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone and the pair is trading higher once again today. The latest rally has resulted in a clear break of former resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. The breach is an important short-term bullish development and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term towards 0.6616 next, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm support is at 0.6426, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4030 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3722 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 1.3678 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3635/29 Trendline drawn from the Jul 14 low / Low Nov 6
• SUP 3: 1.3591 38.2% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD is trading above last Wednesday’s 1.3655 low and above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3678. The trend outlook is bullish and short-term weakness - for now - appears to be a correction. Moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the bull trigger at 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. Key support lies at 1.3629, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 131.10 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 130.36/129.83 Low Nov 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently breached resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. A breach of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.230 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 116.690 @ 05:31 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 116.437/000 20-day EMA / Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the pullback from Friday’s high is considered corrective. Last week’s rally signals a resumption of the uptrend and resistance at 116.940, the Nov 3 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle paves the way for a climb towards 117.610, the Sep 1 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.437, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 116.00, the Nov 3 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 105.265 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 105.045 @ 05:38 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 104.925 Low Nov 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone despite the latest pullback from 105.265, the Nov 17 high. A bullish engulfing candle was confirmed on Nov 14. If correct, the pattern continues to signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a breach of 104.925, the Nov 14 low, would instead reinstate a bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• RES 3: 99.26 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 98.98 High May 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 97.99 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 97.03 @ Close Nov 21
• SUP 1: 95.93 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 94.58/94.61 Low Nov 13 and a key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 93.44 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 92.63 Low Nov 1

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and last week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next, the May 22 high on the continuation chart, and potentially 99.26, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont). On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 113.99 @ Close Nov 21
• SUP 1: 113.07/111.62 Low Nov 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19. Potential exists for a climb towards 115.56, the Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 111.62, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Heading North

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• RES 1: 4366.00 High Nov 20
• PRICE: 4359.00 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4228.90/4143.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 3: 4063.00 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 4001.00 Low Oct 27 and bear trigger

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract continues to appreciate. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development. Note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, reinforcing the bullish theme The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4228.90, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4571.00 High Nov 20
• PRICE: 4562.00 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4415.80 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 4257.75 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 4122.25 Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger

S&P e-minis traded higher Monday, starting the week on a bullish note and confirming an extension of the recovery that started Oct 27. Recent gains have resulted in a break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4415.80, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $81.72 @ 06:58 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions, maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. The recent break lower paves the way for a move towards $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would further reinforce the bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $80.75 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $78.81 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $77.21 @ 07:07 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The break lower last week marks an extension of the downtrend that started late September and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting bearish market sentiment. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Nov 7 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1991.6 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $1943.4/1908.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 16
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and key support

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend cycle. A stronger resumption of gains would open $2022.20, May 15 high. The bull trigger is at $2009.4, the Oct 27 high. Note that support at the 50-day EMA, at $1944.7, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would undermine the bullish theme and expose $1908.3, Oct 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $24.146 - High Nov 17
• PRICE: $23.722 @ 08:05 GMT Nov 21
• SUP 1: $22.930 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains have reinforced the bullish theme. The metal has cleared resistance at $23.774, the Sep 22 high and has pierced the $24.00 handle. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.014, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, initial support lies at $22.930, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at $21.883.