MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Deeper Retracement Would Develop Bearish Threat for Bunds

Price Signal Summary – Deeper Retracement Would Develop Bearish Threat for Bunds

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish, however, the move lower yesterday highlights a corrective cycle that suggests potential for a bearish extension. The contract has breached bull channel support - at 5282.02 - drawn from the Jan 17 low. A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Yesterday’s fresh cycle highs confirms once again an extension of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Monday’s breach of 1.2575, the Mar 22 low, paves the way for a test of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. USDJPY is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27.
• A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s move higher reinforces current conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal has traded to fresh all-time highs once again this week. The climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday. A deeper retracement would highlight a developing bearish threat once again and the end of the recent corrective phase between Mar 18 - 27. The bear trigger lies at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Gilt futures have not managed to hold on to their recent gains. Instead, the gap lower yesterday and the subsequent sell-off, highlights a developing bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key short-term support at 98.05.

EURUSD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 1.0981 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 1: 1.0831/0864 20-day EMA / High Mar 26
• PRICE: 1.0778 @ 05:54 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.0695 Low Feb 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23

EURUSD maintains a softer tone and for now, short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down this week reinforces a bearish theme and attention is on key support at 1.0695, the Feb 14 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started on Dec 28. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0831. A move above this average is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 3: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2659/2803 20-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 1.2581 @ 06:13 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2465, 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Nov 20 ‘23

A bearish threat in GBPUSD remains present and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Monday’s breach of 1.2575, the Mar 22 low, paves the way for a test of 1.2519, the Feb 5 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme and open 1.2465, a Fibonacci retracement. First resistance is 1.2659, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.8678 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8607 23.6% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8575/8602 High Apr 02 / 22
• PRICE: 0.8567 @ 06:27 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 0.8530/8504 Low Mar 29 and Mar 8
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

A bullish cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. The breach in March of resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high, confirmed a range breakout highlighting a short-term bull theme. A resumption of gains would open 0.8607, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant M/T downtrend. The bear trigger is 0.8493, the Aug 23 2023 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Flag

• RES 4: 153.39 1.382 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 3: 153.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 152.66 1.236 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 151.97 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 151.59 @ 06:47 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 150.58/149.48 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
• SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1

USDJPY is unchanged. A bullish theme remains intact and the latest pause appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. MA studies are in a bull-mode position too highlighting an uptrend. Sights are on 151.91/95, the Nov 13 high and Oct 1 ‘22 highs respectively. The resistance has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the L/T uptrend and open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection. Support is at 150.58, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 167.10 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 165.35 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 163.43/164.42 High Apr 1 / High Mar 27
• PRICE: 163.34 @ 06:58 GMT Apr 03
• SUP 1: 162.26 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low
• SUP 2: 162.04 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 161.07 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 160.22 Low Mar 11

A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play and attention is on a key short-term support at 162.26, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. For now, the recent move down appears to be a correction, however, a clear break of the trendline would highlight a stronger short-term reversal. A clear breach of it would also highlight a break of the 50-day EMA - at 162.09. Initial firm resistance is at 164.42, the Mar 27 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: 0.6668 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6556/6635 50-day EMA / High Mar 21
• PRICE: 0.6515 @ 07:55 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
• SUP 3: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg

AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and maintains a softer tone. The reversal lower on Mar 21 reinstated a bearish threat and has exposed 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would open the key support and bear trigger at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position and continue to highlight a short-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6556, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3614 High Mar 19 / 22 / 25 / 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3573 @ 08:00 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 1.3456/20 Low Mar 21 / 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

A bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.3614, the Mar 19 high and a recent congestion level. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that began on Dec 27. This would expose 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement, and 1.3661, the Nov 27 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at 1.3420, the Mar 8 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 3: 134.15 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 133.48/69 High Mar 27 / 12
• RES 1: 132.95 High Apr 2
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 05:35 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 131.87/131.54 Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures traded lower yesterday. A deeper retracement would highlight a developing bearish threat once again and the end of the recent corrective phase between Mar 18 - 27. The bear trigger lies at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started last December. On the upside, a break of 133.48, the Mar 27 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.460 High Mar 12
• RES 1: 118.310 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 117.910 @ 05:50 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 117.600/340 Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)

Bobl futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A stronger reversal lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend that started early December last year. The recovery since Mar 18, appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains and a break of 118.310, the Mar 27 high, would expose key resistance at 118.790, Feb 15 / Mar 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Trading Above Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.040 Low Feb 15
• RES 2: 106.010 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.790/875 High Mar 25 / 12
• PRICE: 105.710 @ 06:01 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 105.615/515 Low Mar 21 / 15
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)

Schatz futures are consolidating. A downtrend remains intact, however, a S/T corrective cycle is in play and the contract is trading above its recent low. A resumption of gains would expose key resistance at 106.010, the Mar 8 high. A break of this level would be bullish. On the downside, a move lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started in December last year.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 3: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
• RES 2: 100.05/100.37 High Mar 22 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 99.32 High Apr 2
• PRICE: 98.39 @ Close Apr 2
• SUP 1: 98.20/98.05 Low Apr 2 / Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
• SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures have not managed to hold on to their recent gains. Instead, the gap lower yesterday and the subsequent sell-off, highlights a developing bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key short-term support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 100.37, the Mar 12 high.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Has Cleared Support

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.55/120.28 High Mar 27 / 14
• PRICE: 117.85 @ Close Apr 2
• SUP 1: 117.56 Low Apr 2
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures traded sharply lower Tuesday and cleared support at the 20-day EMA and breached 118.33, the Mar 15 low. The break lower highlights a bearish threat and cancels the recent bullish theme. A continuation lower would open 116.52, the Feb 29 low ahead of 116.15, the Feb 22 low and key support. A break of 119.55, the Mar 27 high, would reinstate a bull cycle.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 5170.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5079.00 High Apr 2
• PRICE: 4997.00 @ 06:17 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 4952.20 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4923.00 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 4872.00/4826.00 Low Mar 11 / 5
• SUP 4: 4771.00 Low Feb 22

A bullish trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Yesterday’s fresh cycle highs confirms once again an extension of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 5100.00 handle next. Initial firm support is at 4952.20, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Clears Bull Channel Support

• RES 4: 5434.54 Bull channel top drawn from the Jan 17 low
• RES 3: 5428.25 1.00 proj of the Oct 27 - Dec 28 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 5400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5333.50 High Apr 1
• PRICE: 5251.00 @ 07:20 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: 5242.12/5235.00 20-day EMA / Low Apr 2
• SUP 2: 5157.00 Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: 5132.64 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 5018.00 Low Feb 21

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish, however, the move lower yesterday highlights a corrective cycle that suggests potential for a bearish extension. The contract has breached bull channel support - at 5282.02 - drawn from the Jan 17 low. This has exposed the 20-day EMA, at 5242.12. Clearance of this average would open 5132.64, the 50-day EMA. Key resistance is 5333.50, Monday’s high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M4) Northbound

• RES 4: $92.96 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.98 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $89.76 - 1.618 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• PRICE: $89.06 @ 07:00 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: $85.43 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.86 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $79.70 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: $76.18 - Low Feb 5 and key S/T support

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains in play and the contract rallied yesterday, extending Monday’s positive start to the week. Resistance at $88.51, the Sep 15 ‘23 high has been cleared. The climb reinforces bullish conditions and sights are set on the psychological $90.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position and this highlights a clear rising trend. Initial support lies at $85.43, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K4) Impulsive Bull Cycle

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $89.08 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $87.01 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $85.73 - 1.618 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• PRICE: $85.13 @ 07:14 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: $81.04 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.72/75.50 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: $71.52 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.02 - Low Jan 3

A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s move higher reinforces current conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The contract has traded through $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high, paving the way for a climb towards the $90.00 handle further out. The next objective is $85.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $81.04, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $2376.5 - 2.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2329.5 - 2.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2300.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $2288.4 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $2282.8 @ 07:16 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: $2175.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $2116.0 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the yellow metal has traded to fresh all-time highs once again this week. The climb maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode condition, reflecting positive market sentiment. This signals scope for an extension towards the $2300.0 handle next. Key trend support has been defined at $2146.2, the Mar 18 low.

SILVER TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: $27.192 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.943 - High Mar 8 ‘22
• RES 2: $26.753 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $26.557 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $26.300@ 08:11 GMT Apr 3
• SUP 1: $24.654/328 - 20-day EMA / Low Mar 27 and key support
• SUP 2: $23.991 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver rallied sharply higher yesterday, resulting in a break of resistance at 25.761, the Dec 4 high. The clear breach strengthens bullish conditions. Note that key resistance at $26.135, May 5 ‘23 high, has also been cleared highlighting an important technical break. Sights are on $26.753 a Fibonacci projection point. Key support lies at $24.328, the Mar 27 low. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at $23.991.