Trial now
AUSSIE BONDS

XM Has A Look Higher Early

MYR

Ringgit Holds Tight Range

CANADA

We May Not Get An Election Result Tonight

JGBS

Back From The Long Weekend

JPY

Consolidating Gains

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

Price Signal Summary – Equity Pullback Extends

  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis traded lower Friday and again yesterday, marking an extension of the pullback from 4539.50. Some support has surfaced though. The contract has breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards the key 50-day EMA at 4406.70. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend opening 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing.
  • In FX, EURUSD started the week on a softer note, breaching last week's low of 1.1802, Sep 8 low. The short-term outlook remains bearish with the focus on 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, the Aug 27 low. GBPUSD is unchanged. Recent activity has defined near-term directional parameters at; 1.3892, a key short-term resistance and the Sep 3 high and support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and continues to trade just ahead of recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and are trading higher. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key S/T support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme.
  • In FI, Bund futures remain weak having traded lower Friday, reversing Thursday's corrective gains. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. Gilt futures are consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower that saw price clear former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and trade through the 128.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 1.1965 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 3: 1.1945/53 High Jun 281.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 1.1851 High Sep 8 / Sep 10
  • PRICE: 1.1814 @ 05:53 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 1.1770/58 Low Sep 13 / 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 2: 1.1735/1664 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD started the week yesterday on a softer note, breaching last week's low of 1.1802, Sep 8 low. The pair did find support at the session lows though. The short-term outlook remains bearish with the focus on 1.1758, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.1735, the Aug 27 low. A break of 1.1735 would strengthen a bearish case and open 1.1664, Aug 20 low and the bear trigger. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.1909, Jul 30 and Sep 3 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Directional Parameters Defined

  • RES 4: 1.4001 High Jun 23
  • RES 3: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
  • RES 2: 1.3958 High Aug 4
  • RES 1: 1.3892 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 1.3840 @ 05:58 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 1.3801/27 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8 and key S/T support
  • SUP 2: 1.3680 Low Aug 27
  • SUP 3: 1.3602 Low Aug 20
  • SUP 4: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD is unchanged. Recent activity has defined near-term directional parameters at; 1.3892, a key short-term resistance and the Sep 3 high and support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low. A break of 13892 would confirm a resumption of the recovery from Aug 20 and open 1.3958 next, Aug 4 high ahead of a key resistance at 1.3983, Jul 30 high. Sub 1.3727 levels would instead signal the resumption of bearish pressure.

EURGBP TECHS: Needle Still Points South

  • RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
  • RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
  • RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sp 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
  • RES 1: 0.8558 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.8536 @ 06:04 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 0.8511 Low Sep 13
  • SUP 2: 0.8506/02 Low Jul 19 / 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
  • SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10 and the bear trigger

EURGBP traded sharply lower Sep 9, tilting the near-term outlook negative. The cross traded lower yesterday before finding some support. Key short-term support at 0.8543, Aug 24 low was cleared last week exposing 0.8506 and 0.8484 further out, the Jul 19 and Aug 16 lows respectively. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8614, the Sep 7 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Waiting For A Range Breakout

  • RES 4: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 110.82 High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
  • RES 1: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
  • PRICE: 110.07 @ 07:10 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 109.59/41 Low Aug 31 and Sep 3 / Low Aug 24
  • SUP 2: 109.11/108.72 Low Aug 16 / Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
  • SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY is trading above recent lows but the pair remains range bound. The near-term outlook is unchanged and a bearish risk is present. Key support to watch lies at 108.72, Aug 4 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case and open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, the level to breaks remains 110.80, Aug 11 high. A break would instead open key resistance at 111.66, Jul 2 high. Initial resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

  • RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
  • RES 3: 131.77 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
  • RES 2: 131.09/42 High Jul 13 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 130.34/75 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 130.03 @ 06:15 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 129.35 50.0% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 2: 129.01 61.8% retracement of the Aug 19 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 3: 128.60 Low Aug 24
  • SUP 4: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger

EURJPY is weaker following last week's pullback. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 130.75, Sep 3 high and the bull trigger. A deeper sell-off would expose 129.01, a Fibonacci retracement and a move below this level would signal scope for a test of key support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. For bulls, a break of 130.75 is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 19.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

  • RES 4: 0.7591 61.8% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
  • RES 3: 0.7534 High Jul 7
  • RES 2: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
  • RES 1: 0.7410/78 High Sep 10 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 0.7344 @ 06:20 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 0.7292 50.0% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 2: 0.7248 61.8% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
  • SUP 3: 0.7222/7106 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD yesterday traded below last week's low of 0.7345, Sep 8 low. The near-term outlook is bullish though and dips are still considered corrective. The pair has however probed its 20-day EMA and a deeper pullback would open 0.7292, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, 0.7478, the Sep 3 high, marks the trigger for a resumption of gains that started Aug 20. A break would open the 0.7499/7503 resistance zone.

USDCAD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

  • RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
  • RES 2: 1.2834/2949 High Aug 23 / High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 1.2762 High Sep 8
  • PRICE: 1.2652 @ 06:24 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
  • SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.2303 Low Jul 6

USDCAD remains below recent highs. The pair continues to display a stronger bullish short-term condition following the recent recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2762, Sep 8 high where a break would open 1.2834, Aug 23 high and the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Moving average conditions are in bull mode, reinforcing a bullish theme. On the downside, clearance of 1.2494 is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Risk Still Present

  • RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
  • RES 3: 173.93 High Aug 25
  • RES 2: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
  • RES 1: 172.48 High Sep 9
  • PRICE: 171.64 @ 05:04 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 171.45 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 171.30 2.382 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
  • SUP 3: 171.16 2.500 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
  • SUP 4: 171.00 Round number support

Bund futures remain weak having traded lower Friday, reversing Thursday's corrective gains. A bearish theme follows last week's move through 172.00. The break lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend from Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 171.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.76, Sep 2 and 3 high. 171.45 is the bear trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) S/T Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

  • RES 4: 136.150 High Aug 24
  • RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 3: 135.870 High Sep 3
  • RES 2: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9
  • PRICE: 135.440 @ 05:02 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 135.350 Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 135.324 1.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 135.230 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 4: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish. Last week's move lower marked an extension of the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 135.324 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trigger for a resumption of weakness is 135.350, Sep 8 low. Initial resistance is unchanged at 135.660, Sep 7 and 9 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Support Remains Exposed

  • RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
  • RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31 and key near-term resistance
  • RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
  • RES 1: 112.270 High Sep 9 and 10
  • PRICE: 112.240 @ 05:21 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 112.215 Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
  • SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a bearish cycle despite gains on Sep 9 - the move higher is considered a correction. Weakness early last week reinforced a bearish condition. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Further weakness is likely with the focus on 112.206 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is unchanged at 112.270, the Sep 9 and 10 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bears Pause For Breath

  • RES 4: 130.53 High Aug 5 (cont)
  • RES 3: 129.35 High Aug 20 and
  • RES 2: 129.05 High Aug 31
  • RES 1: 128.42/77 High Sep 7 / High Sep 3 a key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 127.98 @ Close Sep 13
  • SUP 1: 127.65 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Aug 4 rally (cont)
  • SUP 2: 127.50 Low Jun 28 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 23 (cont)
  • SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 (cont)

Gilt futures are consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following last week's extension lower that saw price clear former support at 128.11, Sep 1 low and trade through the 128.00 handle. Note too that the contract has recently cleared its 50-day EMA on the continuation chart. The focus is on 127.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.77, Sep 3 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Sequence

  • RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
  • RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
  • RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
  • RES 1: 154.52 High Sep 9 and key near-term resistance
  • PRICE: 154.03 @ Close Sep 13
  • SUP 1: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
  • SUP 2: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
  • SUP 3: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally
  • SUP 4: 151.93 Low Jul 8 (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish despite the strong bounce on Sep 9. The contract has recently established a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that signals potential for a continuation lower. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 154.52, Sep 9 high. The bear trigger is at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Remains Below Recent Highs

  • RES 4: 4341.40 1.382 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
  • RES 3: 4294.20 1.236 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
  • RES 2: 4285.53 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 1: 4252.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4199.00 @ 05:35 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 4132.50 Low Sep 9
  • SUP 2: 4078.00 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 4026.20 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Aug 13 rally
  • SUP 4: 3944.00 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures rallied to a fresh trend high of 4252.00 last week. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend opening 4294.20, 1.236 projection of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 swing. Price has since retreated and a corrective phase is still playing out. Attention is on 4138.50, the Aug 26 low. It has been probed and a clear break would expose 4078.00, Aug 19 low and a key support. 4132.50 is the intraday bear trigger, Sep 9 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): 50-Day EMA Exposed

  • RES 4: 4650.60 1.236 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
  • RES 3: 4600.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 4591.25 1.000 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
  • RES 1: 4519.75/39.50 High Sep 9 / High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: 4470.00 @ 06:28 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: 4434.50 Low Sep 13
  • SUP 2: 4406.70 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 4339.75 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: 4224.00 Low Jul 19 and key support

S&P E-minis traded lower Friday and again yesterday, marking an extension of the pullback from 4539.50. Some support has surfaced though. The contract has breached its 20-day EMA and this signals potential for a pullback towards the key 50-day EMA at 4406.70. The 50-day EMA still represents a key trend support parameter for bulls. A clear break would be bearish. On the upside, initial resistance is at 4519.75, Sep 9.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Clear Resistance And Its Bear Channel Top

  • RES 4: $75.20 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: $75.13 - High Jul 14
  • RES 2: $74.84 - High Jul 30
  • RES 1: $74.00 - Round number resistance
  • PRICE: $73.97 @ 06:23 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: $71.59/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 8
  • SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
  • SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
  • SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures are firmer and have traded above key resistance at $73.69, the Sep 3 high. Note that price is also trading above its bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. A break of $73.69 not only confirms a resumption of the recent uptrend but also confirms the channel breakout. This has strengthened a bullish argument and opens $74.84 next, the Jul 30 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 8 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Approaching The Bear Channel Top

  • RES 4: $75.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 3: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
  • RES 2: $73.52 - High Jul 30
  • RES 1: $71.37 - Bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high
  • PRICE: $70.95 @ 07:05 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: $68.63 - 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9
  • SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
  • SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and key support

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook and are trading higher. The recovery from the Aug 23 low defined a key S/T support at $61.74, Aug 23 low where a break is required to reinstate a broader bearish theme. Further gains are likely with $70.74 cleared, 76.4.% of the Jul 30 - Aug 23 sell-off. The focus is on $71.37, the bear channel top drawn from the Jul 6 high. Initial firm support lies at $67.56, Sep 9 low. A break would represent a bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

  • RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
  • RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16 and 76.4% of the Jun 1 - Aug 9 sell-off
  • RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
  • RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
  • PRICE: $1793.1 @ 07:17 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: $1782.5/1774.5 - Low Sep 8 / Low Aug 19
  • SUP 2: $1751.7 - Low Aug 13
  • SUP 3: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
  • SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger

Gold is unchanged and continues to trade just ahead of recent lows. The yellow metal last week failed to tackle a key resistance at $1834.1, Jul 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would strengthen the current bullish theme and pave the way for a climb towards $1863.3, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is unchanged at $1774.5, Aug 19 low. A breach of this level would instead signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Has Pulled Away From Recent Highs

  • RES 4: $25.690 - 50.0% retracement of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
  • RES 2: $24.867/967 - High Sep3 / 38.2% of the May - Aug sell-off
  • RES 1: $24.411 - High Sep 8
  • PRICE: $23.717 @ 07:21 BST Sep 14
  • SUP 1: $23.388 - Low Sep 13
  • SUP 2: $22.878 - Low Aug 20
  • SUP 3: $22.626 - Low Aug 09 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020

Silver has pulled away from recent highs. The metal recently cleared the 20-day EMA and did test its 50-day EMA currently at 24.590. The 50-day average has however capped gains so far. A clear breach of it would strengthen the short-term bullish theme and open $24.967 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the metal has cleared $23.758, Sep 1 low. This signals a resumption of bearish activity and opens $22.626, Aug 9 low.