MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Fresh Cycle High In S&P E-Minis

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Resumes

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. The rally resulted in a break of initial resistance at 4050.75, the Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are on the 4100.00 level next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3912.50, the Nov 17 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle high. This maintains the uptrend that started in early October and confirms an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The 4000.00 handle has been pierced, this opens 4049.50 next, the Feb 23 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 3840, the Nov 17 low.
• In FX, EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and is firmer again today. However, the pair remains below 1.0497, the Nov 28 high. Monday’s price action continues to warn of a possible top - a shooting star candle that day highlights a bearish threat. An extension lower would expose key support at 1.0223, Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a short-term top. For bulls, a break of 1.0497, is required to resume recent bullish price action. GBPUSD trend conditions remain bullish and last week’s gains reinforced this, highlighting an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.2161, the 200-dma. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.2276, the Aug 10 high. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1829, the 20-day EMA. The USDJPY trend condition remains bearish and today’s move lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and sights are set on 135.49, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg. Resistance to watch is 139.89, yesterday’s high.
• On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The yellow metal recently breached $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm support is seen at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The latest bounce is considered corrective - for now. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on Monday’s low of $73.60 where a break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity. Initial resistance is at $81.97, the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a short-term uptrend despite the latest pullback. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA, highlighting a stronger short-term reversal. The focus is on 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.97. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish. Fresh cycle highs last week maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The bull trigger for a continuation of gains is 107.06, the Nov 24 high. Initial firm support lies at 104.78, the Nov 23 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Resistance At Monday’s High Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Nov 24 / Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0497 High Nov 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0450 @ 05:45 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.0291 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 1.0223/0198 Low Nov 21 / High Sep 12
• SUP 3: 1.0116 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday and is firmer again today. However, the pair remains below 1.0497, the Nov 28 high. Monday’s price action continues to warn of a possible top - a shooting star candle that day highlights a bearish threat. An extension lower would expose key support at 1.0223, Nov 21 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a short-term top. For bulls, a break of 1.0497, is required to resume recent bullish price action.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 122.93 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2276 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 1.2161 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2154 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 1.2103 @ 05:59 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.1873 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.1829 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1660 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1500 Round number support

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. Recent gains confirmed an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 1.2161 next, the 200-dma. Key short-term support to watch is 1.1829, the 20-day EMA. A break lower would concern bulls.

EURGBP TECHS: Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8680 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8633 @ 06:29 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

The EURGBP outlook is unchanged and the short-term outlook remains bearish. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this does suggest that the broader uptrend remains intact. A break of 0.8560 would threaten this bullish theme. Key resistance is at 0.8829, the Nov 9 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 142.52 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.25 High Nov 21 and key resistance
• RES 3: 141.14 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 138.12/139.89 Intraday high / High Nov 30
• PRICE: 136.39 @ 06:40 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 134.65 Low Aug 18
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

The short-term trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and today’s move lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and sights are set on 135.49, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position and this highlights current sentiment. Resistance to watch is 139.89, yesterday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 146.14 High Nov 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.26 Trendline drawn from the Oct 21 high
• RES 2: 144.67 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 143.68 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.53 @ 06:55 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 142.30 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 141.60 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg

EURJPY maintains a softer tone and price is trading lower again today. The cross has pierced support at 142.57, the Nov 11 low. A clear break of this price point would strengthen bearish conditions and pave the way for a move towards 141.60, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance is at 145.26, the trendline drawn from the Oct 21 high. A break of this line is required to signal a reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6842 1.618 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• PRICE: 0.6833 @ 07:03 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.6782/6641 Intraday low / Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: 0.6597/85 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish. Firm support to watch lies at 0.6597, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement instead. On the upside, Wednesday’s gains and today’s follow through have resulted in a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and 0.6842, a Fibonacci projection.

USDCAD TECHS: Fails To Clear Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3646 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.3410 @ 08:12 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.3383 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD has failed to confirm a clear break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3583. The reversal lower Wednesday, signals potential for a deeper pullback and this has opened support at 1.3317, the Nov 24/25 low. A breach of this support would expose 1.3226, the Nov 15 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance is at 1.3646, the Nov 29 high. A break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 144.29 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 142.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.60 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.04 @ 05:06 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 139.97/139.17 20-day EMA / Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 138.26 Low Nov 18
• SUP 3: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is trading above support. Sights are on resistance at 142.60, the Nov 24 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has recently traded above the 50-day EMA at 140.21. The clear break of this EMA highlights a stronger reversal. Potential is seen for a climb to 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.97.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Trading Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.700 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 120.590 @ 05:16 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 119.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: 119.180 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 118.710 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 118.260 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bobl futures have recently pierced resistance at 120.530, the Nov 10 high. The outlook is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 120.152. Price is trading above the EMA, a clear breach of it would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 119.180, the Nov 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Watching Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.075 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 107.045 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.940 @ 05:20 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures remain inside a range, with support at the Nov 8 low intact. The trend direction remains down - for now - however, a break higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.045. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.33 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 104.99 @ Close Dec 1
• SUP 1: 104.78 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish despite the latest move lower. Last week’s gains reinforced this condition. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up - if confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The focus is on a climb to 109.47 next, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 123.71 123.6 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.66 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.30 @ Close Dec 1
• SUP 1: 118.31/117.90 Low Nov 23 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.61 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.58 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 114.68 Low Nov 10

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The contract traded to fresh short-term cycle highs last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has also traded above the 120.00 handle, a clear break of it would reinforce current conditions. The focus is on 122.00 next. Initial firm support is at 117.90, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 115-03 1.764 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 115-00 High Sep 19
• RES 2: 114-04 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-27 High Nov 28
• PRICE: 113-12+ @ 19:28 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 112-23+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-11+ Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112-05+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-22 Low Nov 10

Treasury futures trend conditions remain bullish and today’s gains reinforce this theme. The recent break of the 50-day EMA strengthens the case for bulls. The contract has pierced 113-19+, the Nov 16 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend. Sights are on 114-04 next, the Oct 4 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support to watch is at 112-11+, the Nov 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• PRICE: 4016.00 @ 05:36 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 3921.00/3840.00 Low Nov 29 / 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 3713.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3562.00 Low Nov 3

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle high. This maintains the uptrend that started in early October and confirms an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, also strengthens the case for bulls. The 4000.00 handle has been pierced, this opens 4049.50 next, the Feb 23 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 3840, the Nov 17 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4088.25 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 3912.50/3897.59 Low Nov 17 / 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend and yesterday’s gains reinforce a bullish theme. The rally resulted in a break of initial resistance at 4050.75, the Nov 15 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 4100.00 level next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3912.50, the Nov 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $95.38 - High Nov 14
• RES 3: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 2: $89.46 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $88.09 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $86.73 @ 07:10 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $80.81 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 2: $79.68 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $77.04 - Low Jan 1 (cont)
• SUP 4: $75.75 - Low Dec 27 2021 (cont)

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bearish despite the latest recovery - gains are considered corrective. Price has recently pierced support at $82.30, the Nov 21 low. A clear breach of this level would expose key support and the bear trigger at $79.68, the Sep 26 low. Moving averages are in a bear mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. Resistance is at $88.09, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $92.53 - High Nov 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $89.20/92.53 - High Nov 11 /
• RES 2: $83.92 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $81.97 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $80.24 @ 07:50 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 2: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $66.04 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. Monday’s move lower resulted in a break of the bear trigger at $74.96, Sep 28 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has opened $73.38, a Fibonacci projection and the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $81.97, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1780.7 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $1745.1 - Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: $129.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and this week’s gains reinforce this condition. The yellow metal recently breached $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm support is seen at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low.

SILVER TECHS: Trades Through Resistance

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $23.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $22.582 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $22.094 @ 08:09 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $21.086/20.585 - 20-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.423 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal has traded higher to clear resistance at $22.251, the Nov 15 high. A continuation would reinforce bullish conditions and highlight an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $23.00 and $23.360, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $20.585, the Nov 21 low.