MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Eurostoxx Breaches Support to Touch YTD Low

Price Signal Summary – Eurostoxx Breaches Support to Touch YTD Low

• S&P E-Minis are trading lower today but - for now - continue to trade above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week and in the process breached support at the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective.
• GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday and maintains a softer tone. The pair has pierced a key short-term support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.2615. A clear break of both support points would highlight a short-term top. USDJPY is trading higher this week as the pair extends the recovery that started Dec 28. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 146.41, the Jan 11 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher opens 148.51 next, the Nov 30 high. AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and continues to trade lower. The pair has breached 0.6640, trendline support drawn from the late October low. The clear breach of the line strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction.
• Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from last Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.36, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. Gold has pulled back from its most recent highs. Attention is on support at $2017.3, the 50-day EMA and last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). A breach of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat and expose a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday, resuming the bear phase. This strengthens the current downtrend and reinforces the short-term importance of the recent break below the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures are in consolidation mode. Recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that signals scope for a move lower near-term. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Has Cleared Trendline Support

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0864 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.0861 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday and the outlook remains bearish. Price has breached a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low. The clear break of this trendline strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper correction. Note that key support at 1.0877, the Jan 5 low, has been pierced. A clear breach would further reinforce bearish conditions and open 1.0793, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 1.0998, Jan 5 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2697 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2603 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.2606 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2525 38.2% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday and maintains a softer tone. The pair has pierced a key short-term support at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low and traded through the 50-day EMA, at 1.2615. A clear break of both support points would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high. Initial resistance is at 1.2697, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8638 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:22 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.8586 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP remains in consolidation mode. A short-term bear threat is present and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The break of the 50-day EMA earlier this month strengthens a bearish theme and a resumption of the bear cycle would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8638, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 3: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 2: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 1: 147.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.75 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 145.35/144.51 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 143.42 Low Jan 9 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger

USDJPY is trading higher this week as the pair extends the recovery that started Dec 28. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 146.41, the Jan 11 high, confirming a resumption of the bull cycle. The move higher opens 148.51 next, the Nov 30 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 143.42, the Jan 9 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a top and highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

EURJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.66 Intraday high
• PRICE: 160.62 @ 07:07 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 158.55 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 157.21 Low Jan 9 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing

EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and the cross is trading higher today. This week’s gains strengthens a short-term bullish theme and has resulted in a move through resistance at 160.18, the Jan 11 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 161.69, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 158.55, the Jan 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6645 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6551 @ 07:57 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 0.6542 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6453 Low Nov 17

AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and continues to trade lower. The pair has breached 0.6640, trendline support drawn from the late October low. The clear breach of the line strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low. On the upside, firm resistance to watch is 0.6729, the Jan 12 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6645, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.3520 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD continues to climb. This week’s rally has resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA, at 1.3456. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started Dec 27 last year and signals scope for 1.3538, a Fibonacci retracement and 1.3608 further out, the Dec 13 high. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low. A reversal lower and a breach of 1.3343 would signal a top.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 136.16 High Jan 5 / 8
• RES 1: 135.80 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 134.71 @ 05:29 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 3: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 132.29 Low Nov 30

Bund futures traded lower yesterday, resuming the bear phase. This strengthens the current downtrend and reinforces the short-term importance of the recent break below the 20-day EMA. Sights are on key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. A break of this level would open 133.42, the Dec 4 low. Initial resistance is at 135.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA is required to ease bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.640 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 117.990 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Jan 10 / 11
• SUP 2: 117.836/800 50-day EMA / Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 117.060 Low Dec 1

A bearish corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing 117.800, the Dec 8 low, Note that the 50-day EMA lies at 117.847. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. Initial resistance is at 118.640, the Aug 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.270/360 High Jan 5 and 12 / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 106.060 @ 05:58 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 105.935 Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains present. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, was breached last week. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.56 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 99.95 @ Close Jan 16
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are in consolidation mode. Recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that signals scope for a move lower near-term. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.17 @ Close Jan 16
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.43 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures appears to be a correction. However, price has recently traded below support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 116.43 - a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Correction Extends

• RES 4: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4536.00 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 4423.00 @ 06:29 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 4404.80 38.2% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded lower this week and in the process breached support at the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. However, the break below 4444.00 and 4450.70, the 50-day EMA, suggests scope for an extension of the bear cycle. This has opened 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. Initial resistance is 4536.00, the Jan 11 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4772.25 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4688.59 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4684.17 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis are trading lower today but - for now - continue to trade above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4773.54 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4684.17.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $80.75/81.45 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $77.61 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures are unchanged. The contract failed to hold on to last Friday’s high and remains below key short-term resistance at $81.45, Dec 26 high. The outlook is bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery is likely a correction. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Trend Signals Remain Bearish

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.36/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $71.69 @ 07:11 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from lasy Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.36, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18, the Dec 26 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2062.3/2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2018.7 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $2017.3/2013.4 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold has pulled back from its most recent highs. Attention is on support at $2017.3, the 50-day EMA and last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). A breach of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat and expose a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg. Initial resistance is at $2062.3, the Jan 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Following Break Of Trendline Support

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.471 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.712 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 17
• SUP 1: $22.476 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent weakness in Silver has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, Dec 13 low. This level was pierced last week, a clear break of it would open $21.883, Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.