MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Reinforce Bearish Conditions

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Reinforce Bearish Conditions

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback last week appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on the first support 4411.98, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4368.50, the Jun 26 low and a key support. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower last week, clearing a number of key support levels in the process. The contract has breached 4241.00, the May 31 low. This highlights a potential reversal and signals scope for weakness.
• GBPUSD traded higher again Friday, ending the week on a firm note. This reinforces bullish conditions and attention is on key resistance at 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection and Friday’s intraday high. USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday, ending the week on a bearish note. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and attention is on 142.24, the former bull channel top. This level has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper correction. AUDUSD remains inside its recent range. The trend condition is bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent break of these averages suggests scope for a deeper retracement.
• Gold is consolidating. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Recent fresh lows reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract has breached resistance at $72.72, the Jun 21 high, This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and a continuation would expose key resistance.
• Bund futures remain soft following last week’s extension lower. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Gilt futures remain soft and last week’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions. The contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 2: 1.1012 High Jun22 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0977 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0955 @ 05:50 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.0888 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0835 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0824/04 50.0% of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally / Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.0779 61.8% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 22 rally

EURUSD traded higher Friday. The bounce affirms the view that the recent pullback has been corrective. The recovery from support at 1.0835, the Jun 30 low, has resulted in a break of 1.0934, the Jul 3 high. This reinforces a bullish condition and opens 1.0977, the Jun 27 high, ahead of the bull trigger at 1.1012, the Jun 22 high. Key support has been defined at 1.0835 where a clear break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3035 High Apr 22 2022
• RES 3: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 1: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• PRICE: 1.2813 @ 06:01 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.2688/2674 20-day EMA / Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 1.2587/86 Trendline drawn from the Mar 8 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

GBPUSD traded higher again Friday, ending the week on a firm note. This reinforces bullish conditions and attention is on key resistance at 1.2849, a Fibonacci projection and Friday’s intraday high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.2877, the Apr 25 2022 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2674, the Jul 6 low. A break would represent a short-term bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: Eyeing Key Support And The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8627/58 50-day EMA / 28 and a short-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8582 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8551 @ 06:34 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8495 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2022

The primary trend direction in EURGBP is down and last week’s continuation lower reinforces a bearish theme. Sights are on the bear trigger at 0.8518, the Jun 19 low, where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in bear-mode position, highlighting current trend conditions. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8658, the Jun 28 high. A break of this hurdle would highlight a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Testing Support At The Former Channel Top

• RES 4: 147.00 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 2: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 144.20/145.07 High Jul 7 / Jun 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.88 @ 06:17 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 142.24 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 low
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 141.21 Low Jun 20
• SUP 4: 140.30 50-day EMA

USDJPY traded sharply lower Friday, ending the week on a bearish note. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and attention is on 142.24, the former bull channel top. This level has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper correction and open 140.30, the 50-day EMA. Longer-term, the primary trend direction remains up. The bull trigger is at 145.07, the Jun 30 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.32 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 157.12/158.00 High Jul 6 / High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 156.42 @ 06:53 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 155.48/06 20-day EMA / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 154.05 Low Jun 20
• SUP 3: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 152.42 50-day EMA

The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest move lower appears to be a correction - for now. This corrective phase has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind and attention is on the next support at 155.48, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at 152.42. For bulls, clearance of 158.00, the Jun 28 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.6857 High Jun 20
• RES 3:0.6768 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 0.6806 High Jun 22
• RES 1: 0.6721/0.6724 High Jun 27 / 1.0% 10-dma Envelope
• PRICE: 0.6648 @ 07:58 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD remains inside its recent range. The trend condition is bearish and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The recent break of these averages suggests scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of weakness would open 0.6562, 76.4% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6721, the Jun 27 high. A break would suggest scope for a stronger correction.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 1.3449 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.3391 50-dma
• RES 1: 1.3386/87 50.0% of the May 26 - Jun 27 downleg / High Jul 7
• PRICE: 1.3282@ 08:06 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 1.3266 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.3203 Low Jul 4 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3117 Low Jun 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing

USDCAD reversed course Friday. The move lower highlights a potential bearish pattern - an engulfing candle pattern. If correct, this signals the end of the recent bull cycle and suggests scope for a continuation lower near-term towards 1.3203 initially, the Jul 4 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.3387, the Jul 7 high. A break would cancel any developing bearish threat and resume recent gains.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 3: 134.14/135.00 High Jul 3 / High Jun 27
• RES 2: 133.19 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 132.18/65 Low Jun 16 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 130.88 @ 05:18 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 130.61 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 130.46 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 129.93 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 129.49 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 16 - 27 price swing

Bund futures remain soft following last week’s extension lower. Price has cleared key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low. The clear break strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the downtrend. This opens 130.46, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in bear-mode position, reinforcing bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 132.18, the Jun 16 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 116.280 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 115.910 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 115.732 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.320 Low Jun 22
• PRICE: 114.740 @ 05:15 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 114.550 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 114.432 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.130 Low Mar 6 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 114.090 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures traded sharply lower last week, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 114.130, the Mar 6 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is at 115.320, the Jun 22 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 105.185 High Jun 15
• RES 3: 105.130 High Jun 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 104.980 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 104.800/915 High Jul 7 / 3
• PRICE: 104.725 @ 05:33 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 104.570 Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.335 Low Mar 9 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 104.264 2.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend following last week’s continuation lower. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.470 next, a Fibonacci projection (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 104.980, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Is Through Key Support

• RES 4: 96.19 High Jun 29
• RES 3: 95.55 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 95.02 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.88 Low Jun 20 and a key breakout level
• PRICE: 92.73 @ Close Jul 7
• SUP 1: 92.09 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 92.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 91.80 1.382 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 91.36 1.50 proj of the Jun 1 - 20 - 23 price swing (cont)

Gilt futures remain soft and last week’s break lower reinforces bearish conditions. The contract has cleared key support at 93.88, the Jun 20 low, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for a move to 91.80 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 93.88. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.52 High Jul 3
• RES 2: 115.60 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 114.61 Low Jun 15
• PRICE: 113.63 @ Close Jul 7
• SUP 1: 113.15/01 76.4% of the May 26 - Jun 26 bull leg / Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.00 Round number support

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last week reinforces a bearish theme and confirms an extension of the reversal from 117.60, the Jun 26 high. The focus is on 113.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. This level was pierced Friday, a clear break would open 111.78, the May 26 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.60, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this level would ease the current bearish threat.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bear Threat Remains present

• RES 4: 4472.24 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont) and key resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 4332.30 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4249.00 @ 06:06 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 4220.00 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 4208.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4152.20 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 3 bull cycle

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower last week, clearing a number of key support levels in the process. The contract has breached 4241.00, the May 31 low. This highlights a potential reversal and signals scope for weakness towards 4208.50, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 4332.30, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4562.88 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 3: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4498.00 High Jun 30
• PRICE: 4415.25 @ 06:48 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 4411.98/4368.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4326.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4316.29 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 13 low
• SUP 4: 4269.50 Low Jun 2

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the pullback last week appears to be a correction - for now. Attention is on the first support 4411.98, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 4368.50, the Jun 26 low and a key support. The bull trigger is at 4498.00, the Jun 16 high. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 4532.08, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U3) Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: $84.02 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.06 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 bear leg
• RES 2: $79.94 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 12 - May 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $78.61 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $77.93 @ 07:01 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $75.03/71.43 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.00 - Low Jul 6 / May 4
• SUP 3: $69.95 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher again Friday, extending the recovery from $71.86, the Jun 28 low. The contract has pierced resistance at $78.47, the Jun 5 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $79.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term support has been defined at $75.03, the Jul 6 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible top.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $74.00/75.70 - Intraday high / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $73.28 @ 07:13 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $69.69/66.96 - Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 12 and key support
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and the contract has breached resistance at $72.72, the Jun 21 high, This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and a continuation would expose key resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. A break of this level would highlight an important bullish break. On the downside, key short-term support is at $66.96, the Jun 12 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 3: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 2: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1945.1 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1920.8 @ 07:16 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $1893.1 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Gold is consolidating. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Recent fresh lows reinforce bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1945.1, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.436/24.530 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 9 and key resistance
• PRICE: $23.074 @ 08:09 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Recent Silver gains still appear to be a correction. Resistance to watch is at $23.436, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement with key resistance at $24.530, the Jun 9 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would open $22.111, the Jun 23 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for a move to $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement.