MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gilt Futures Remain in Downtrend

Price Signal Summary – Gilt Futures Remain in Downtrend

• The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher last week and in the process cleared a number of important short-term resistance levels. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The contract is holding onto last week’s gains and the move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3878.10.
• EURUSD probed key short-term resistance at 1.1121 last week, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. This improves the near-term outlook however a clear break is still required to signal potential for a stronger recovery near-term. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Last week’s important technical break was the breach of resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This reinforced bullish conditions, and the pair is approaching the psychological 120.00 handle. AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone. The pair defined a key short-term support last week at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. The strong reversal from this low signaled a potential resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 28.
• Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the recent pullback is considered corrective. WTI futures have recovered from last Tuesday’s low of $93.53. This means the 50-day EMA, at $94.32 today, remains intact and has also provided a firm short-term support.
• Current Bund futures consolidation appears to be a bear flag, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The contract last week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Short-term gains are considered corrective with initial resistance at 123.52, the Mar 9 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1193/1200 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 1.1037 @ 06:20 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.1003 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD probed key short-term resistance at 1.1121 last week, the Jan 28 low, a recent breakout level plus the Mar 10 high. This improves the near-term outlook however a clear break is still required to signal potential for a stronger recovery near-term. This would open 1.1187, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope as well as the 50-day EMA of 1.1199. A reversal lower would instead open the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3360 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27
• RES 2: 1.3234 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3211 High Mar 17
• PRICE: 1.3156 @ 06:25 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.3088/3000 Low Mar 17 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933/2892 Low Nov 5 2020 / 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is trading closer to recent highs. The trend outlook remains bearish though and last week’s gains are still considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the recent break of 1.3163, Dec 12 low, that confirmed a resumption of the broader downtrend. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bear mode. The bear trigger is 1.3000, Mar 15 low. Resistance to watch is at 1.3234, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8458 Mar 17 High
• PRICE: 0.8394 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.8355/17 Low Mar 14 / Low Mar 9
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP is consolidating and trading closer to last week’s highs. The short-term outlook remains bullish. The cross has recently traded above 0.8406, the Feb 25 high. This has strengthened the short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a climb towards the next resistance at 0.8478, the Feb 7 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8317, the Mar 9 low. A break would highlight a potential reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Its Bull Channel Top

• RES 4: 121.04 High Feb 2 2016
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 119.90 Bull channel top drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high
• RES 1: 119.55 3.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
• PRICE: 119.17 @ 17:11 GMT Mar 18
• SUP 1: 118.18 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 117.28/116.77 Low Mar 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.35 High Jan 4
• SUP 4: 115.74 50-day EMA

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Last week’s important technical break was the breach of resistance at 118.60/66, the Jan 3 ‘17 and Dec 15 ‘16 highs. This reinforced bullish conditions and the pair is approaching the psychological 120.00 handle. Initial support is at 118.18. Note too that the USD is also approaching the top of a bull channel, at 119.90, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high - an important chart point and resistance.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Conditions Remain Intact

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 132.69 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 131.91/93 High Feb 16, Mar 18
• PRICE: 131.66 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 129.37 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.42 Low Mar 10
• SUP 3: 126.01 Low Mar 9
• SUP 4: 124.40 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURJPY remains in a short-term uptrend and the cross traded higher again Friday. All key retracement levels of the recent Feb - Mar downleg have been cleared and price remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Recent gains signal potential for an extension towards the key resistance at 133.15, the Feb 10 high. Initial support is seen at 129.37 the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.7556 High oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 2: 0.7444 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.7441 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7399 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 0.7279/37 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.7095 Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 0.7080 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 7 upleg

AUDUSD maintains a firmer tone. The pair defined a key short-term support last week at 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. The strong reversal from this low signalled a potential resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 28. Moving averages also remain in a bull mode, highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on 0.7441, the Mar 7 high and a bull trigger. Weakness below 0.7165 is needed to reinstate a bearish theme.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support At 1.2587 Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2723 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2610 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 1.2587 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support

USDCAD remains soft, following last week’s reversal from 1.2871, the Mar 15 high. The Mar 11 low of 1.2694 has been breached and this clear break signals potential for a deeper retracement that opens 1.2587 next, the Mar 3 low and a key near-term support. From a trend perspective, moving average studies still highlight a bull cycle. Clearance of 1.2901, Mar 8 high, is required though to highlight a resumption of the uptrend.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Bear Flag

• RES 4: 165.29 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 163.23 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 162.73 High Mar 14
• PRICE: 161.13 @ 05:10 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 160.56 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 160.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 159.81 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 159.19 Low Nov 8 2018 (cont)

Current Bund futures consolidation appears to be a bear flag, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The contract last week breached support at 161.50, Feb 10 low. This has strengthened the bearish theme and importantly, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 161.00 has also been cleared, opening the psychological 160.00 handle. Initial resistance is at 162.73.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 134.080 High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.390 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 132.590 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 131.473 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.560 @ 05:18 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 130.000 Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.554 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 4: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures are in a consolidation mode near recent lows. The bear cycle that started off 134.080, Mar 7 high remains intact. Support at 132.130, the Mar 1 low and 131.726, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 rally, have recently been cleared. This suggested potential for a continuation lower and support at 130.410, the Feb 8 low has also been probed. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions. Initial firm resistance is at 131.473.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Remains Closer To Recent Lows

• RES 4: 112.210 High Mar 7 and short-term key resistance
• RES 3: 112.015 High 8
• RES 2: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 111.481 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 111.285 @ 05:30 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 111.145 Low Feb 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111.100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 111.065 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)

Schatz futures traded to a fresh cycle low last Wednesday of 111.205. It is still possible that the recent move lower is a correction although the break of support at 111.655, Mar 3 low, suggests potential for a deeper pullback. Price action has also probed support at 111.240, the Feb 23 low and a key short-term chart point. A clear break would suggest potential for an extension lower. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.740.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bear Cycle Still In Play, Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 126.81 High Mar 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 2: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 123.52 High Mar 9 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 122.63 @ Close Mar 18
• SUP 1: 120.92 Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Short-term gains are considered corrective with initial resistance at 123.52, the Mar 9 high. The contract last week probed key support at 121.10, Feb 6 low and a bear trigger. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and strengthen bearish conditions. This would open 120.00.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 147.93 High Jan 31 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 146.74 High Mar 1
• RES 2: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 141.33/43.85 20-day EMA / High Mar 10
• PRICE: 140.17@ Close Mar 18
• SUP 1: 138.99 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 138.60 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 138.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)

BTP futures are consolidating near its recent lows. The recent break of support at 142.51, Mar 1 low, signalled an important breach that resulted in a move below 140.52, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb 16 - Mar 1 rally. This, together with the recent follow through, suggests scope for a continuation lower and has exposed key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 143.85, Mar 10 high.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4465.75 High Mar 18
• PRICE: 4441.50 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 4323.83 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

The trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract traded higher last week and in the process cleared a number of important short-term resistance levels. The 20-day EMA and late last week, the 50-day EMA, have both been cleared. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development and an extension would open 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4323.83, the 20-day EMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3878.10 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3781.00 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last Wednesday and as a result breached the 20-day EMA. The contract is holding onto last week’s gains and the move higher sets the scene for a stronger correction. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3878.10. The average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would strengthen a bullish short-term theme. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Starts The Week On A Firmer Note

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $131.64 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.36 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $113.91 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $110.94 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $96.98/93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 3: $88.25 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $86.31 - Low Feb 1

Brent futures are firmer this morning. The contract has managed to remain above key support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $96.98 today. A continuation higher would open resistance 113.91, the Mar 11 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Extends Bounce From Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: $130.50 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $126.84 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $114.88 - High Mar 10
• RES 1: $110-29 - High Mar 11
• PRICE: $108.25 @ 07:10 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $94.32/93.53 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $90.06 - Low Feb 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: $87.46 - Low Feb 18
• SUP 4: $85.24 - Low Feb 3

WTI futures have recovered from last Tuesday’s low of $93.53. This means the 50-day EMA, at $94.32 today, remains intact and has also provided a firm short-term support. A continuation higher would open resistance at $110.29, the Mar 11 high and a break of this level would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1954.7 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1924.2 @ 07:18 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $1895.3 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: $1892.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold short-term conditions remain bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition remains bullish however and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The move lower has also allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1892.5 next, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm S/T resistance is seen at $2009.2, the Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.009 @ 07:58 GMT Mar 21
• SUP 1: $24.473 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.301 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play despite the bounce off last Wednesday’s $24.473 low. Potential is seen for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal traded below the 20-day EMA last week and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.301. This EMA marks an important support. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.