MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Fade Off Highs Keeps USDJPY Resistance Intact

Price Signal Summary – Fade Off Highs Keeps USDJPY Resistance Intact

• The pullback in S&P E-Minis from recent highs has now cracked first material support at the 20-day EMA of 4745.34. This strengthens a short-term bearish threat and exposes 4696.72, the lower band of a MA envelope. A move through this support would expose the 50-day EMA, at 4650.64. The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4439.30, the 50-day EMA.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. Attention is on 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 1.2881. USDJPY is starting off today’s session on a slightly softer note. The move lower from Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.32 - is intact for now. The trend outlook remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The broader USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the recent recovery is considered corrective. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3471.
• The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher continues to suggest the Dec 4 - 13 pullback was a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2097.1. Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is $75.02, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
• Bund futures ended last week’s session on a softer note despite Friday’s bounce from the low of the day. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper short-term reversal, which would open 134.68 ahead of the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures started the year on a softer note. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA suggesting scope for a bearish continuation near-term. Note that the contract has also traded through 100.36, the lower band of a MA envelope.

EURUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0937 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 1.0877 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The recent pullback looks corrective in nature, with prices remaining above the trendline - at 1.0885 today - drawn off the Nov 1 low. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Furthermore, a golden cross in the DMA space (50- rising above the 200-dma), is a bullish signal. Support to watch is 1.0877, Friday’s low. The bull trigger is 1.1139, the Dec 28 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2707 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 1.2611/2580 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is trading closer to its recent trend highs. Attention is on 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support lies at 1.2611, Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2580. A break of this support zone would undermine the bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Presents

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8650 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8609 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 0.8600 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP maintains a short-term bearish tone and the cross is trading just above last week’s low. The recent break below the 50-day EMA reinforces a bearish theme and a continuation lower open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8650, is first resistance.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance Around The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 3: 146.59 High Dec 11
• RES 2: 145.97 High Jan 05 and short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 145.32 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 144.24 @ 06:45 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 142.86 Low Jan 4 140.23
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY is starting off today’s session on a slightly softer note. The move lower from Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.32 - is intact for now. The trend outlook remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 140.25, the Dec 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 145.97, Friday’s high. A break would be a bullish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Resistance

• RES 4: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 3: 160.07 61.8% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 2: 159.34 50 DMA
• RES 1: 159.00 High Jan 05
• PRICE: 157.77 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 156.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY traded higher Friday and pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA of 158.20 as well as the Dec 19 high of 158.57. A clear break of these two levels is required to strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher. This would open 159.34, the 50-dma and 160.07, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger reversal would instead expose support at 155.08, the Jan 2 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• PRICE: 0.6694 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 0.6641 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 0.6596 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 26 low
• SUP 3: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support

AUDUSD snapped the six-session losing streak into the Friday close, steadying the YTD sell-off in the pair. The recent move lower is considered corrective and the medium-term trend direction remains up. Moving average studies highlight an uptrend and trendline support drawn from the late October low remains intact. The trendline lies at 0.6596 today. On the upside key resistance is unchanged at 0.6871, the Dec 28 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3482 200-dma
• RES 2: 1.3471 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3399/3409 High Jan 05 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.3387 @ 08:17 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 1.3229/3177 Low Jan 2 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 2: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3010 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2022 bull phase

The broader USDCAD trend outlook remains bearish and the recent recovery is considered corrective. A continuation higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3471. This average represents an important resistance and a clear break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. A reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to 1.3177, the Dec 27 low and bear trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Momentum Studies Point South

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.26 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.69 @ 05:18 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 135.06 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 134.68 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.42 Low Dec 4

Bund futures ended last week’s session on a softer note despite Friday’s bounce from the low of the day. Weakness below the 20-day EMA risks a deeper short-term reversal, which would open 134.68 ahead of the key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.686 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 118.420 @ 05:19 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 118.050 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 117.800 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.720 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 117.510 Low Dec 4

Bobl futures traded lower last week and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The move through the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback and this has exposed support at 117.800 ahead of the 50-day EMA at 117.720. Clearance of both support levels would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Has Breached The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.395 Low Jan 2
• PRICE: 106.200 @ 05:38 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 106.055 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 105.955 Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 4: 105.730 Low Nov 30

Schatz futures traded lower Friday before recovering from the session low. The contract has breached support around the 20-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation of the corrective cycle. Further weakness would open the key short-term support of 105.955, the Dec 13 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 106.640, the Dec 29 high.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 101.02 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.66 @ Close Jan 05
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures started the year on a softer note. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA suggesting scope for a bearish continuation near-term. Note that the contract has also traded through 100.36, the lower band of a MA envelope. This has exposed 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Corrective Cycle Exposes Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.20 @ Close Jan 05
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 115.84 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

BTP futures traded lower Friday before recovering. The recent move lower is considered corrective. However, price has traded through support around the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 115.84. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4697.50 1.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jab 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4480.00 @ 05:54 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 4439.30 50-day EMA and a key support area
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

The primary trend direction in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains up and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. Key short-term support to watch lies at 4439.30, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 4634.00, the Dec 14 high and bull trigger.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4790.75/4841.50 High Jan 3 / High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4729.75 @ 06:54 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4696.72 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4841.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The pullback in S&P E-Minis from recent highs has now cracked first material support at the 20-day EMA of 4745.34. This strengthens a short-term bearish threat and exposes 4696.72, the lower band of a MA envelope. A move through this support would expose the 50-day EMA, at 4650.64. The recent move lower is considered corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 4841.50, the Dec 28 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $81.45 - High Dec 26 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $77.78 @ 07:01 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures remain below key short-term resistance at $81.45. The reversal off the late December highs means that price has not remained above the 50-day EMA. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction. The primary trend direction is down and a resumption of weakness would open $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $75.02/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
• PRICE: $72.82 @ 07:13 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Bearish conditions in WTI futures remain intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is $75.02, the 50-day EMA. The average was briefly pierced late December. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. For bears, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the trend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact, For Now

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2088.5 - High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2032.1 @ 07:18 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: $2011.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The Dec 13 reversal in Gold and the subsequent move higher continues to suggest the Dec 4 - 13 pullback was a correction. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, reflecting an uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4. Initial support to watch is $2011.3, the 50-day EMA. Key support lies at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low.

SILVER TECHS: Has Breached Trendline Support

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• PRICE: $23.011 @ 07:29 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: $22.510 - Low Dec 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver traded lower last week and in the process, breached the trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a continuation lower and open $21.883, the Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.