MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Head South

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Head South

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis recovered yesterday but it remains too early to determine whether a move higher is a correction or the start of a recovery that resumes the uptrend. Attention remains on the key 50-day EMA at 4412.43. This average is an important support. Key resistance is unchanged at 4539.50, Sep 3 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains above 4132.50, Sep 9 low. A break of this support would expose 4078.00, Aug 19 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 4252.00, Sep 6 high.
• In FX, EURUSD's sell-off yesterday confirmed a resumption of bearish pressure. The pair has cleared Monday's low of 1.1770 resulting in a print below 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Further weakness would open 1.1735, Aug 27 low. Recent activity in GBPUSD has defined short-term directional parameters at; 1.3913 as resistance, Sep 14 high and support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. A clear breach of either level would provide a clearer directional signal. The USD Index (DXY) has established a short-term support at 92.32, Sep 14 low. Technical conditions suggest scope for gains near-term.
• On the commodity front, Gold sold off sharply yesterday and the near-term outlook remains bearish. The focus is on $1724.5, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook. The contract has this week cleared $71.30, the bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high. This reinforces current bullish conditions and opens the primary resistance and bull trigger at $74.77, Jul 7 high.
• In FI, Bund futures continue to weaken. This has opened 170.82 next, 2.764 projection of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing. Gilt futures are softer too and signal scope for an extension of the current bear cycle. The focus is on 127.09 1.764 projection of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing and 127.00 appears exposed.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Pressure Returns

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1953 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 1.1774 @ 06:00 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 1.1750/35 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 27
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and Thursday's sell-off has confirmed a resumption of bearish pressure. The pair has cleared Monday's low of 1.1770 resulting in a print below 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Further weakness would open 1.1735, Aug 27 low ahead of the key support at 1.1664, the Aug 20 low. A break of 1.1664 would strengthen a medium-term bearish case. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.1846, Sep 14 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3807 @ 06:06 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Sep 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD remains below this week's high. Recent activity has defined key short-term resistance at 1.3913, Sep 14 high where a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend. This would open 1.3958, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. A break would be bearish and signal a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since early June.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8563 High Sep 15
• PRICE: 0.8527 @ 06:14 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 0.8501/02 Low Sep 16 / 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally
• SUP 2: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 3: 0.8470 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

EURGBP conditions remain bearish. A key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared on Sep 9 and yesterday the cross probed 0.8506, the Aug 19 low. A continuation lower would open 0.8484, Aug 16 low ahead of 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger. A break of 0.8450 would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend. For bulls, the key short-term resistance is at 0.8614, Sep 7 high. Initial resistance is at 0.8563.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Holds

• RES 4: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 110.16 High Sep 13
• PRICE: 109.87 @ 06:18 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 109.11 Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is trading modestly higher, but remains fragile after the recent sell-off. However, support at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low needs to give way to reinforce a bearish theme. A breach of this support would expose the 108.72, Aug 4 low. Clearance of this level would open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement and below. For bulls, the level to breaks remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 131.09/19 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 130.75 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.69 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 129.36 @ 06:23 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 128.60 Low Aug 24 and 76.4% of the Aug 19 - sep 3 rally
• SUP 2: 128.16 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally

EURJPY traded lower Thursday to maintain a weaker tone as the cross extends the sell-off that started Sep 3. 129.01, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally has been breached. The focus is on 128.60, the 76.4% retracement and recent weakness signals scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 130.20, Sep 14 high. Key resistance is at 130.75, Sep 3 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Correction Extends

• RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 0.7410/78 High Sep 10 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7303 @ 06:34 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 0.7274 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 0.7248 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD traded lower again yesterday, extending the corrective pullback from 0.7478, Sep 3 high. The pair has breached its 20-day EMA and a deeper pullback would open 0.7248, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, 0.7478, Sep 3 high, marks the trigger for a resumption of the upleg that started Aug 20. A break would open the 0.7499/7503 resistance zone and establish a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

USDCAD TECHS: Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2762 High Sep 8
• PRICE: 1.2667 @ 06:40 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD is consolidating. The pair continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is unchanged at 1.2762, Sep 8 high where a break would open 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Moving average conditions are in bull mode and this reinforces a bullish theme. On the downside, clearance of 1.2494 would highlight a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 2: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 1: 172.12 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 171.08 @ 09:58 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 170.98 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 170.82 2.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 170.52 3.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 170.22 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing

Bund futures continue their slide and are trading lower again today. A bearish theme follows the recent move through 172.00. The break lower this week confirms a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 170.82 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.12, Sep 14 high. A break would ease the current bearish sentiment.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Trend Lows

• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
• RES 4: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.550 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 135.230 @ 09:59 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 135.200 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.077 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.030 2.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish and the contract traded lower yesterday and again today. This once again confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 135.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.550, Sep 14 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure.SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 112.225 @ 05:38 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday and the outlook remains bearish. The recent move lower to 112.215, on Sep 9 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further downside is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 112.270, Sep 9 and 10 high. The bear trigger is 112.215.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Extension Lower

• RES 4: 129.05 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 128.77 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 1: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 127.38 @ Close Sep 16
• SUP 1: 127.15 Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: 127.09 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.91 Low Jun 17 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.83 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower yesterday confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle. The outlook remains bearish with a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs intact. The focus is on 127.09 next, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 127.00 handle. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.18, Sep 10 and 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.63 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 154.07 @ Close Sep 16
• SUP 1: 153.56 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish despite the recent bounce on Sep 9. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that signals potential for a continuation lower remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, further gains would open resistance at 155.14, the Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) In A Range

• RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4272.53 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4215.50/52.00 Intraday high / High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4194.50 @ 05:49 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 4132.50 Low Sep 9
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a range. The contract traded to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 on Sep 6 that reinforced the primary uptrend. This opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing. Price has however since retreated and a corrective phase is playing out. Attention remains on 4138.50, Aug 26 low. It has been probed, a clear break would open 4078.00, Aug 19 low and key support. 4132.50 is the S/T bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Holding Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4467.50 @ 06:50 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 4425.25 Low Sep 15
• SUP 2: 4412.43 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis recovered again yesterday from session lows. Despite the support, it remains too early to determine whether gains are a correction or the start of a recovery that resumes the uptrend. Attention is on the key 50-day EMA at 4412.43. This average is an important support. If breached, a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback near-term. Key resistance is unchanged at 4539.50, Sep 3 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Heading North

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $76.74 - 0.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $75.46 @ 06:44 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $72.47/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures traded higher Wednesday and in the process breached the Jul 6 high of $75.87. This confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and strengthens a bullish case following this week's bear channel breakout. The channel was drawn off the Jul 6 high. The focus is on $76.74 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Bullish Following Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: $76.43 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $73.14/52 - High Sep 15 / High Jul 30
• PRICE: $72.43 @ 06:51 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $69.49 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and the contract rallied Wednesday. This has resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for further short-term gains. The focus is on $73.52 next, Jul 30 high ahead of the primary resistance and bull trigger at $74.77, Jul 7 high. Key support has been defined at $67.56, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1781.8 - Low Sep 14
• PRICE: $1763.2 @ 07:09 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $1745.3 - Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded sharply lower yesterday. The move lower resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally . Further out, a deeper decline would open the key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1808.7, Sep 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Tests The August Low

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep3
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $23.910 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.957 @ 07:22 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $22.604 - Low Sep 16
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains bearish following yesterday's sharp losses that resulted in a print below support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. A bearish theme was recently reinforced following the failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. Yesterday's sell-off confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on $21.899 next, the Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.