MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURCHF Tops Key Resistance

TECH FOCUS: Bullish EURCHF trend conditions improved significantly last week following the break of resistance at 1.0900.

• Using the point and figure chart, the uptrend is defined by a positive moving average slope structure following a reversal in May 2020 of the prior 24-month bear-trend.
• Bulls have cleared 1.0900, the June 2020 reaction high on the P&F chart (1.0916 is the intraday high on Jun 5 2020).
• The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions. 1.0900, a former resistance now marks a key pivot support area. Major support is at 1.0620.

This chart application and the technical structure suggests that on a 3-month time horizon, EURCHF is likely to remain in a bull mode.

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bears Eye Key Support

Equity indices outlook is unchanged and the broader trend is up with recent weakness considered a correction. E-mini S&P futures have managed so far to find support at the 50-day EMA. This week's gains are encouraging for bulls. Levels to watch today are:
- Support at 3785.00, Friday's low. A break would trigger a deeper sell-off.
- Initial resistance at 3934.50, Feb 25 high

• In the FX space, EURUSD is bouncing after trading poorly to kick off the week. Nonetheless, the outlook remains fragile. A shooting star candle Thursday followed by a bearish engulfing candle Friday highlights the current bearish sentiment. Furthermore, support at 1.2023, Feb 17 low has been cleared. The focus shifts to key support at 1.1952, Feb 5 low. USDJPY uptrend remains intact with the focus on 107.05, the Aug 13, 2020 highs. On the USD Index (DXY), key resistance is at 91.60, Feb 5 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear downtrend. Resistance is at $1775.9, Feb 26 high. The focus is on $1700.0. Oil contracts remain firm although it appears that a corrective cycle has started. Brent (K1) targets the $70.00 psychological handle but watch support at $61.39 Feb 19 low. WTI (J1) targets the round number resistance at $65.00. However keep an eye on support at $58.60, Feb 19 low.
• In the FI space, gains in Bunds are still considered corrective. Firm resistance is seen at 175.07, the 20-day EMA. Gilts (M1) remains bearish. Scope is for a move towards the 127.00 handle. Resistance seen at 129.00, Feb 24 high and a key near-term resistance.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2255 76.4% retracement of the Jan - Feb sell off
• RES 3: 1.2243 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2184 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 1.2101 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 1.2086 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.1992 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 1.1952 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1945 23.6% retracement of the Mar - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Nov 27

EURUSD maintains a weaker tone despite yesterday's gains. This follows the recent move lower and the confirmation of bearish candle patterns on Feb 25, a shooting star, and bearish engulfing on Feb 26. The move yesterday through support at 1.2023 reinforces the bearish patterns and signals scope for weakness towards 1.1952, Feb 5 low. On the upside, 1.2101 is initial resistance. A clear breach of this level would expose 1.2184, Feb 26 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.4237 High Feb 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4182 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.4138 Bull channel top drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: 1.4029 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.3944 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.3859/30 Low Mar 2 / Low Feb 17
• SUP 2: 1.3823 61.8% Retracement February Rally
• SUP 3: 1.3776 Low Feb 12 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 1.3743 50-day EMA

Cable remains vulnerable following the pullback from the Feb 24 multi-year high of 1.4237 and is trading closer to recent lows. Price traded below the 20-day EMA yesterday and a clear breach would signal scope for a move towards 1.3823, a retracement level, and the key near-term support at 1.3776, Feb 12 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4029, Feb 26 high. Key trend support is 1.3683, the bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below Friday's High

• RES 4: 0.8815 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 2: 0.8739 Low Feb 5
• RES 1: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8666 @ 06:14 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.8541 Low Feb 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8523 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8479 2.0% 10-dma Envelope

EURGBP is unchanged. The cross started the week on a softer note with near-term resistance defined at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. Technical signals continue to register a bearish trend and further weakness would open 0.8597, Feb 25 low ahead of the bear trigger at 0.8541, Feb 24 low. On the upside, a move above 0.8731 would signal a resumption of the corrective bounce and this would expose the 50-day EMA at 0.8809.

USDJPY TECHS: Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 107.53 High Jul 20, 2020
• RES 3: 107.15 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• RES 2: 107.05 High Aug 13, 2020
• RES 1: 106.96 High Mar 2
• PRICE: 106.88 @ 06:23 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 106.22 High Feb 17 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 105.85 Low Feb 25/26
• SUP 3: 105.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 105.28 Trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low

The USDJPY outlook remains bullish with the pair holding onto recent gains. Last week's break of 106.22, Feb 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies remain in a bull mode reinforcing current conditions and price also remains above its trendline support drawn off the Jan 1 low. The focus is on 107.05, Aug 13, 2020 high. Support lies at 105.85, Feb 25/26 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Back Above 129.00

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.73 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• RES 2: 129.98 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.52 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 129.10 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 128.19 Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: 127.87 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 127.04 Low Feb 15

EURJPY is trading back above 129.00. The cross maintains its underlying bullish tone despite the recent move lower from last week's Feb 25 high of 129.98. However, from a short-term perspective trend conditions are overbought signalling scope for a corrective pullback. If this occurs, a move lower would open 127.87, the 20-day EMA. For bulls, clearance of 129.98 resumes the uptrend and would open 131.22, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bounce Likely A Correction

• RES 4: 0.8164 High May 15, 2015
• RES 3: 0.8136 High Jan 2018 and Major Resistance
• RES 2: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7883 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 0.7816 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.7701/7693 50-day EMA / Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 0.7651 Low Feb 8
• SUP 3: 0.7583/64 Low Feb 5 / Low Feb 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7557 Low Dec 28

Despite this week's recovery, AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week's sharp sell-off from 0.8007, Feb 25 high. Price action has so far managed to find support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 0.7701. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open the 0.7600 handle and potentially below. Initial resistance is at 0.7883, Feb 26 high with the bull trigger for a resumption of gains defined at 0.8007.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.2915 High Dec 23
• RES 3: 1.2845/81 High Feb 4 / High Jan 28
• RES 2: 1.2763/42 High Feb 12
• RES 1: 1.2749 High Feb 26
• PRICE: 1.2630 @ 06:45 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: 1.2468/51 Low Feb 25 / Low Feb 16, 2018 Low
• SUP 3: 1.2381 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2276 Trendline Drawn From May 2015 Low

The USDCAD outlook is unchanged with a firmer S/T tone still in place following the recovery from 1.2468 Feb 25 low. Gains have so far stalled at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.2735. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for stronger gains towards 1.2881, Jan 28 high. On the downside, a move through 1.2468 would resume bearish pressure towards support drawn off the May 2015 low, a trendline that lies at 1.2276 this week.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H1) Approaching The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 176.06 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 175.70 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 175.26 High Feb 18
• RES 1: 175.07 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 174.92 @ 04:59 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 173.77 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 173.07 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 172.08 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.82 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Dec 2020 rally (cont)

Bund futures maintains this week's firmer tone. However, despite the strong rebound off the Feb 25 low of 172.08, broader trend conditions remain bearish and the recovery is considered a correction with recent oversold trend conditions unwinding. The focus is on the 20-day EMA at 175.03. A break of this average would signal scope for a stronger move higher. Initial support is at 173.77, Monday's low.

BOBL TECHS: (H1) Trades Above Its 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 134.930 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 134.850 High Feb 15
• RES 2: 134.790 Low Feb 5 and High Feb 18
• RES 1: 134.750 High Mar 2 and intraday high
• PRICE: 134.740 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 134.360 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 134.100 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 133.800 Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: 133.790 Low Jun 5, 2020 (cont)

Bobl futures maintain a bearish theme however last week's volatile session on Thursday/Friday and this week's climb means the contract remains in a corrective phase and is unwinding a recent oversold trend condition. The price is trading above the 20-day EMA. The breach of this average signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens the 50-day EMA at 134.930. Initial support lies at 134.360, Monday's low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12
• RES 2: 112.272 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 112.250 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 112.240 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 112.180 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 112.140 Intraday hourly low during the Feb 26 session
• SUP 3: 112.070 Low Feb 26
• SUP 4: 112.040 Low Sep 7 and 8 2020 (cont)

Schatz futures remain in a bear trend although the sharp recovery from 112.070, Feb 26 low, means this market has entered a corrective cycle. This is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and further gains would signal scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA at 112.272. On the downside, initial support lies at Monday's low of 112.180.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Bearish Still In Charge

• RES 4: 130.46 High Feb 16
• RES 3: 130.00 Round number support
• RES 2: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 1: 129.27 High Mar 2
• PRICE: 128.95 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 127.94 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 127.55 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 127.37 61.8% retrace of the 2018 - 2020 bullish cycle (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.85 Low May 3, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures bears remain in control as price maintains a bearish sequence of lower lows and lowers highs. From a short-term perspective though, a corrective bullish cycle appears to be unfolding. The contract has been in oversold territory since early Feb and gains will allow this condition to unwind. Further upside would open 129.75, Feb 19 high. The key support and bear trigger is 127.55, Feb 26 low.

BTP TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 152.62 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 151.98 High Feb 22
• RES 2: 151.24/28 20- and 50-day EMA zone
• RES 1: 151.07 High Mar 1
• PRICE: 150.75 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 149.96 High Mar 1
• SUP 2: 148.72 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 148.37 Low Oct 22 and key support
• SUP 4: 148.13 200-dma (cont)

BTP futures remain in a bear mode following last week's strong sell-off however, from a short-term perspective the contract has entered a bullish corrective phase. The recent sell-off saw price clear support at 149.57, Jan 22 low adding further weight to a bearish theme. Key near-term support has been defined at 148.72, Feb 26 low. A break would open the 148.00 handle. Resistance is seen at 151.24/28 zone, the 20- and 50-day EMAs.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 3828.51 1.382 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3798.19 0.764 proj of Mar - Jul - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 2: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 3728.65 High Feb 25
• PRICE: 3707.72 @ Close Mar 2
• SUP 1: 3658.12 Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 3622.24 Low Feb 26
• SUP 3: 3614.43 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3576.43 61.8% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 15 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 remains in a broader uptrend but has also recently entered a short-term corrective phase following the move higher from 3742.53, Feb 15 high. For bears, attention has been on the 50-day EMA at 3610.62 where a break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.Monday's gains are encouraging for bulls. 3742.53 marks the bull trigger where a break would resume the uptrend and open 3798.19, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Focus Is On The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $67.06 - 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: $66.82 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $65.93 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $63.19 @ 06:44 Mar 3
• SUP 1: $62.16 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $61.39 - Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: $60.19 - Low Feb 12 and trendline drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• SUP 4: $58.08 - 50-day EMA

Brent crude futures remain in an uptrend although from a short-term perspective, and with price trading below recent highs, a corrective wave is currently in play. This importantly is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $62.16. A break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards trendline support at $60.19, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains $66.82.

WTI TECHS: (J1) Tests It's 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $65.65 - High Jan 8, 2020 (cont)
• RES 3: $65.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $63.81 - High Feb 24
• RES 1: $62.92 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $60.10 @ 06:49 Mar 3
• SUP 1: $59.24 - 20-day EMA and intraday low
• SUP 2: $58.60 - Low Feb 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $57.31 - Low Feb 12
• SUP 4: $57.04 - Trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low

WTI futures remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback suggests the contract has entered a short-term corrective phase. This is allowing an overbought condition to unwind and attention is on the 20-day EMA at $59.24. A clear break of the average would allow for a deeper pullback towards a trendline support at $57.04, drawn off the Nov 2 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains $63.81, the Feb 25 high.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $1823.8 - 50-day EMA
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1791.3 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1760.7/75.9 - Low Feb 19 / High Feb 26
• PRICE: $1732.8 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $1707.2 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1689.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Aug 2020 rally
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold remains in a clear downtrend. This follows last week's sharp sell-off that saw the yellow metal trade through support at $1760.67, Feb 19 low. The break confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since the reversal in August 2020. The focus is on the $1700.0 level next. MA studies are also in a bear mode highlighting the current path of least resistance. Initial firm resistance is seen at $1775.9, Feb 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 3: $28.498 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - 4 sell-off
• RES 2: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 1: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• PRICE: $26.671 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: $25.853 - Low Mar 2
• SUP 2: $25.483 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally
• SUP 3: $24.700 - Low Jan 27
• SUP 4: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support

Silver remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure. The metal traded lower yesterday. The key near-term support at $25.905, Feb 4 low has been probed. Clearance of this level would set the scene for a deeper pullback and expose $25.483, 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 1 rally. Key resistance has been defined at $28.328, Feb 23 high where a break would likely trigger stronger gains.