MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - DXY Holds Above Key Support

Price Signal Summary - DXY Holding Above Key Support

• On the equity front, S&P E-minis remained near recent highs at the close Friday. The outlook is bullish and recent gains confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The focus is on 4580.21, 1.382 projection of the Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing. EUROSTOXX 50 remains firm following last week's break of 4238.50, Aug 13 high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing. Today's gains reinforce a bullish theme.
• In the FX space, EURUSD traded higher Friday on the weaker-than-forecast NFP release and touched but failed to break key resistance at the Jul 30 high of 1.1909. This level remains a key hurdle for bulls and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. GBPUSD traded higher Friday, reinforcing short-term bullish condition and extending the recovery that started Aug 20. The pair has breached its 50-day EMA to tilt the outlook more positive. This opens 1.3958 next, Aug 4 high. DXY remains below its 50-day EMA at 92.42. The index has entered a key support zone ahead of 91.78, Jul 30 low. A reversal signal ahead of this support, would highlight a potential base. A break though would strengthen the case for bears.
• On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but the outlook remains bullish with the focus on $1834.1, Jul 15 high and the next bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions. WTI futures remain in a bull mode. The focus is on $70.74, 76.4.% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off.
• In FI, Bund futures are trading closer to recent lows. Price action last week moved below the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart, reinforcing bearish conditions. Furthermore, the contract maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 171.79 next, 2.00 projection of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing. Gilt futures cleared support last week at 128.33, Aug 12 low and 128.24, Aug 12 low. The break strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for 128.03, the Jul 6 low (cont).

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key S/T Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1945 High Jun 28
• RES 2: 1.1933 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1874 @ 06:01 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.1804 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded higher Friday and touched but failed to break key resistance at the Jul 30 high of 1.1909. Price remains below last week's high and 1.1909 marks a key hurdle for bulls where a break would strengthen bullish conditions. The pair is holding above the 50-day EMA - the recent break of this average reinforced the positive S/T condition. The support to watch is 1.1735, Aug 27 low. A break would suggest the recent rally is over.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Tone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 1.3892 High Sep 3
• PRICE: 1.3833 @ 06:08 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.3791/31 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
• SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is consolidating but maintains a firmer tone. The pair traded higher Friday, reinforcing S/T bullish conditions as the recovery from Aug 20 extends. The 50-day EMA has been breached and the break higher last week opens 1.3958 next, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 1.3680, Aug 27 low. A move below this level would signal a resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Near Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8618 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8603 High Sep 01
• PRICE: 0.8583 @ 06:13 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.8543 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 0.8506 Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and a key support

EURGBP is trading near recent highs and maintains a positive short-term tone. The cross is holding above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs breached recently and remains above its 100-dma. The recent breach of the 100-dma strengthens a bullish case and the focus is on 0.8618 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.8543, Aug 24 low. A break would alter the picture and signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.42/46 High Sep 1 / High Aug 13
• PRICE: 109.81 @ 06:23 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 109.41 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is unchanged and continues to trade in a range. The outlook is unchanged too and the pair still appears vulnerable with attention on a key support at 108.72, Aug 4 low. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key near-term resistance remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. Clearance of the level would instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
• RES 3: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: 131.09/14 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 130.75 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.36 @ 05:32 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 129.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.16 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 128.60 Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger

EURJPY outlook remains bullish and is trading closer to recent highs. The cross breached its 50-day EMA last week and price remains above this average. Former resistance at 130.56, Jul 29 high has also been cleared. The break of these resistance points strengthens the current bull theme and opens 131.14 next, 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 127.94, Aug 19 low. Initial support lies at 129.71.

AUDUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
• RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 0.7478 High Sep 3
• PRICE: 0.7421 @ 06:42 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 0.7390/37 50-day EMA / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7285 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair is holding above its 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger bullish retracement with attention on 0.7503, Jul 13 high and a key near-term hurdle for bulls. A break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support to watch is at 0.7222, Aug 27 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support is at the 0.7390/37 zone.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2834/ 2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2654/2708 High Aug31 / High Aug 27
• PRICE: 1.2545 @ 06:46 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 1.2494 Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2303 Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD traded lower Friday, touching the lowest level since mid-August. This reinforces a bearish theme and recent bearish signals - a shooting star candle on Aug 20 and a strong sell-off and weak close on Aug 23. The pair has traded below its 50-day EMA strengthening the current bearish theme and this opens 1.2422, Jul 30 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2708.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 174.33 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• PRICE: 172.21 @ 05:08 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 172.01 Low Sep 3 and 6
• SUP 2: 171.79 2.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 171.49 2.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 171.30 2.382 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing

Bund futures maintain a weaker tone and are trading closer to recent lows. Price action last week moved below the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart, reinforcing bearish conditions. Furthermore, the contract maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Further weakness is likely. The focus is on 171.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 172.76, Sep 2 and 3 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 136.220 High Aug 20
• RES 4: 136.150 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• PRICE: 135.630 @ 05:08 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 135.600 Low Sep 6
• SUP 2: 135.536 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.477 1.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.430 1.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a weaker tone following last week's resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. Price traded lower again yesterday. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart, reinforcing bearish conditions. Also, a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. The focus is on 135.536 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance has been defined at 135.870, Sep 3 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trading At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.370 High Aug 20
• RES 3: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 2: 112.340 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.305 High Sep 3
• PRICE: 112.265 @ 05:29 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 112.260 Low Sep 6 and Intraday low
• SUP 2: 112.257 1.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.250 1.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.243 1.618 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain weak and are trading at recent lows. The contract traded lower Aug 31 resuming the downtrend that started Aug 5. Price has cleared recent support at 112.310, Aug 25 low and has also recently breached its 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. Further weakness is likely with the focus on 112.257 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is uncahanged at Friday's high of 112.305.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.72 High Aug 4 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 130.53 High Aug 5 (cont)
• RES 2: 129.35 High Aug 20 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 129.05 High Aug 31
• PRICE: 128.52 @ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 128.11/03 Low Sep 1 / Low Jul 6 (cont)
• SUP 2: 127.65 61.8% retracement of the Jun 3 - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Jun 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)

Gilt futures remain above recent lows. The outlook remains bearish though following a break of support last week at 128.33, Aug 12 low and 128.24, the Aug 26 low. The move lower strengthens a bearish case and signals scope for an extension. Note too that the contract has cleared the 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. The focus is on 128.03, Jul 6 low (cont). Key near-term resistance has been defined at 129.05, Aug 31 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.45 High Sep 2
• PRICE: 154.07 @ Close Sep 6
• SUP 1: 153.54 Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 152.84 50.0% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish. The contract has recently established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower high and note, on the continuation, the 50-day EMA has been breached reinforcing a bearish theme. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 154.45, Sep 2 high with a short-term firmer resistance defined at 155.14, Aug 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Fresh Trend High

• RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4282.32 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 4252.00 High Sep 6
• PRICE: 4235.50 @ 05:49 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 4180.00/38.50 Sep 3 low / Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
• SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied yesterday to a fresh trend high. The contract traded higher Sep 1 and breached 4238.50, Aug 13 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing. Yesterday's gains reinforce bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 4078.00, Aug 19 low. A break is required to signal a reversal. Initial firm support is at 4180.00, Sep 3 low.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Consolidating Ahead Of Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4610.63 1.50 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4580.21 1.382 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4549.50 High Sep 3
• PRICE: 4539.00 @ 06:50 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: 4475.44 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4400.53 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4347.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis are consolidating but remain closer to recent highs. The outlook is bullish and recent gains confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend. The contract's latest recovery cycle from 4347.75, Aug 19 low means the 50-day EMA continues to provide support and this reinforces bullish conditions. The average intersects at 4400.53. A clear break of the EMA is required to signal a short-term reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Monitoring Bear Channel Resistance

• RES 4: $75.20 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $75.13 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $74.84 - High Jul 30
• RES 1: $73.29/69 - Bear channel top drawn off Jul 6 high / High Sep 3
• PRICE: $72.73 @ 06:46 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $70.42 - Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures stalled at $73.69 Friday. The high was just above an important resistance at the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. $73.69 marks a key short-term resistance where a break is required to confirm a resumption of recent gains. This would open $74.84, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, watch support at $70.42 initially, the Sep 1 low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback ahead $69.77, Aug 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: $73.52 - High Jul 30
• RES 3: $71.71 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
• RES 2: $71.29 - High Aug 3
• RES 1: $70.74 - 764.% retracement of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off
• PRICE: $69.37 @ 06:54 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $67.12/65.41 - Low Aug 25 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support
• SUP 3: $60.81 - 1.236 proj of the Jul 6 - 20 - 30 price swing
• SUP 4: $60.68 - Low May 21

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key short-term support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme. Short-term, further gains are likely and the focus is on $70.74 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $67.12, Sep 1 low. A break would be seen as an initial bearish threat and potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16 and 76.4% of the Jun 1 - Aug 9 sell-off
• RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1817.1 @ 07:11 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $1801.8/1774.5 - Low Aug 31 / Low Aug 19
• SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold traded higher Friday and remains bullish. The yellow metal recently cleared its 50-day EMA. The move above this average confirms a resumption of the upleg from Aug 9 and signals scope for a test of resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen the current bullish theme. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A breach would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.690 - 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 1: $24.967 - 38.2% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
• PRICE: $24.566 @ 07:20 BST Sep 7
• SUP 1: $23.758 - Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: $23.346 - Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: $22.878/626 - Low Aug 20 / Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020

Silver traded higher Friday, extending recent gains and the current corrective bounce. The metal has cleared the 20-day EMA and is testing its 50-day EMA at 24.733. A clear breach of this EMA, would strengthen the short-term bullish theme and open $24.967 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at $23.758, Sep 1 low where a break is required to instead signal a resumption of bearish activity.