MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURUSD Trend Structure Remains Bullish

Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Trend Needle Points North

• In the equity space, a bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. Support to watch lies at 5493.52, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4870.23. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. Initial support is at 4831.56, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD traded to a fresh trend high Friday. Bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a 1.618 projection of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing. The trend has entered overbought territory and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support is seen at 1.1006, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and Friday’s gains have reinforced the current trend set-up. The pair has traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142/43, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This reinforces bullish conditions and opens 1.3261, a 1.382 projection of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing. First support is 1.3077, the Aug 22 low. USDJPY is softer and continues to trade below the Aug 15 high. The trend structure is bearish and MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance is at 148.08, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a 1.50 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at $2461.3, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract has also traded higher today. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and a bearish theme remains intact following the strong sell-off between Aug 12 - 21. The recent move down exposes key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. Initial resistance is $76.26, the 50-day EMA.
• In the FI space, the trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont). The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.11, the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 1.1300Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1202 Intraday
• PRICE: 1.1182 @ 06:02 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 1.1098/1006 Low Aug 22 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0904 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0736 Low Jul 3

EURUSD traded to a fresh trend high Friday. Bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s appreciation reinforces a bullish set-up. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 1.1234 next, a Fibonacci projection. The trend has entered overbought territory and any corrective pullback would allow this condition to unwind. Key short-term support is seen at 1.1006, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3261 1.382 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3230 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 1.3202 @ 06:09 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 1.3077 Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 1.3044/2930 High Jul 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2821/2665 50-day EMA / Low Aug 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support

GBPUSD bullish conditions remain intact and Friday’s gains have reinforced the current trend set-up. The pair has traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142/43, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This reinforces bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3261, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch is 1.2930, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8593/8625 High Aug 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8512/8545 20-Day EMA / High Aug 21
• PRICE: 0.8472 @ 06:16 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 0.8453 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.8440 61.8% retracement of the Jul 17 - Aug 8 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8418 Low Aug 1
• SUP 4: 0.8411 Low Jul 30

EURGBP maintains a weaker short-term tone and the cross traded lower last week. The move down has allowed a recent overbought condition. The 50-day EMA has given way and a clear break of it is a concern for bulls. The move lower exposes 0.8440, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8545, Aug 21 high. A move higher and a break of this level would signal a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30
• RES 3: 151.96 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.89 High Aug 1
• RES 1: 148.08 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 143.99 @ 06:21 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 143.45 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28

USDJPY is softer and continues to trade below the Aug 15 high. Firm resistance at the 20-day EMA is intact. The trend structure is bearish and MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up. A stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance is at 148.08, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
• RES 3: 165.50 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 164.10 200 DMA
• RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
• PRICE: 161.19 @ 06:49 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

EURJPY is in consolidation mode and trades just below its recent highs. The outlook is bearish, and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The latest move higher has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance at 162.94, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 165.50. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6776 @ 07:24 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 0.6697/6639 Low Aug 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and Friday’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The latest gains have cancelled a recent bearish theme. Price has cleared 0.6693, 76.4% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg. The clear break of this price point strengthens a bullish theme and sights are on 0.6799, the Jul 11 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6697, the Aug 22 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Accelerates

• RES 4: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3791 High Aug 7
• RES 2: 1.3641/3686 High Aug 20 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3617 High August 23
• PRICE: 1.3508 @ 07:29 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 1.3499 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 1.3471 61.8% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg

USDCAD traded lower last week, marking an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. Friday’s sharp sell-off also reinforces a bearish theme. Furthermore, 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish condition. This sets the scene for an extension towards 1.3471, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3617, Friday’s intraday high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 3: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6
• PRICE: 134.59 @ 05:40 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 134.15 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 132.08 Low Jul 26
• SUP 4: 131.62 Low Jul 22 and a key support

The trend condition in Bund futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bullish. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared on Jul 29, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too. A resumption of the trend would open 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The recent pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 134.11, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 2: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6
• PRICE: 118.000 @ 05:50 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 117.727 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.256/116.700 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 116.320 Low Jul 22
• SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11

Bobl futures are trading within a range. The uptrend is intact and the pullback from the Aug 5 high appears to be a correction. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a breach of a key resistance at 117.160, the Jun 14 high. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. First resistance is at 118.300, the Aug 14 high. Initial firm support is 117.727, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support At The 20-Day EMA Stays Intact

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 1: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 106.220 @ 06:01 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 106.181 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.993/820 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. For now, the contract continues to trade above a firm support at 106.181, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would be seen as an early bearish threat. Support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 105.993. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal the end of the corrective cycle and open 106.916, a Fibonacci projection.

BTP TECHS: (U4) 120.00 Has Been Pierced

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 120.00/06 Psychological round number / High Aug 22
• PRICE: 119.76 @ Close Aug 23
• SUP 1: 119.05/118.27 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend in BTP futures remains bullish. Resistance at 119.57, the Aug 2 high, has been breached and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle. The break opens the 120.00 handle next (pierced). Price remains above initial firm support at 119.05, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 118.27. A clear breach of both EMAs would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 115-30+ 2.764 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 115-17 2.618 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 115-03+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 114-03/114-16 High Aug 6 / 76.4% of the Aug 5 - 8 pullback
• PRICE: 113-21+ @ 15:45 BST Aug 23
• SUP 1: 112-28 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-26+ 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 111-06+ Low Jul 29
• SUP 4: 110-18+ Low Jul 22

A bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact and the contract is trading above support. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to highlight bullish sentiment. The recent breach of 111-01, Jun 14 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on 115-17, a Fibonacci projection. The recent move down is considered corrective. Support to watch is 112-28, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 5087.00 High Jul 12
• RES 3: 4997.00 High Jul 17
• RES 2: 4951.00 High Jul 31 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 4935.00 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 4905.00 @ 06:12 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 4831.56 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4665.00/4494.00 Low Aug 9 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont)

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher last week and the pair is holding on to its latest gains. The contract has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4870.23. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low.

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance
• RES 1: 5665.25 High Aug 23
• PRICE: 5652.75 @ 07:11 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 5493.52 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5438.75/5319.50 Low Aug 14 / 9
• SUP 3: 5182.00 Low Aug 8
• SUP 4: 5120.00 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 5600.75, the Aug 1 high and this signals scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. On the downside, support to watch lies at 5493.52, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $84.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 low
• RES 1: $80.52/82.40 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: $79.55 @ 06:55 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: $75.05 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
• SUP 2: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

Brent futures have recovered from their recent lows. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme remains intact following the recent reversal lower. The extent of the pullback signals scope for a test of key support at $75.05, the Aug 5 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg that started Apr 12. The next firm resistance is seen at $80.52, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (V4) Gains Appear To Be Corrective

• RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $76.26/78.54 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: $75.36 @ 07:04 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: $70.88 - Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.43 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract has also traded higher today. The latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective and a bearish theme remains intact following the strong sell-off between Aug 12 - 21. The recent move down exposes key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend that started Apr 12. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $78.54, the Aug 12 high.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
• PRICE: $2510.4 @ 07:09 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: $2461.3 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $2406.0/2353.2 50-day EMA / Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support

Gold remains in a bull-mode condition and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of resistance at $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2461.3, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
• PRICE: $29.983 @ 07:52 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: $29.045/26.451- Low Aug 15 / 8
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low and this exposed at key support at $26.018, May 2 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the 50-day EMA has been cleared and is a concern for bears. A continuation higher would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.