MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Trend Condition Remains Bearish

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp sell-off on Nov 26 and yesterday’s weakness reinforces the current bearish threat. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 4567.21. EUROSTOXX 50 futures stalled at yesterday’s high of 4153.00 and resumed its downtrend, trading below Friday’s low of 4032.00. The outlook remains bearish following the recent sell-off that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD traded in a somewhat volatile manner yesterday but remains closer to recent highs. Yesterday’s price action resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at 1.1371 today, plus a print above resistance at 1.1374, the Nov 18 high. GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday down to 1.3195 before rebounding to close around the middle of the day's range. The trend condition remains bearish however 1.3195 low represents an important short-term support given the volatile nature of yesterday’s session. The USDJPY short-term bearish threat remains in place. Tuesday's weakness saw prices test and show below key short-term support at 112.73, Nov 9 low before prices improved ahead of the close.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded lower yesterday and remains bearish. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMAs. WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday’s breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marked an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain above recent lows with key support defined at 170.31, Nov 24 low. Trend conditions remain bullish, reinforced by the most recent recovery. The break on Nov 19 of the 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. Gilt futures rallied late last week and the contract is holding onto the bulk of recent gains. The recovery removes recent bearish concerns and note that former resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short-term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1594/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1383/1.1464 High Nov 30 / High Nov 15
• PRICE: 1.1336@ 05:58 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.1236 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 1.1186/85 Low Nov 24 / Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘21 uptrend

EURUSD traded in a somewhat volatile manner yesterday but remains closer to recent highs. Yesterday’s price action resulted in a test of the 20-day EMA, at 1.1371 today, plus a print above resistance at 1.1374, the Nov 18 high. This suggests potential scope for an extension of the current corrective phase towards 1.1514, Nov 5 high. The broader trend remains bearish though with the bear trigger at 1.1186/85.

GBPUSD TECHS: 1.3195 Defined As A Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3607 High Nov 9
• RES 2: 1.3514/3607 High Nov 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3370/3433 High Nov 30 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3324 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.3195 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 1.3188 Low Dec 21 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3165 38.2% Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 Upleg
• SUP 4: 1.3113 2.0% 10-dma envelope

GBPUSD traded sharply lower yesterday down to 1.3195 before rebounding to close around the middle of the day's range. The trend condition remains bearish however 1.3195 low represents an important short-term support given the volatile nature of yesterday’s session. A break would resume the downtrend. A stronger near-term recovery though would expose the 20-day EMA at 1.3433.

EURGBP TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 0.8595 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8574 High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8544 76.4 retracement of the Nov 5 - 22 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8538 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 0.8507 @ 06:13 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.8465 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8411/8381 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 22
• SUP 3: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020

EURGBP traded higher Tuesday, extending the recent recovery from the Nov 22 low. The bounce is still considered a correction though. Trend conditions remain bearish and the focus is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. The next resistance to watch is at 0.8544, a Fibonacci retracement level. A break would suggest scope for an even stronger recovery and expose 0.8574 initially, the Nov 11 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Probes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 3: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 115.52 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 114.03 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.55 @ 06:16 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 112.53 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.32 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov rally
• SUP 4: 110.82 Low Oct 4

The USDJPY short-term bearish threat remains in place. Tuesday's weakness saw prices test and show below key short-term support at 112.73, Nov 9 low before prices improved ahead of the close. A clear break would open 112.08 next, a recent breakout level. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 114.03, the 20-day EMA. A break would ease the bearish threat. Key resistance though is unchanged at 115.52, the Nov 24 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Vulnerable Despite Recent Bounce

• RES 4: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 3: 130.21 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.99 High Nov 19
• RES 1: 129.60 High Nov 23 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 128.69 @ 06:22 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 127.49 Low Nov 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04/126.65 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 10
• SUP 4: 125.82 1.236 proj of the Jun1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing

EURJPY remains vulnerable despite holding above Monday’s low. A bearish theme dominates following the recent breach of 127.93, Sep 22 low. The break paves the way for a move towards 127.04, Feb 15 low and note that moving average studies also point south suggesting potential for a deeper sell-off further out. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 129.60, Nov 23 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 3: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 2: 0.7271/7274 Former channel base / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7198/7228 High Nov 26 / High Nov 24
• PRICE: 0.7169 @ 06:27 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 0.7063 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7028 Low Nov 3 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6991 Low Nov 2 2020

AUDUSD printed fresh YTD lows of 0.7063 on Tuesday. The outlook remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low reinforces the bearish theme. Furthermore, support at 0.7170, Sep 29 low has been cleared. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.7049 next, the Nov 4 2020 low. Initial resistance is 0.7198.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2896/2939 / High Sep 20 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.2837 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 1.2733 @ 06:31 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 1.2641 Low Nov 25
• SUP 2: 1.2600/2493 20-day EMA / Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger

USDCAD maintains a bullish theme and the pullback from Tuesday’s high is likely a correction. Price has recently cleared 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off as well as 1.2775, Sep 29 high. This strengthens the current bullish set-up and signals scope for strength towards 1.2896 next, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2641, Nov 25 low. A break would threaten the current trend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Probes Resistance

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 172.71 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 172.22 @ 05:08 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 171.14/170.31 Low Nov 26 / Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures remain above recent lows with key support defined at 170.31, N5ov 24 low. Trend conditions remain bullish, reinforced by the most recent recovery. The break on Nov 19 of the 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. Resistance at 172.57, Nov 22 high was probed yesterday, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Sub 170.31 levels would alter the picture.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.770 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 135.410 @ 05:17 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 135.034/020 50-day EMA / Nov 24 low
• SUP 2: 134.700 Low Nov 11
• SUP 3: 134.320 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2

Bobl futures remain above 135.034, the 50-day EMA. The outlook remains bullish, following the break on Nov 19 of 135.320, the Nov 15 high. This confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has opened 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond. Key short-term support is at 135.020, Nov 24 low. A break would signal a potential top.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.600 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.515 High Nov 26
• PRICE: 112.385 @ 05:09 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 112.354/112.286 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish and the recent dip is considered corrective. The contract recently probed resistance at 112.495, Nov 22 high. A clear breach would again confirm a resumption of the short-term uptrend and pave the way for gains towards 112.585 next, Mar 17 2020 high (cont). Moving average conditions remain in bull mode, reinforcing the positive theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.286, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H2) Price Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 127.69 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 127.36 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 127.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 126.87 High Nov 30
• PRICE: 126.28 @ Close GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 125.44 Low Nov 26 and gap high
• SUP 2: 124.94 High Nov 25 and gap low
• SUP 3: 124.48 Low Nov 25
• SUP 4: 124.17 Low Nov 24 and key support

Gilt futures rallied late last week and the contract is holding onto the bulk of recent gains. The recovery removes recent bearish concerns and note that former resistance at 125.96, Nov 22 high and the key short -term hurdle at 126.23, Nov 9 high have been breached. The break strengthens the near-term outlook for bulls and opens the 127.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 124.17, Nov 24 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Holding Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 152.20/153.12 High Nov 30 / High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 151.60 @ Close GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 149.59 Low Nov 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 149.41 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 3: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower in the first half of last week. The move down resulted in a break of support at 150.72, Nov 12 low that undermines the recent bull theme. A deeper sell-off would open 149.41, a Fibonacci retracement level and potentially lower. However, the contract has also bounced off 149.59, Nov 24 low. Key S/T resistance and the bull trigger is at 153.12, Nov 10 high. A break would reinstate a bullish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 3: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4304.50 Nov 24 high and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4168.00/4220.80 High Nov 29 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4102.50 @ 05:46 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 3995.00 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 3949.50 Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures stalled at yesterday’s high of 4153.00 and resumed its downtrend, trading below Friday’s low of 4032.00. The outlook remains bearish following the recent sell-off that resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of 4032.00 would open the key support at the 3949.50 Oct 6 low. On the upside, a move above 4304.50, the Nov 24 high is required to ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Tests The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• RES 1: 4669.75/4717.00 High Nov 29 / High Nov 26
• PRICE: 4607.00 @ 06:50 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 4567.21/4577.00 Low Nov 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp sell-off on Nov 26 and yesterday’s weakness reinforces the current bearish threat. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 4567.21. This average has in the past proved to be a reliable support and represents a key pivot level. If it manages to provide support, this would represent a potential bullish development and signal a base. A clear break however would highlight the risk of a deeper pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $84.66 - High Oct 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $81.88 - High Nov 24
• RES 2: $78.54 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $74.35/76.82 - High Nov 30 / Low Nov 22
• PRICE: 71.34 @ 07:04 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $67.45 - Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: $66.67 - Aug 24 low
• SUP 3: $62.95 - Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 4: $62.54 - Low May 21

Brent futures remain vulnerable and yesterday resumed their downtrend. The contract on Friday, cleared former support at $76.82, Nov 22 low to strengthen the current bearish condition and yesterday’s weakness has reinforced this theme. The break lower also marks an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on $66.67 next, the Aug 24 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $74.35.

WTI TECHS: (F2) Downside Risk

• RES 4: $83.30/83.83 - High Nov 10 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $79.23/80.68 - High Nov 24 / Low Nov 4 / High Nov 16
• RES 2: $76.39 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $72.93/74.76 - High Nov 29 / Low Nov 22
• PRICE: $68.54 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $64.43/39 - Low Nov 30 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: $60.77 - Low Aug 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: $59.63 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $58.31 - low Apr 21

WTI futures remain vulnerable. Friday’s breach of support at $74.76, low Nov 22 and the subsequent sharp sell-off confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marked an extension of the current bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. $69.58, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Oct rally, has been cleared and $66.21, the 76.4% retracement was breached yesterday. The focus is on $64.39. Initial firm resistance is seen at $74.76.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching The Channel Base

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/87.1 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 1: $1815.6/49.1 - High Nov 26 / High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1786.7@ 07:37 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $1759.6 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1690.6 - Low Aug 9

Gold traded lower yesterday and remains bearish. The yellow metal sold off sharply early last week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has also traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMAs. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1759.6. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1815.6, the Nov 26 high.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Lower

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• RES 1: $23.893 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.864 @ 08:15 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: $22.756 - Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 rally

Silver continues to trade lower. The metal has breached support at $23.020, Nov 23 low and recently cleared the 50-day EMA. The break suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback with the focus on $22.213, Oct 6 low. For bulls, a move above $25.406, Nov 16 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme and a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at $23.893.