MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures North of Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures North of Key Resistance

• S&P e-minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average - a key short-term pivot level - has strengthened bullish conditions. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the correction from recent lows extends. Price has traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The broader trend condition is bearish.
• Recent gains in GBPUSD resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2289, the Oct 24 high as well as key resistance at 1.2337, the Oct 11 high. These gains strengthen the bullish case and signal scope for a stronger short-term bull cycle. The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north. Support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.54 - remains intact and a break of this average is required to signal a short-term top. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of 150.78, the Oct 26 high. USDCAD traded sharply lower last week but has managed to find support this week at Monday’s 1.3629 low. The recovery means a support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3646, stays intact and this suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 has been a correction.
• The uptrend in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded lower again yesterday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The breach highlights a stronger short-term reversal.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer tone - for now - and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen current bullish conditions. Gilt futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point.

EURUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0756 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.0686 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.0657 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0621 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13
• SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger

The current bullish condition in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s rally resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.0694, the Oct 24 high. This strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger short-term correction. Attention is on 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 1.0517, the Nov 1 low, a break would be bearish. Initial support is 1.0657, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2459 38.2% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2435 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2428 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.2275 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.2276 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 1.2225/1.2070 20-day EMA / Low Oct 26
• SUP 3: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support

Recent gains in GBPUSD resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2289, the Oct 24 high as well as key resistance at 1.2337, the Oct 11 high. These gains strengthen the bullish case and signal scope for a stronger short-term bull cycle. Sights are on the 200-dma at 1.2435 and 1.2459, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.2225, the 20-day EMA. This week’s pullback appears to be a correction.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8722/8754 High Nov 3 / Oct 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8705 @ 06:25 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.8661/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and the recovery from Monday’s low is a positive development. Support at 0.8661, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break is required to strengthen a bearish condition and signal scope for deeper retracement. This would open 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. For bulls, a break of 0.8754, the Oct 31 high, would resume the uptrend and open 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.72 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 150.68 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 149.21 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 148.81/148.54 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 146.44 Low Sep 12

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north. Support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.54 - remains intact and a break of this average is required to signal a short-term top. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of 150.78, the Oct 26 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 152.20, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment.

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 161.05 Intraday high
• PRICE: 160.96 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 159.18/158.27 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 3: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: 155.83 Low Oct 4

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross has again traded to a fresh cycle high today. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 161.52, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 158.27, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top and the start of a correction.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6586 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6522/23 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 / Nov 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6443 @ 07:54 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.6393 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD traded lower Tuesday, extending the pullback from Monday’s 0.6523 high. Despite this week’s sell-off, a short-term bull cycle remains in play. The pair recently breached the 50-day EMA and this has exposed key resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.6582, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 0.6393, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Monday’s Low

• RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4065 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3772 @ 08:00 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.3646/29 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 1.3582 Trendline support drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD traded sharply lower last week but has managed to find support this week at Monday’s 1.3629 low. The recovery means a support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3646, stays intact and this suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 has been a correction. The trend is up and MA studies are in a bull-mode position. The bull trigger is 1.3899, Nov 1 high. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would be bearish and expose trendline support at 1.3582.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 131.82 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 131.49 HIgh Sep 14
• RES 2: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 130.76 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 130.45 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 129.17 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.31/ 127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 3: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone - for now - and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen current bullish conditions. This would open 131.33, 76.4% of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg. Firm support to watch is 128.31, the Oct 27 low. A breach would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.940 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 116.710 @ 05:21 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 116.161 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A corrective cycle in Bobl futures is still in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high, has been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 116.966, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 bear leg. The 20-day EMA, at 116.161, is the first key support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.335 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 105.210 @ 05:23 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 105.085 Low Nov 6 / 7
• SUP 2: 104.940/765 Low Oct 26 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

The broader trend outlook in Schatz futures is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. However, the contract did pierce resistance last week at 105.320, the Oct 10 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the short-term bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. This would open 105.372, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 104.940, the Oct 26 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 96.71 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 96.37 High Sep 22
• RES 2: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 1: 95.66 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 95.47 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 93.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 93.67/92.63 20-day EMA / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 4: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support

Gilt futures maintain a firmer short-term tone and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point. The continuation higher signals scope for a test of resistance at 95.66, the Oct 12 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case. Initial firm support to watch is 92.63, the Nov 1 low. A break would be a bearish development.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 114.01 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 112.76 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 112.23 @ Close Nov 7
• SUP 1: 110.93/110.42 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded higher last week and a corrective bull cycle remains in play - for now - with price trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has breached 111.17, Oct 12 high. This has strengthened current conditions and exposes 113.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.42, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a possible reversal. This would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Correction Still In Play

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4210.00 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 4153.00 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 4133.10/4001.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week as the correction from recent lows extends. Price has traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The broader trend condition is bearish, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, at 4183.40, would signal scope for a stronger bull cycle and open 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 4001.0, the Oct 27 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 4538.88 High Sep 20
• RES 3: 4442.25 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 2: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4403.25 High Nov 7
• PRICE: 4388.75 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 4257.75/4122.25 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

S&P e-minis traded higher last week and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average - a key short-term pivot level - has strengthened bullish conditions. Sights are on 4430.50, the Oct 12 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4122.25, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 1: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• PRICE: $81.77 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $81.02 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.21 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded sharply lower Tuesday. The sell-off resulted in a break of support at $82.20, the Oct 6 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the current bear cycle and exposes $81.02, the Aug 24 low. A break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards $78.89, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $87.80, the Nov 3 high.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $85.90 - High Oct 27
• RES 1: $83.60 - High Nov 3 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $77.27 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $76.51 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.12 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $69.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the contract traded lower again yesterday. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The breach highlights a stronger short-term reversal and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $74.26, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.60.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1966.9 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $1956.8 - Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: $1936.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9

The uptrend in Gold remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1936.6, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.526 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: $22.371 - Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the recent consolidation appears to be sideways correction. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.371, the Oct 17 low.