MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Eurostoxx Trend Condition Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary - Eurostoxx Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. A continuation lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July.
• GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat. The pair started the week on a bearish note and price is trading lower again today. The extension lower maintains the downtrend price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. The AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and the pair is trading lower today. Support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger, has been breached. This highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early February.
• Gold started this week’s session on a bearish note and the metal is trading lower again today. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. WTI futures have started the week on a bearish note and a corrective cycle is in play. The contract has traded through support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The breach highlights a short-term top and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $84.37.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract traded sharply lower last week before finding some support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of support at 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. Furthermore, 92.71, 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run, has been pierced.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Trend Extension

• RES 4: 1.0761 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0674 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.0647 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0465 @ 05:45 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.0460 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0382 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD has traded to a fresh trend low, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position. The break lower signals scope for a move towards 1.0406 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0647, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bears remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.2492 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2425 High Sep 19
• RES 2: 1.2328 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2272 High Sep 25
• PRICE: 1.2066 @ 06:06 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.2061 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat. The pair started the week on a bearish note and price is trading lower again today. The extension lower maintains the downtrend price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in bear-mode position, reflecting current market sentiment. The focus is on 1.2028, Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2328, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8673 @ 06:17 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 0.8637 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8615/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross has managed to remain above the 20-day EMA, at 0.8637. Recent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. This was followed by a move above trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high - the trendline intersects at 0.8666. A clear break of the line would strengthen bullish conditions. A break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching 150.00

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.00 Psychological round number
• PRICE: 149.93 @ 06:49 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 148.15/147.32 20-day EMA / Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 146.44 Low Sep 12
• SUP 3: 146.14 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.91 Low Sep 11

The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. This week’s fresh trend high reinforces current conditions and moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Attention is on the psychological 150.00 handle. A break of this barrier would reinforce bullish conditions and open 150.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 148.15, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.87 @ 07:04 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY is slightly weaker but continues to trade inside a range. The cross is below the 50-day EMA once again - at 157.21. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal. This would expose 155.54, Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Range Breakout

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6422/6501 20-day EMA / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6318 @ 07:42 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 0.6306 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and the pair is trading lower today. Support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger, has been breached. This highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 0.6287 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Challenging Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 1.3716 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3700 @ 08:05 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 1.3531 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3488 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded higher again Monday. The pair has pierced key short-term resistance at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high. This highlights a bullish theme and reverses the recent bearish phase. A clear break of 1.3695, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-July. A trendline resistance - at 1.3703 and drawn from the Oct 13 ‘22 high - has also been pierced. A clear trendline break would be bullish. Support to watch 1.3531, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 3: 129.50 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.23 High Sep 27
• RES 1: 128.79 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 127.80 @ 05:22 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 127.01 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract traded sharply lower last week before finding some support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of support at 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Sights are on 126.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 130.19, the Sep 22 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 116.150 High Sep 22 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 115.977 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.790 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 115.450 @ 05:32 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.590 2.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and the contract traded sharply lower last week, before finding support on Friday. Gains are considered corrective. The recent break of 116.00, Aug 15 low and a key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and last week’s move lower strengthened the case for bears. The focus is on 114.817, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.115 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 105.019 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.995 High Sep 26 / 29
• PRICE: 104.955 @ 05:41 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 104.830/765 Low Sep 29 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. A key resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.019, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 95.63 High Sep 27
• RES 3: 94.64 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 94.74 High Sep 28
• RES 1: 93.71 High Oct 2
• PRICE: 92.78 @ Close Oct 2
• SUP 1: 92.54 Low Oct 2
• SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 91.62 Low Aug 22
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower reinforces this condition. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. Furthermore, 92.71, 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would expose key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 96.71, the Sep 20 high. Initial firm resistance is at 94.74, the Sep 28 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Oversold But Remains In A Downtrend

• RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 111.40 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 110.52 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 109.41 @ Close Oct 2
• SUP 1: 108.08 Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last Thursday reinforces bearish conditions. However, the contract is in oversold territory and price has recovered from last week’s low. A move higher is considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind. On the downside, the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 has been pierced - a major support. A break would open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. Resistance is at 110.52, the Sep 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4289.80 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4237.60 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4133.00 @ 06:38 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 4125.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4109.90 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. A continuation lower would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signal scope for a move towards 4109.90, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 4237.60, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4415.45/4461.47 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 4399.00 High Sep 22
• PRICE: 4320.25 @ 07:13 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: 4277.00 Low Sep 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4259.00 Low May 31
• SUP 3: 4242.15 1.236 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4194.75 Low May 24

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low, reinforced bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower. Sights are on 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is 4461.47, the 50-day EMA. Ahead of the 50-day average is resistance at 4399.00, the Sep 22 high, and 4415.45, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Enters A Corrective Phase

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 3: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $89.74 @ 07:04 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $87.37 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 4: $77.54 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact, however, the contract has entered a corrective cycle. Price has traded through support at $90.41, the Sep 26 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a move towards support at the 50-day EMA - at $87.51. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $95.35, the Sep 28 high.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Support Gives Way

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.03 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $88.20 @ 07:11 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $87.76 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $84.37 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

WTI futures have started the week on a bearish note and a corrective cycle is in play. The contract has traded through support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The breach highlights a short-term top and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $84.37 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish condition. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.08, the Sep 28 high.

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1915.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1879.9/1898.1 - High Sep 29 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1849.0 - High Oct 2
• PRICE: $1820.6 @ 05:58 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $1815.3 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1786.1 - 61.8% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15 2022

Gold started this week’s session on a bearish note and the metal is trading lower again today. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early May. Attention is $1804.9, the Feb 28 low and a key support. On the upside, firm resistance is at $1898.1, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Bear Cycle

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $22.176/22.871 - High Oct 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $20.989 @ 08:12 BST Oct 3
• SUP 1: $20.689 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish and yesterday’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The metal has breached support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early May. Sights are on the $20.00 handle next. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.