MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - GBP/USD Weakness Works Against Bullish Trend

Price Signal Summary – GBP/USD Weakness Works Against Bullish Trend

• S&P E-Minis continue to trade above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading just above the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle.
• GBPUSD is trading lower today. Despite this, the trend remains bullish and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881. USDJPY is trading higher and approaching last week’s high. The breach on Jan 11 of resistance at 145.97, Jan 5 high, undermines a recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation of the bull cycle. This has opened 147.32, the Dec 7 high. AUDUSD has started the week on a bearish note and is again trading lower today. The pair has breached 0.6634, trendline support drawn from the late October low.
• Gold continues to trade above last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2016.8 the 50-day EMA. A breach of both support points would expose a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.44, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18.
• Bund futures remain in consolidation mode and a bear threat is present. The recent move below the 20-day EMA highlights scope for a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Gilt futures are in consolidation mode. Recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that signals scope for a move lower near-term. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle.

EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Trendline Support

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1077 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Jan 5 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• PRICE: 1.0913 @ 05:44 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.0877 Low Jan 5 05 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0793 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0724 Low Dec 8
• SUP 4: 1.0712 61.8% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg

EURUSD remains inside its recent range but is trading lower today. Price has pierced 1.0931, a trendline drawn from the Nov 1 low. A clear break of this trendline would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper correction. An additional key support to watch lies at 1.0877, the Jan 5 low. A breach of this level would also reinforce bearish conditions. Resistance is at 1.0998, Jan 5 high. A move above this hurdle would ease bearish conditions.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2680 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.2614/2610 Low Jan 03 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2449 Low Nov 22
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

GBPUSD is trading lower today. Despite this, the trend remains bullish and price continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Sights are on resistance at 1.2827, the Dec 28 high and a bull trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is at 1.2611, the Jan 2 low. The 50-day EMA lies just below at 1.2614. Clearance of both support points would highlight a short-term top.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
• RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 0.8639 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8608 @ 06:09 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 0.8586 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 0.8571 Low Dec 15
• SUP 3: 0.8549 Low Dec 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 5

EURGBP is consolidating. A short-term bear threat remains present and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The break of the 50-day EMA earlier this month strengthens a bearish theme and a continuation lower would open 0.8571, the Dec 15 low, ahead of key support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.8715, the Dec 28 high. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8639, is the initial firm resistance to watch.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
• RES 3: 148.51 High Nov 30
• RES 2: 147.32 High Dec 7
• RES 1: 146.59 High Dec 11
• PRICE: 146.15 @ 06:32 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 144.23/143.42 20-day EMA / Low Jan 9 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 141.86 Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 139.11 2.236 proj of the Nov 13 - 21 - 22 price swing

USDJPY is trading higher and approaching last week’s high. The breach on Jan 11 of resistance at 145.97, Jan 5 high, undermines a recent bearish theme and instead highlights potential for a continuation of the bull cycle. This has opened 147.32, the Dec 7 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 143.42, the Jan 9 low. Clearance of this level is required to instead signal a top and highlight a resumption of bearish activity.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain IN The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 162.25 High Nov 29
• RES 2: 161.69 76.4% retracement of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg
• RES 1: 160.18 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 159.55 @ 06:48 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 157.21 Low Jan 9 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 155.08/153.23 Low Jan 02 / Dec 07 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 152.24 3.764 proj of the Nov 16 - 21 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 and a key support

EURJPY maintains a firmer tone. The recent rally strengthened a short-term bullish theme and resulted in a move through resistance at 158.57, the Dec 19 high. Note too that the 50-day EMA has also been cleared and 160.07, 61.8% of the Nov 16 - Dec 7 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break of 160.07 would open 161.69, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 157.21, the Jan 9 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Has Breached Trendline Support

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• PRICE: 0.6618 @ 07:58 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 0.6610 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6571 50.0% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6526 Low Dec 7 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec Upleg

AUDUSD has started the week on a bearish note and is again trading lower today. The pair has breached 0.6634, trendline support drawn from the late October low. A clear breach of the line would strengthen a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6571, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 0.6729, the Jan 12 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 1.3538 50.0% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3520 High Dec 14
• PRICE: 1.3491 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 2: 1.3288/3177 Low Jan 5 / Low Dec 27
• SUP 3: 1.3093 Low Jul 14 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3055 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD is trading higher today and this has resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3454. The break higher confirms an extension of the corrective bull cycle that started on Dec 27 last year. The move higher signals scope for a continuation and sights are on 1.3538, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that price is also through the 200 dma, a bullish development. Support to watch is 1.3343, the Jan 12 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 139.39 3.764 proj of the Nov of the 13 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 137.96/138.84 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 135.88 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 135.03 @ 05:17 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 134.87 Low Jan 10
• SUP 2: 134.37 Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 133.42 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 132.89 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase

Bund futures remain in consolidation mode and a bear threat is present. The recent move below the 20-day EMA highlights scope for a deeper correction, opening key support at the Dec 8 low of 134.37. Momentum studies are pointing south, also highlighting the short-term bearish threat. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 138.84, the Dec 27 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 135.88, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24 (cont)
• RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.640/830 High Jan 4 / High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 118.640 High Aug 8
• PRICE: 118.090 @ 05:34 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 117.900 Low Jan 10 / 11
• SUP 2: 117.836/800 50-day EMA / Low Dec 8 and a key support
• SUP 3: 117.510 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 117.060 Low Dec 1

A bearish corrective cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces a bear theme. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA highlights potential for a deeper pullback, exposing 117.800, Dec 8 low, Note that the 50-day EMA lies at 117.836. Clearance of both support points would strengthen a bearish threat. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 119.830, the Dec 27 high. Initial resistance is at 118.640, the Aug 8 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Short-Term Trend Needle Continues To Point South

• RES 4: 106.774 1.618 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 3: 106.698 1.50 proj of the Nov 24 - 30 minor price swing
• RES 2: 106.640 High Dec 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.270/360 High Jan 5 and 12 / Low Jan 3
• PRICE: 106.085 @ 05:28 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 105.935 Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: 105.780 Low Dec 1
• SUP 3: 105.730 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 105.660 High Nov 17

A bear threat in Schatz futures remains, despite the gap higher last Friday. Key short-term support at 105.955, the Dec 13 low, was breached last week. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 105.780 next, the Dec 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 106.270, the Jan 5 / 12 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would ease bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Flag Formation Reinforces Bear Threat

• RES 4: 103.94 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 103.33 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 101.98 High Jan 3
• RES 1: 100.63 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 100.07 @ Close Jan 15
• SUP 1: 99.60 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 98.97 High Dec 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 97.39 Low Dec 11
• SUP 4: 96.67 Low Dec 5

Gilt futures are in consolidation mode. Recent price action appears to be a bear flag - a bearish continuation pattern that signals scope for a move lower near-term. The recent breach of the 20-day EMA, also suggests scope for a continuation of the current bear cycle. This has exposed support at 98.97, the Dec 6 high. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 101.98, the Jan 3 high. A break would ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 122.63 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 122.18 3.00 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 121.43 2.764 proj of the Nov 10 - 17 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 119.77 High Jan 4
• PRICE: 118.50 @ Close Jan 15
• SUP 1: 117.24 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 116.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.18 Low Dec 4
• SUP 4: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle

The recent move down in BTP futures appears to be a correction. However, price has recently traded through support around the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a continuation lower near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 116.36 - a key support. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 119.77, the Jan 4 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 121.43, the Dec 27 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Watching Support

• RES 4: 4662.90 1.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4636.70 76.4% retracement of the 2000 - 2009 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 4599.00/4634.00 High Jan 2 / High Dec 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4536.00 High Jan 11
• PRICE: 4455.00 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 4448.80/4444.0 50-day EMA and a key support / Low Jan 5
• SUP 2: 4370.00 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 4334.00 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 - Dec 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4220.00 Low Nov 10

Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading just above the Jan 5 low of 4444.0. The primary trend direction is up and the recent move lower is considered corrective. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a rising trend cycle. However, a break of 4444.00 and 4450.00, the 50-day EMA, would undermine a bullish theme. This would open 4370.00, the Nov 28 low. For bulls, the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 4634.00, the Dec 14 high.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4915.11 1.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4900.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4854.75 1.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 4841.50 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4797.50 @ 06:57 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: 4702.00 Low Jan 05
• SUP 2: 4690.70 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 3: 4679.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

S&P E-Minis continue to trade above the Jan 5 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 4841.50, the Dec 28 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend and open 4854.75, a Fibonacci projection. Support at the 20-day EMA of 4770.92 has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish threat and open the 50-day EMA, at 4679.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (H4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $86.50 - High Nov 3
• RES 3: $85.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $84.22 - High Nov 30
• RES 1: $80.75/81.45 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: $78.20 @ 06:52 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $74.79 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $72.67/71.21 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger / Low Jun 23
• SUP 3: $69.25 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $67.84 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 20 - Nov 16 - 30 price swing

Brent futures failed to hold on to last Friday’s high and the contract remains below key short-term resistance at $81.45, Dec 26 high. The outlook is bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. This suggests that the Dec 13 - 26 recovery was a correction. Attention is on $72.67, the Dec 13 low and bear trigger. Clearance of $81.45 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

WTI TECHS: (G4) Moving Average Studies Highlight A Downtrend

• RES 4: $84.18 - High Oct 24
• RES 3: $82.64 - High Nov 3
• RES 2: $79.67 - High Nov 30 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $74.44/76.18 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $72.52 @ 07:09 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $69.28 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 2: $67.98 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $65.24 - Low May 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $63.79 - 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 6 - Oct 20 price swing

Trend signals in WTI futures remain bearish and the pullback from Friday’s high reinforces this theme. Resistance to watch is $74.44, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and expose $76.18, the Dec 26 high. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $67.98, Dec 13 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Above Support

• RES 4: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 2: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $2064.0/2088.5 - High Jan 5 / High Dec 28
• PRICE: $2049.5 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $2016.8/2013.4 - 50-day EMA / Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold continues to trade above last week’s low of $2013.4 (Jan 11). Price is also trading ahead of key support at $2016.8 the 50-day EMA. A breach of both support points would expose a key level at $1973.2, the Dec 13 low. For bulls, clearance of $2088.5 would reinstate the bull cycle that started Dec 13. This would open $2097.1, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg, ahead of key resistance and the Dec 4 all-time high of $2135.4.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Threat Following Break Of Trendline Support

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.793 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $23.105 @ 07:27 GMT Jan 16
• SUP 1: $22.476 - Low Jan 11
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent weakness in Silver has resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Oct 5 low. This highlights a bearish threat and exposes key support at $22.510, Dec 13 low. This level was pierced last week, a clear break of it would open $21.883, Nov 13 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance is at $24.606, the Dec 22 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bullish theme.