MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EuroStoxx50 Pullback Exposes Support

Price Signal Summary – EuroStoxx50 Pullback Exposes Support

• The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has traded above resistance at 4537.06, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. Eurostoxx 50 futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A continuation lower would expose support at 4225.00, the Aug 24 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test of the key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger.
• EURUSD extended losses Tuesday to clear the late August lows and hit the lowest levels since early June. The breach of the base of the bull channel at 1.0786, drawn from the Mar 15 low, reinforces the current bearish condition and opens 1.0668. The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday. Price cleared resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and the bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high.The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair traded sharply lower Tuesday. The sell-off resulted in a print below key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low.
• A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA - at $1932.0. This highlights a stronger short-term bull leg and signals scope for a climb towards $1963.3. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s extension reinforces this condition. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday. This has resulted in a break of support at 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The break undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights a possible reversal.

EURUSD TECHS: Has Cleared Channel Support

• RES 4: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 1.0861/1.0945 20-day EMA / High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0786 Former channel support-now-resistance
• PRICE: 1.0733 @ 05:38 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 1.0707 Low Sep 5
• SUP 2: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0611 38.2% Fib retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg

EURUSD extended losses Tuesday to clear the late August lows and hit the lowest levels since early June. The breach of the base of the bull channel at 1.0786, drawn from the Mar 15 low, reinforces the current bearish condition and opens 1.0668 next, the Jun 7 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0945, the Aug 30 high. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a short-term reversal.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2675/2746 20-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.2576 @ 06:02 BST Sep 06
• SUP 1: 1.2521 1.382 of Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD remains below key short-term resistance at 1.2746, the Aug 30 high. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. For now, the trend outlook is bearish and Tuesday’s move lower has reinforced this condition. Support at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low, has been breached. This confirms a resumption of the trend and opens 1.2480, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8629 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8588/8611 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8536 @ 06:26 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8482 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP maintains a softer short-term tone and remains below 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. Gains have recently stalled above the 50-day EMA - at 0.8588. A break of this average and 0.8611 is required to strengthen a short-term bullish theme that would open 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. For now, moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. A break would resume the trend.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish price Action

• RES 4: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 3: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 1: 147.82 Intraday high
• PRICE: 147.23 @ 06:42 BST Sep 06
• SUP 1: 145.52/144.45 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.46 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.63 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 29 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and the pair traded higher Tuesday. Price cleared resistance at 147.37, the Aug 29 high and the bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. On the downside, last Friday’s low of 144.45 represents the key short-term support where a break would highlight a short-term top and signal scope for a deeper correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Recent Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.94 @ 06:53 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 156.87 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

The recent pullback in EURJPY appears to be a correction and the trend outlook remains bullish. Last week’s fresh cycle high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The next bull trigger is 159.76, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 156.66. A clear break of this average would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6555 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1
• RES 2: 0.6474 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6389 @ 07:54 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair traded sharply lower Tuesday. The sell-off resulted in a print below key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a move towards 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Sights Are On Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3723 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3708 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.3670 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 1.3649 @ 08:01 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 1.3522/3490 20-day EMA / Low Sep 1
• SUP 2: 1.3435 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3352 Low Aug 7
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, testing resistance and reinforcing a bullish outlook. The pair showed above 1.3655, May 26 high, before fading. A clear break of this level would expose 1.3723, a trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high. It represents an objective further out and a key resistance. On the downside, key support has been defined at 1.3490. A reversal lower and a break of this level would signal a short-term top.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Breaches Support

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 131.53 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.94 @ 05:15 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 130.71 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 129.93 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 129.72 Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 129.30 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures Traded lower Tuesday. This has resulted in a break of support at 131.18, the Aug 28 low. The move lower undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 130.71, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would expose 129.72, the Aug 15 low and a key support. Key resistance is at 132.91, the Aug 8 high.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 117.640 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 117.610 High Sep 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.230 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 116.960 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 116.770 @ 05:40 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 115.610 Low Aug 28 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 115.500 Low AUg 23
• SUP 3: 116.170 Low Aug 21
• SUP 4: 116.000 Low Aug 15

Bobl futures have pulled back from the Sep 1 high of 117.610 and attention is on support at 116.610, the Aug 28 low. This represents an important short-term support and a break would undermine the recent bullish theme, exposing 116.500, the Aug 23 low, initially. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, a break of 117.610 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Directional Triggers Defined

• RES 4: 105.704 1.236 projection of the Aug 15 - 24 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 105.395 High Sep 5
• PRICE: 105.325 @ 06:10 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 105.285 Low Sep 5
• SUP 2: 105.160 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 105.140 Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 105.041 1.236 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures continue to trade below their August highs. Recent activity has highlighted key directional parameters at 105.140, the Aug 15 low and 105.580, the Aug 24 high. A breach of support would reinstate a bearish theme and open 105.041, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 105.580 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 105.704, a Fibonacci projection.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 94.81/95.79High Sep 4 / 1
• PRICE: 93.93 @ Close Sep 5
• SUP 1: 93.63 50.0% retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 2: 93.12 61.8 retracement of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 rally
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and this resulted in a break of support at 94.14, the Aug 29 low. The break undermines the recent bullish theme and highlights a possible reversal . If correct, it suggests potential for a deeper retracement. The next support is 93.63, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is 95.79, the Sep 1 high. A breach of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 114.33/115.56 20-day EMA / High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.51@ Close Sep 5
• SUP 1: 113.30 76.4% retracement of the Aug 17 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 113.00 Low Aug 22
• SUP 3: 112.60 Low Aug 17 and a key support
• SUP 4: 112.00 Round number support

BTP futures traded lower yesterday and this threatens the recent bullish theme. The contract has cleared support at 113.97, the Aug 28 low. A continuation lower would expose 112.60, the Aug 17 low and a key support point. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 114.33, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is at 115.56, the Aug 24 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4358.00/4388.50 Aug 30 high / 61.8% Jul 31-Aug 18 downleg
• RES 1: 4301.90 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4259.00 @ 06:04 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 4225.00 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 4187.00 Low Aug 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A continuation lower would expose support at 4225.00, the Aug 24 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a test of the key support at 4187.00, the Aug 18 low and bear trigger - moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. For bulls, clearance of resistance at 4358.00, the Aug 30 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4547.75 High Sep 1
• PRICE: 4498.25 @ 07:17 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: 4459.74 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4350.00 Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4305.75 Low Jun 8

The E-mini S&P contract maintains a firmer tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has traded above resistance at 4537.06, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4459.74, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: $94.79 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $92.91 - High Nov 17 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: $91.15 - High Sep 5
• PRICE: $90.00 @ 06:59 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: $85.48 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $82.82 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.84 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: $76.68 - Low Jul 10

Brent futures traded higher Tuesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The move higher resulted in a print above the psychological $90.00 handle. A continuation would set the scene for gains towards $92.91, the Nov 17 2022 high (cont). On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at the 20-EMA which intersects at $85.48 today. A pullback in the contract would be considered corrective.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Northbound

• RES 4: $94.66 - 2.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 3: $92.17 - High Nov 8 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $88.07 - Yesterday’s high
• PRICE: $86.67 @ 07:04 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: $81.46/78.79 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $69.72 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and yesterday’s extension reinforces this condition. The recent break of resistance at $84.16, the Aug 10 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the psychological $90.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $81.46, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Has Pulled Back From Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1953.0 - High Sep 4
• PRICE: $1926.6 @ 07:23 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: $1903.9 - Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a move above the 50-day EMA - at $1932.0. This highlights a stronger short-term bull leg and signals scope for a climb towards $1963.3, 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. Initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low. A break of this level would instead be viewed as a bearish development.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.298/25.014 - High Sep 4 / High Aug 30
• PRICE: $23.415@ 08:09 BST Sep 6
• SUP 1: $23.211 - Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Silver traded lower yesterday and is weaker today. The metal is testing support at $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A clear break of this level would threaten the recent bullish theme and instead signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would potentially open $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. The latter is a key resistance.