MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Crack of Support Highlights Stronger Reversal for Crude

Price Signal Summary – Crack of Support Highlights Stronger Reversal for Crude

• S&P e-minis maintains a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading higher today. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average - a key short-term pivot level. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday, resuming the current uptrend. Price has recently traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Despite this week’s move lower, a short-term bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The rally on Nov 3 reinforced a bullish theme - a candlestick pattern known as a standard line was confirmed at the close. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to this week's gains. Key short-term support lies at the 50-day EMA - at 148.74. A break of this average is required to signal a short-term top. The recent breach of 150.78, the Oct 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. AUDUSD remains below Monday’s 0.6523 high and the pair has traded lower today. Despite the latest pullback, a S/T bull cycle remains in play and the move down appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6522.
• The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open $2022.20 next. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the contract has traded sharply lower this week. The move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The breach highlights a stronger short-term reversal and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $74.26.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer tone despite today’s gap lower at the open. The recent breach of a key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger, strengthens current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term high yesterday. Price recently cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above 95.66.

EURUSD TECHS: Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0756 High Nov 6
• PRICE: 1.0669 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.0659 50- day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0633 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13
• SUP 4: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and this week’s pullback appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.0694, the Oct 24 high, strengthens a bullish case and signals scope for a stronger short-term correction. This has opened 1.0764, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 1.0517, the Nov 1 low, a break would be bearish. Initial support is 1.0659, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 1.2459 38.2% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2435 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2309/1.2428 High Nov 9 / 6
• PRICE: 1.2226 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.2180 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 1.2070 Low Oct 26
• SUP 3: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support

Despite this week’s move lower, a short-term bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The rally on Nov 3 reinforced a bullish theme - a candlestick pattern known as a standard line was confirmed at the close. This is a bullish continuation signal. The move higher suggests scope for a climb towards the 200-dma at 1.2435 and 1.2459, a Fibonacci retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.2185, the Nov 3 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8754 High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8726 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.8666/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

The trend condition in EURGBP is bullish and this week’s recovery from Monday’s low is a positive development. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a rising trend. Note too that support at 0.8666, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for deeper retracement. This would open 0.8616, Oct 11 low. For bulls, clearance of 0.8754, Oct 31 high, would resume the uptrend.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.72 High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.38 @ 06:43 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 149.21 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 148.81/148.74 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 146.44 Low Sep 12

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is holding on to this week's gains. Key short-term support lies at the 50-day EMA - at 148.74. A break of this average is required to signal a short-term top. The recent breach of 150.78, the Oct 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 152.20, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment.

EURJPY TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: 163.10 High Aug 22 2008
• RES 3: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 161.80 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 161.47 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 159.62/158.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 3: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 4: 155.83 Low Oct 4

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the cross is trading at its recent highs. Continued gains reinforce bullish conditions and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 162.80, a Fibonacci projection, marks the next objective. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 158.52, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top. Initial support is at 159.62, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: This Week’s Bear Leg Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.6600 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.6582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6522/23 High Aug 30 and Sep 1 / Nov 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6449 High Nov 8
• PRICE: 0.6358 @ 07:24 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.6330 76.4% retracement of the Oct 26 - Nov 6 rally
• SUP 2: 0.6315/0.6270 Low Oct 31 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

AUDUSD remains below Monday’s 0.6523 high and the pair has traded lower today. Despite the latest pullback, a S/T bull cycle remains in play and the move down appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and open 0.6582, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key support lies at 0.6270, the Oct 26 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.129 1.382 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4067 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3798 @ 07:37 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.3658/29 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 2: 1.3594 Trendline support drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 3: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD managed to find support this week at Monday’s 1.3629 low and is holding on to its latest gains. The trend is up and moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. Support around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3658, has remained intact and this suggests the move lower between Nov 1 - 6 has been a correction. Sights are on the bull trigger at 1.3899, Nov 1 high. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would be a bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 131.82 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 131.49 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 1: 130.93 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 129.90 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 129.43 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 3: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone despite today’s gap lower at the open. The recent breach of a key resistance at 130.20, the Oct 12 high and a bull trigger, strengthens current bullish conditions and maintains a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 131.33, 76.4% of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 low. A breach would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.940 High Nov 3
• PRICE: 116400 @ 05:41 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 116.244 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A corrective bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the contract is consolidating closer to its recent highs. Key short-term resistance at 116.500, the Oct 10 high, has recently been cleared and this signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Scope is seen for a move towards 116.966, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 bear leg. The 20-day EMA, at 116.244, is the first key support.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 3: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 1: 105.220/335 High Nov 6 and 8 / High Nov 2
• PRICE: 105.085 @ 06:01 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 105.035 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 104.940/765 Low Oct 26 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

The broader trend outlook in Schatz futures is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the contract recently pierced resistance at 105.320, the Oct 10 high. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the short-term bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle. This would open 105.372, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm support is at 104.940, the Oct 26 low. A break would be bearish.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 96.71 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 96.37 High Sep 22
• RES 1: 96.14 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 95.57 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 95.34/94.03 Low Nov 9 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 92.63 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 4: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded to a fresh short-term high yesterday. Price recently cleared 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg and 94.52, the 76.4% retracement point. This week’s gains have resulted in a print above 95.66, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and open 96.71, the Sep 20 high. Firm support to watch is 92.63, Nov 1 low. First support is 94.03, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Continues To Appreciate

• RES 4: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 114.01 High Sep 8
• RES 2: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 113.00 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 112.65 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 111.07/110.83 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play - for now - with price continuing to appreciate. The contract has recently breached 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This has strengthened current conditions and exposes 113.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.83, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a possible reversal. This would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bull Leg Extends

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4329.80 61.8% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 4210.00 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 4148.30/4001.00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract traded higher Thursday, resuming the current uptrend. Price has recently traded through resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4185.90, signals scope for a stronger bull cycle and opens 4256.00, the Oct 12 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at 4001.0, the Oct 27 low.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15
• RES 3: 4508.00 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 4435.50 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 1: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• PRICE: 4410.50 @ 14:27 GMT Nov 9
• SUP 1: 4257.75/4122.25 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

S&P e-minis maintains a firmer short-term tone and the contract is trading higher today. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break of the 50-day average - a key short-term pivot level - has strengthened bullish conditions. Sights are on 4430.50, the Oct 12 high and 4435.50, trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 4122.25, the Oct 27 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 1: $82.20/87.80 - Low Oct 6 / High Nov 3 and key S/T resistance
• PRICE: $80.40 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $79.20 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.21 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures have traded sharply lower this week and the contract is trading at this week’s low. The latest sell-off has resulted in a break of support at $82.20, Oct 6 low and a bear trigger. This strengthens the current bear cycle and exposes $78.89 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would pave the way for an extension towards $77.21, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $87.80, the Nov 3 high.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.85 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $85.90 - High Oct 27
• RES 1: $80.20/83.60 - Low Oct 6 / High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $76.05 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $74.91 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.12 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $69.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and the contract has traded sharply lower this week. The move down has resulted in a break of support at $80.20, the Oct 6 low. The breach highlights a stronger short-term reversal and a continuation lower would pave the way for a move towards $74.26, the 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $83.60.

GOLD TECHS: Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1955.4 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $1938.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and key support

The latest pullback in Gold appears to be a correction - for now - and the trend condition remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. A resumption of gains would open $2022.20 next, the May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1938.1, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and the potential for a deeper retracement.

SILVER TECHS: Flat Correction

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.664 @ 07:53 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $21.573 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the recent consolidation appears to be a flat correction. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $21.573, the Oct 9 low.77