MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - E-mini S&P Support Cleared

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Key Support Cleared

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintains a bearish theme and Friday cleared key support 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The break strengthens a bearish case and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 3. EUROSTOXX 50 future sold off sharply last week and the contract maintains a bearish tone. Further losses would strengthen a bearish case and open 3951.50 and below, a Fibonacci extension.
• In FX, EURUSD is trading near recent lows and the outlook remains bearish. The break lower maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average conditions in a bear mode. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement. GBPUSD maintains a bearish theme following last week's break lower and the breach of a number of key supports. 1.3354 marks the next target, Dec 23, 2020 low. The USDJPY uptrend remains intact following last week's clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high. Near-term, the risk of a corrective pullback has increased though and this is highlighted by a bearish engulfing candle on Sep 30.
• On the commodity front, Gold bounced Thursday. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following last week's move lower and extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. A break of $1721.7, Sep 29 low would confirm a resumption of weakness and open key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. WTI remains below last Tuesday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
• Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and a bearish outlook remains intact. This follows recent weakness that confirmed an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. The current bear cycle in Gilt futures remains intact. This follows recent weakness and breach of the 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and last week's extension has opened 124.64 next, a Fibonacci projection.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1792/1846 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1755/72 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1664/1711 Low Aug 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1597 @ 06:11 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.1563 Low Sep 30 and low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1371 Low Jul 16

EURUSD is trading near recent lows and the outlook remains bearish. Last week's move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend following the break of key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low. The break lower maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs with moving average conditions in a bear mode. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is at 1.1755, Sep 22 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3854 High Sep 15
• RES 3: 1.3746 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3662 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3602/3610 Low Aug 20 / LowSep 22
• PRICE: 1.3552 @ 06:18 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.3412 Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3330 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3277 61.8% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase

GBPUSD maintains a bearish theme following last week's break lower and the breach of a number of key supports. A triangle base drawn from the Jul 20 low has been cleared. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for losses toward levels not seen since late December last year. 1.3354 marks the next target, Dec 23, 2020 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.the 1.3602/10 zone.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 0.8703 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 - Sep 16 rally
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8624/58 High Oct 1 / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.8560 @ 06:23 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 0.8544/26 Low Oct 01 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 0.8501 Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8498/84 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10

EURGBP remains volatile and on Friday the cross extended Thursday's sharp reversal lower, removing a recent bull theme. The move lower refocuses attention on support at 0.8526, Sep 28 low and 0.8501 Sep 16 low. A break of the latter support would strengthen a bearish case and set the scene for a deeper sell-off towards 0.8450, Oct 8 low. On the upside, the cross needs to breach 0.8658, Sep 29 high to resume its recent upleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112.84 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 2: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 1: 112.08 High Sep 30
• PRICE: 111.06 @ 06:28 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 110.80 High Aug 11
• SUP 2: 110.16/109.11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 and Sep 15
• SUP 3: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact following last week's clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high. Near-term, the risk of a corrective pullback has increased though and this is highlighted by a bearish engulfing candle on Sep 30. Key short-term support is at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. Initial firm support is seen at 110.16, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Soft

• RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.67/130.48 50-day EMA / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 128.76 @ 06:42 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 128.31 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY traded lower Thursday and the cross remains soft, highlighting a bearish risk once again. A continuation lower would again expose key support at 127.94/93, Aug 19 and Sep 22 low and an important bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend. For bulls, key resistance is at 130.75, Sep 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7332 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7283 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.7268 @ 06:48 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7102 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

The AUDUSD outlook remains fragile following last week's move lower and despite recent gains. 0.7194 has been cleared, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally and this signals a resumption of the near-term downtrend. Attention is 0.7106, the Aug 20 low and bear trigger - a breach would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7332, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Monitoring The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2775/2896 High Sep 29 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2622 @ 06:52 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.2594/83 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD is lower but remains above recent lows - the pair has recently found support just below the 50-day EMA and a bullish trend structure remains intact. A clear break of the 50-day EMA at 1.2622 today would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose 1.2494, Sep 3 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would again expose key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. This marks the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Recovery

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 170.68 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 170.32 @ 05:22 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 169.46 1.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 168.75 Low May 21 (cont)
• SUP 3: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and a bearish outlook remains intact. This follows recent weakness that confirmed an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 170.32.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 4: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.284/380 20-day EMA / High Sep 23
• RES 2: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level / Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.130 @ 05:16 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 134.960/770 Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.548 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone despite recent gains. This follows the recent resumption of the current downtrend. The move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 135.540, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is at 135.110.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.255 High Sep 23
• PRICE: 112.245 @ 05:22 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 112.210 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 4: 112.140 Low Jul 5 / 6 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend despite finding support last week. The recent breach of former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 112.174 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 3: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 125.89/126.44 High Sep 29 / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 125.33 @ Close Oct 1
• SUP 1: 124.83 Low Sep 30
• SUP 2: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.19 76.4% retracement of the Oct '18 - Mar '20 upleg
• SUP 4: 123.79 1.764 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

The current bear cycle in Gilt futures remains intact. This follows recent weakness and tne breach of the 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and last week's extension has opened 124.64 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average conditions are bearish, reinforcing the current trend environment. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is seen at 125.89, Sep 29 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Consolidating

• RES 4: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 153.37 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.50 @ Close Nov 1
• SUP 1: 151.62 Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 151.32 76.4% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)

BTP futures are consolidating but trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and the recent move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforced this condition. The focus is on 151.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23 / 24 high. A break of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 153.37, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Trades Through Key Support

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4106.70/4200.50 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
• PRICE: 4021.50 @ 05:59 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 3961.50 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 3: 3951.50 1.00 proj of the Sep 6 - Sep 20 - Sep 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 3892.70 1.236 proj of the Sep 6 - Sep 20 - Sep 24 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 future sold off sharply last week and the contract maintains a bearish tone. The move lower resulted in a breach on Friday of 3974.00, Sep 20 low although support was found at the session low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish case and open 3951.50 and below, a Fibonacci extension. The contract needs to get above 4200.50, Sep 24 high to refocus attention on the Sep 6 key resistance of 4223.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trend Condition Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4399.02/4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 4337.00 @ 06:57 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 4260.00 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis maintains a bearish theme and Friday cleared key support 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The break strengthens a bearish case and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 3. The move also establishes a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and this reinforces bearish conditions, opening 4214.50, Jul 19 low. The 50-day EMA at 4399.02 is resistance. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Still Bullish

• RES 4: $83.01 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $81.85 - High Oct 17, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $81.66 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $79.95/80.00 - High Sep 28 / Psychological round number
• PRICE: $79.13 @ 06:57 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $75.42 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $74.81 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 3: $72.51 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.99 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures remain below the Sep 28 high of $79.75 and this level marks initial resistance. A bullish outlook is intact and short-term dips are considered corrective. The recent break of former resistance at 75.42, Sep 15 high confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move has exposed $80.00 where a break would open $81.66, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at $75.42, Sep 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Heading North

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.67 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $75.63 @ 070:03 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $73.14 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 2: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.35 - Low Sep 9

WTI remains below last Tuesday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards the psychological $80.00 level further out. On the downside, firm support is seen at $73.14.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1781.7/87.4 - 50-day EMA / High Sep 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1760.8 @ 07:20 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold bounced Thursday. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following last week's move lower and extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. A break of $1721.7, Sep 29 low would confirm a resumption of weakness and open key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. Note that Thursday's price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. A rally would suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce, perhaps towards $1787.4.

SILVER TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $23.719 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.866/23.144 - 20-Day EMA / High Sep 22
• PRICE: $22.594 @ 07:25 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $21.423 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally
• SUP 3 :$20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21, 2020

Silver broke lower last Wednesday and cleared former support at $22.039, Sep 20 low. This ends the recent consolidation, confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for an extension towards $20.871, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key near-term resistance is at $23.144, Sep 22 high.