MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EUR/USD Starts Week on Bullish Note

Price Signal Summary – EUR/USD Starts Week on Bullish Note

• S&P e-minis are unchanged and maintain a firmer tone. The contract traded sharply higher last Tuesday and is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 4411.88, a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4552.38. A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to last week’s gains. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development.
• EURUSD is starting the week on a bullish note as the pair extends last week’s rally. Recent strong gains reinforce the current bullish technical picture and the move higher signals scope for a climb towards 1.0945 next, the Aug 30 high and a key resistance. USDJPY has traded lower today as it extends the pullback from 151.91, the Nov 13 high. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 149.19. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a short-term bearish theme. AUDUSD traded higher last week and the pair has started this week on a bullish note. Today’s gains have resulted in a clear break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. The breach is an important short-term bullish development.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend cycle. A stronger resumption of gains would open $2022.20, May 15 high. The bull trigger is at $2009.4. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. The break lower last week marks an extension of the downtrend that started late September and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Price has breached resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 4. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and last week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract traded higher again Friday. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next.

EURUSD TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 1.1065 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 1.0960/83 61.8% of Jul 18-Oct 3 downleg / 2.0% 10-dma env
• RES 1: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.0925 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 1.0825/0756 Low Nov 17 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 1.0517/0496 Low Nov 1/ 13

EURUSD is starting the week on a bullish note as the pair extends last week’s rally. Recent strong gains reinforce the current bullish technical picture and the move higher signals scope for a climb towards 1.0945 next, the Aug 30 high and a key resistance. Moving average studies have crossed, highlighting a bull-mode position and a rising trend. Initial support lies at 1.0825, the Nov 17 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2643 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 1.2592 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2589 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2506 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 1.2480 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 1.2320 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2266/2187 Low Nov 14 / 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2138 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 1.2070 Low Oct 26

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and last week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. Resistance at 1.2428, the Nov 6 high, has been breached and note that price is also through 1.2459, 38.2% of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.2589 next, the 50.0% retracement point. Firm short-term support is at 1.2187, the Nov 10 low. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8768 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8750 @ 06:21 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 0.8612 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8680/50 50-day EMA / Low Nov 6
• SUP 3: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURGBP remains bullish and the cross has traded to a fresh cycle high today. Resistance at 0.8754, the Oct 31 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Firm support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8680.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 154.00 3.382 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• PRICE: 149.15 @ 06:38 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 148.70 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 148.17 Low Oct 10
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3
• SUP 4: 145.91 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low.

USDJPY has traded lower today as it extends the pullback from 151.91, the Nov 13 high. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 149.19. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction, towards 147.43, the Oct 3 low. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 151.95, the Oct 21 2022 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 166.97 1.50 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 1: 164.30 High Nov 16
• PRICE: 162.84 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 162.16 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 161.25/159.52 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 157.70 Low Oct 30
• SUP 4: 156.98 Low Oct 16

EURJPY bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Last week’s gains have reinforced bullish conditions and maintained the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting the market's positive sentiment. Sights are on the 164.77 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 161.25, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.6656 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6637 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.6582 50.0% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6563 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6552 @ 07:58 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 0.6421/6339 50-day EMA / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 nand the bear trigger

AUDUSD traded higher last week and the pair has started this week on a bullish note. Today’s gains have resulted in a clear break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. The breach is an important short-term bullish development and signals scope for a continuation higher towards 0.6582 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is at 0.6421, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Holds For Now

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4028 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3701 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 1.3676/29 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3629 Low Nov 6 and trendline drawn from the Jul 14 low
• SUP 3: 1.3569 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

USDCAD remains above last Wednesday’s 1.3655 low and above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3676. The trend outlook is bullish and short-term weakness - for now - appears to be a correction. Furthermore, moving average studies continue to highlight an uptrend. The key support lies at 1.3629, the Nov 6 low. A resumption of gains would open the bull trigger at 1.3899, the Nov 1 high. On the downside, clearance of 1.3629 would be a bearish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 132.13 1.382 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 131.74 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 130.87 @ 05:24 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 130.36/129.97 Low Nov 15 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 128.31/127.18 Low Oct 27 / 23
• SUP 4: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone following last week’s gains and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Price has breached resistance at 130.93, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 4. The move higher opens 132.13, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch is 129.35, the Nov 7 / 13 low. A breach of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 117.751 1.618 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.369 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 117.230 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 116.750 @ 05:42 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 116.421/000 20-day EMA / Low Nov 13
• SUP 2: 115.850 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and the pullback from Friday’s high is considered corrective. Last week’s rally signals a resumption of the uptrend and resistance at 116.940, the Nov 3 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle paves the way for a climb towards 117.610, the Sep 1 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.421, the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 116.00, the Nov 3 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.335 High Nov 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 105.265 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 105.125 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 105.060/104.925 Low Nov 15 / 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures reversed course last Tuesday, and the contract maintains a firmer tone - for now. A bullish engulfing candle was confirmed on Nov 14 . If correct, the pattern signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high. A break of this hurdle would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a breach of 104.925, the Nov 14 low, would instead reinstate a bearish threat.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 99.73 Low Apr 19 (cont)
• RES 3: 99.26 50.0% of the Mar 20 - Oct 23 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 98.98 High May 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 97.99 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 97.19 @ Close Nov 20
• SUP 1: 95.93 Low Nov 15
• SUP 2: 94.58/94.51 Low Nov 13 and a key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 93.44 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 92.63 Low Nov 1

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and last week’s gains reinforce current bullish conditions. The contract traded higher again Friday. Resistance at 96.71, the Sep 20 high, has been breached. This paves the way for a climb towards 98.98 next, the May 22 high on the continuation chart, and potentially 99.26, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 94.58, the Nov 13 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trend Conditions Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24
• RES 1: 114.89 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 113.95 @ Close Nov 20
• SUP 1: 113.07/111.53 Low Nov 15 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 4: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and last week’s gains reinforce this condition. The move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 113.00, the Nov 9 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Oct 19. Potential exists for a climb towards 115.56, the Aug 24 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 111.53, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a possible top.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Holding On To Its Latest Gains

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30
• RES 1: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• PRICE: 4348.00 @ 06:10 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 4256.00 High Oct 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4215.70/4143.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 8
• SUP 3: 4063.00 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 4001.00 Low Oct 27 and bear trigger

A short-term bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract is holding on to last week’s gains. Price has recently cleared resistance at both the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bullish development. Note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 4256.00, the Oct 12 high, reinforcing the bullish theme The focus is on 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4215.70, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4566.00 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 4552.38 76.4% retracement of the Jul 27 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4541.25 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 4522.00 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: 4420.25/4400.39 Low Nov 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 4257.75 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 4122.25 Low Oct 27 and the bear trigger

S&P e-minis are unchanged and maintain a firmer tone. The contract traded sharply higher last Tuesday and is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 4411.88, a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high, has been cleared. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards 4552.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 4400.39, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4:$93.20 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 24 / 20
• RES 2: $87.80 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.97 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $81.30 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: $76.60 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 2: $75.51 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.82 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.68 - Low Jun 23

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that the latest recovery appears - for now - to be a correction. The recent break lower paves the way for a move towards $75.51 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would further reinforce the bearish threat. Key short-term resistance is at $83.97, the Nov 14 high.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $80.75 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $78.91 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $76.68 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains in play and short-term gains are considered corrective. The break lower last week marks an extension of the downtrend that started late September and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting bearish market sentiment. The focus is on $70.96, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Nov 7 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1979.8 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: $1943.4/1908.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Oct 16
• SUP 2: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9
• SUP 4: $1810.5 - Low Oct 6 and key support

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and recent gains reinforce this condition. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend cycle. A stronger resumption of gains would open $2022.20, May 15 high. The bull trigger is at $2009.4, the Oct 27 high. Note that support at the 50-day EMA, at $1943.4, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would undermine the bullish theme and expose $1908.3, Oct 16 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $24.146 - High Nov 17
• PRICE: $23.582 @ 08:11 GMT Nov 20
• SUP 1: $22.909 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $21.883/573 - Low Nov 13 and a key support / Low Oct 9
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and last week’s strong gains have reinforced the bullish theme. The metal has cleared resistance at $23.774, the Sep 22 high and has pierced the $24.00 handle. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.014, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, initial support lies at $22.909, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at $21.883.